Sudan is stepping into the new year and is burdened with a legacy of challenges facing the transition process after the ouster of ousted President Omar al-Bashir's regime. In this article, Abdul Baqi Al-Dhafir monitors these challenges and possible scenarios about them.

In mid-January, Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdock was mediating the cover of the American Foreign Policy magazine. The informative article used to pity the newcomer of the world of Sudanese politics as he carried a heavy load on his back. Two days before the introductory article saw the light, Khartoum had witnessed a rebellion by some groups of the security and intelligence agency's Operations Authority forces. The Operations Authority has an estimated 12,000 well-trained fighters. Half of these forces refused to integrate into the armed forces after a decision was issued to demobilize them. The unique rebellion in Sudan's history was only a small indication of the difficulties and challenges the transitional government faces in the new year. But despite that darkness, a light awaits Sudan at the end of the tunnel.

Lucky man's government:
Weeks ago, I was walking on Shikan Street, which leads to Omdurman lanes of the revolution, which represents the third side of the triangular capital. Shikan is an important battle in the history of Sudan, where the Mahdia forces defeated the armies of the Egyptian-Turkish rule over Sudan. My attention caught a small place for car maintenance, and its owner renamed it Hamdok after the Prime Minister of the interim period, Dr. Abdullah Hamdouk .. On the far side of the place are other signs bearing the phrase “Thank you Hamdouk” and another bearing curses on the former rulers of Sudan who were isolated by the people in its glorious uprising in December. First 2018.

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The file of international relations and the dismantling of isolation struck in Sudan did not cost the government of Hamdok except the doorways. Most of the time, the New Year is certain to see the removal of Sudan’s name from the American list of terrorism-sponsoring countries.
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Passing this street with its historical symbolism puts you completely in front of the hopes that the Sudanese place on the transitional government and the great opportunities for 2020 to become a year of transition from the narrowness of totalitarianism to the vastness of democracy .. Opportunities are not confined to mere popular consensus or the broad support that the transitional government enjoys, the opportunities expand On an unprecedented welcome from the countries of the world ... almost no one is hostile to this government. Rather, the file of international relations and the dismantling of the international isolation struck in Sudan has cost the government of Hamdok only the ways of the doors. Often, it is certain that the new year will witness the removal of the name of Sudan from the American list of countries sponsoring terrorism. This is a new and important space that will enable Sudan to benefit from a lot of financial aid, including broad funding opportunities from international institutions. The Friends of Sudan conference - which includes Arab and Western countries and is scheduled to hold its crucial session next April - is expected to pump the funds Sudan needs with great urgency.

Peace is imperative and if travel is long:
Peace is within the reach of the Sudanese. All armed movements have laid down arms and engaged in negotiations in Juba, the capital of the state of South Sudan, and these negotiations may seem complicated and arduous, but in the end they will yield peace that ends decades of civil war that caused Sudan to split into two states in July 2011.

After the fall of the totalitarian regime in April 2019, war is no longer an option except for those who refuse peace and those who refuse peace will not find a financed supporter from the neighboring countries that seek to support the new government. Perhaps the most prominent evidence of the new Sudan’s position is the Djibouti abdication of the IGAD regional leadership in favor of Sudan.

But all of these opportunities can be squandered if the Sudanese do not improve the administration of the founding transition year 2020. The government faces huge challenges, including social peace .. The collapse of the former regime - which depended on the security grip in running the state’s wheel - tempted many groups to excessively violate the law It also happened from the forces of the Security and Intelligence Agency, which rebelled on January 14th.

In the last years’s conclusions, a simple dispute in a popular café in the city of El-Geneina in western Sudan turned into a tribal war that left about forty people dead and dozens wounded. The task of extinguishing that war made the Prime Minister pull travelers out there with some members of his government and prominent members of the Sovereign Council. The same events occurred in eastern Sudan last November, and forced Hamdok to take on the task of a firefighter as the warring tribes signed a fragile agreement that might be blown by the winds of differences at any time.

Social peace may increase, and here they are, after the return of the armed movements to the country with broad dreams, with a reality that cannot dream and a climate conducive to tribal disputes, as militias affiliated with the regime may raise their voice and perhaps the fire of ammunition may rise in protest against the decisions of demobilization and referral for retirement.

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Social peace may increase, and here they are, after the return of the armed movements to the country with broad dreams, with a reality that cannot dream and a climate conducive to tribal disputes, and the militias affiliated with the regime may raise their voice and perhaps the fire of ammunition may rise in protest against the demobilization and referral decisions for retirement
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Overdose:
Opportunities for economic reform will be one of the great challenges facing the transitional government of Sudan, as there is no political will to drink the bitter medicine of lifting subsidies on basic commodities. This subsidy consumes about 251 billion pounds, or about 40% of the size of the new budget. To bring the picture closer, the price of fuel in Sudan, which imports much of its needs from abroad, remains the lowest in the world, and Sudan comes directly after Venezuela, which is one of the oil producing and exporting countries. One US dollar can buy about ninety pieces of bread, although Sudan imports most of its wheat needs from abroad. The price of the national currency (the pound) has tumbled against the dollar, as the value of the pound has fallen by about 40% since April of last year.

Many economists believe that raising support or restructuring it exclusively for the poor is the short path to economic recovery, and yet the forces of freedom and change that led the revolution hesitated to allow their government to move forward in that direction, and they forced the government to retreat from its reform plans And this depends on holding a consultative conference next March. These conditions made the new Finance Minister brandish resignation in light of the lack of balance options between what the street demands of prosperity and what the economy needs in terms of packages.

Justice and institution building:
The new year holds the challenge of building transportation institutions. The Legislative Council is still in the womb of the unseen, awaiting the outcome of the peace negotiations in Juba. This absence provided more space for the movement of the generals who turned against the previous regime in the last hours of the people's revolution, where the sovereign council and the cabinet assume the task of legislation in the absence of the Legislative Council, which led to a slowdown in the political reform process that does not appeal to the generals of the military establishment and who tend to maintain and not exceed Old frameworks.

In this context, the government did not renew the mandate of the judges of the Constitutional Court, and none of the nine judges remains on the job, except the president of the court, whose contract expires next year. Transitional justice represents one of the sensitive files, and the new year marks a very important turning point, starting with the fate of the isolated president who was asked by some political forces to hand him over to the International Criminal Court to hold him accountable for the violations that occurred in Darfur during the war years there, an option that does not get enthusiasm from the Prime Minister The transitional - according to those close to it - as well as a large rejection of the military component of the Sovereign Council, which fears that the fire will reach the ends of its garments, given that the most prominent faces of this component formed a presence in the military scene in Darfur during the war years.

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Transitional justice is one of the sensitive files, and the new year marks a very important turning point. Starting with the fate of the isolated president, who some political forces demanded to hand him over to the International Criminal Court to hold him accountable for the violations that occurred in Darfur during the war years there.
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One of the most important challenges of the new year is the redress of the victims of the revolution, martyrs and wounded, despite the fact that the government formed a committee to carry out this complex task and ended the three-month deadline granted to this committee without doing anything other than requesting an extension. The challenge is evident in the sense that justice will not reach those who ordered the end of the sit-in of the General Command on the third of June 2019, who is suspected to be one of the influential military commanders in the matter, and that failure to stop the violence may include prominent members of the military council that was Take power then.

How to balance between satisfying the street and the families of the victims, and at the same time not dragging the country to a new confrontation, will be an exam in front of the government of Hamdok.

Confrontation with the generals .. When is the battle time?
Avoiding confrontation will move into the realm of dealing with the military component of the Sovereign Council. The constitutional document made the military component an integral part of the political equation, but there are points of engagement between the civil government and the military component. Generals view the armed forces, with all its spectrum, of army, security, and rapid support forces as an island free from the grip of civilians.

For example, a wali from the era of the Bashir government was appointed deputy director of the intelligence agency, the matter was not easily digestible to the civilian government, but it overlooked the matter and dealt with it as a reality, but there are other issues that will not go through the same ease in the new year, including the idea of ​​structuring the armed forces that he referred to Hamdouk in his speech to the people last December 25th, indicating his government's intention to build a new army with a new combat doctrine.

About a week later, on the last day of the previous year, the President of the Sovereign Council, General Abdel-Fattah Al-Burhan, was responding to the signal with a message that the armed forces would remain immune to penetration, preserving their unity. A decision on the future of the RSF is often delayed until later this year. But the sensitive file will be potentially explosive at any time.

Hamdock is waiting for peace to restore the balance of power in the army. He also believes that the end of the war in Yemen with a peaceful settlement will strip the quick support from the most important source of his strength represented by the financial support from the Saudi-Emirati alliance, at which time the file will become easy to handle.

What if the contract breaks?
Another challenge facing Sudan is the fragility of the ruling coalition, which is freedom and change. Some components of this alliance, such as the Communist Party, chose early to line up with the street and tweet outside the government swarm, and the combination of the advantage of being a partner in government while at the same time opposing the government has made other forces approach the communist model. The Sudanese Congress Party Chairman Omar Al-Dugair stated that the government of Hamdock is less than the stature of the revolution.

Along the same path, the Umma Party, whose leader Imam Al-Sadiq al-Mahdi, in a television interview, gave the government a score of only 40%, is not enough to pass the political exam in Sudan. Likewise, the refusal of the professionals and the Alliance for Freedom and Change to balance the new year can be read as an attempt to distinguish the political situation.

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And the talk about a military coup remains a sort of astrologer's lie in the world of politics, because the new transformations make it difficult for the task of making a traditional coup, at least with the current data in the Sudanese equation of very complicated
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Most of the political forces in the Freedom Alliance rejected a law that places restrictions on freedom of expression in order to protect the revolution, as stated in a statement submitted by a spokesman for the Council of Ministers, and this coincided with the closure of some media institutions with administrative decisions on suspicion that they represent facades of the previous regime .. Here the question jumps: Who Support Hamdok's government with all these conservative positions? The answer goes directly to the youth who made the revolution and sees in your heart the hope of the nation for change.

Bad scenario:
The biggest challenge is the question: What if the world fails Hamdok? As the budget for the new year suffers a deficit of more than three billion two hundred million dollars in the approach between export and import. This huge amount, the Minister of Finance expects the world to give charity to the government of the revolution, has set an example for us with the Ethiopian government receiving global aid that exceeds this number .. But what if the world slows down or imposes its conditions for harsh economic reform that the street cannot tolerate? The optimistic equation often changes if this bad scenario happens by dispersing the popular balance of the civil government.

No coup looming:
In most cases, the transitional government has more chances to cross the Sudan to safety, in exchange for limited risks that will not split the back of the nascent democracy, but it may open the way to political amendments that storm the Prime Minister or at the very least a wide change in the cabinet, as happened with the successor secret sealing government that It was formed in the aftermath of the October 1964 revolution, so party leaders would return to the rule of origin and arrangement for early elections beginning before the second half of the transitional period.

And the talk about a military coup remains a sort of astrologer's lie in the world of politics, because the new transformations make it difficult for the task of making a traditional coup, at least with the current data in the Sudanese equation of great complexity.