• Wine laboratory: how great scientists became successful winemakers
  • Research: Global warming also threatens wine quality

Global warming is transforming landscapes and crops around the world. Wine producers - one of the sectors most affected by changes in the climate - are already working on how to adapt to a new reality that includes warmer summers, more severe droughts and increasingly pronounced weather events such as floods, frosts or storms of hail

"The wine is the canary in the mine in relation to the impact that climate change can have on agriculture, since the grapes are very sensitive," explains Benjamin Cook, a researcher at Columbia University. A study published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ( PNAS ) warns that a 4 ° C increase in temperatures would mean that 85% of the land suitable for growing wine grapes would cease to be.

In the event that global warming remained at 2 ° C - the least ambitious objective contemplated in the Paris Agreement - the wine regions would lose 56% of arable land. "The key is that it is still possible to adapt viticulture to a warmer world," warns Cook, one of the study's authors. "You just need to take the problem of climate change seriously."

To reach these conclusions, the researchers, led by Ignacio Morales-Castilla, of the University of Alcalá, and Elizabeth Wolkovich of the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, have focused on the analysis of 11 of the main strains grown today in the World: Cabernet Sauvignon, Chasselas, Chardonnay, Garnacha, Merlot, Monastrell, Pinot Noir, Riesling, Sauvignon Blanc, Syrah and Trebbiano .

The scientists created models of germination, flowering and maturation times for each strain in each of the world's main wine regions, all under three warming scenarios: 0º, 2º and 4 ° C. Then, they used these projections to determine where the cultivation of these strains will be viable in the future.

The results outline a possible adaptation strategy: the reorganization of varieties and regions , which could greatly reduce the loss of arable land. For example, in the French region of Burgundy, monastrell and garnacha, strains more adapted to heat, could replace current varieties, such as pinot noir.

"The regions that are colder today would become suitable for the cultivation of varieties better adapted to heat, while the crops of colder climates, such as pinot noir, could expand to other latitudes, " Morales-Castilla explains. In the scenario of an increase of 2ºC for the next decades, this reorganization could reduce the surface loss by half. But, if the heating reached 4 ° C, only one third could be saved.

Spain, Italy and Australia, the most vulnerable

The regions that have the hottest temperatures, as is the case in Spain, Italy or Australia, are the most vulnerable, since they are the ones that grow the warmest varieties and have less room to vary the strains. "It would be necessary to have individual results on each region to make specific recommendations," says Morales-Castilla.

"We must bear in mind that in our study we analyzed 11 varieties (only one of which is of Spanish origin), but there are hundreds on the peninsula." In this sense, Morales-Castilla is currently working in collaboration with experts from the Madrid Institute for Rural, Agrarian and Food Research and Development (IMIDRA), collecting data to generate specific predictions for the native varieties of Spain and Portugal , information that may later be used by producers.

On the opposite extreme, colder regions, such as Germany, New Zealand or the northwestern United States, could adapt relatively easily to the 2 ° C scenario, although they will have to change to heat-resistant varieties such as merlot and grenache. Strains that require cold temperatures, such as the aforementioned Pinot Noir, will have to spread to regions that have traditionally not been suitable for these crops.

In recent decades, England is constantly increasing the surface and quality of vineyards of this strain, and other northern countries such as Sweden and Norway are taking the first steps in the sector. In the southern hemisphere, producers in Argentina and Chile are exploring latitudes increasingly south.

Legal, cultural and financial challenge

The authors are aware that the change of strains entails important legal, cultural and financial challenges. "In Europe there are already talks about a new legislation that facilitates the main regions to change the varieties they grow," says Wolkovich, "but producers must still learn to grow these new varieties."

On the other hand, the authors conclude that management practices, such as increased irrigation or the use of shade meshes to cover crops, can also help protect the vineyards, but would only be effective at lower levels of global warming. .

"It is important to emphasize that the future remains in our hands, that there are opportunities to adapt viticulture to a warmer world ," reflects Morales-Castilla. "But, for this, it is necessary to seriously address the challenges posed by climate change and limit its scope as much as possible."

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