A warming of + 1.5 ° C by 2024. This is what the British weather service forecasts for the next five years, which could be the hottest on record in the world.
In forecasts that study climate trends for the next ten years, the Met Office estimates that for each year of 2020 and 2024, the temperature should be 1.06 to 1.62 ° C higher than normal. And 2016, so far the hottest year on record, should "probably" be beaten during this period.
A planned volcanic eruption
"The latest five-year forecast suggests further warming, in line with high levels of greenhouse gases," commented forecaster Doug Smith. "There are uncertainties in these forecasts, but most regions are likely to be warmer," especially northern Europe, Asia and North America, he added.
Unless a major volcanic eruption slows down warming by blocking the sun's rays, the average temperature over the next five years should be between 1.15 and 1.46 ° C above the era pre-industrial. The average for 2015-2019, the hottest period on record, was 1.09 ° C.
"The window of opportunity is narrowing"
The Paris Climate Agreement aims to limit the temperature to + 2 ° C, ideally + 1.5 ° C by 2100, compared to the pre-industrial era, which would require drastic and immediate reductions greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activities. However, these continue to increase.
According to the Met Office, there is a "small risk" (around 10%) that one of the years between 2020 and 2024 will exceed the 1.5 ° C mark. But "a temporary exceedance of 1.5 ° C does not mean a transgression of the Paris Agreement," said Stephen Belcher, chief scientist of the British meteorological service. The scenarios of the UN climate experts (IPCC) are indeed based on long-term trends of increase in the average temperature and not a single year. "Despite everything, our forecasts showing a tendency for further warming, the window of opportunity is narrowing," he insisted.
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