- More and more overflows emanate from the protest against the pension reform.
- This change in attitude can be explained both by a natural movement of the movement, but also by a legitimization of violence as a means of making things happen.
- Autonomous actions, deafness of the government, ineffective demonstrations, firmness of the unions, we take stock of this explosive mixture.
While the numbers of protesters and strikers against the pension reform are falling, the tension continues to mount. This Friday alone, the premises of the CFDT were invaded by activists, the restaurant "La Rotonde" was set on fire voluntarily and the exit to Emmanuel Macron's theater was disrupted by activists.
Increasingly violent and contested actions, as if the movement, after six weeks of mobilization, was at an impasse or a turning point. Have things really changed since December 5?
Strikes are no longer the solution
For Benjamin Morel, doctor of political science, the protest movement is starting to change. With a conflict that has gone to bog down, the strategy of an unlimited strike is no longer financially viable. The solution would then be to progressively move to a movement of symbolic actions, "requiring fewer people for the same reach on public opinion", such as the choreographies relayed massively on social networks, the blocking of the Louvre or the jet of objects of function near a ministry.
Another advantage of this strategy, he specifies, is the need for the unions “not to remain confined to the simple RATP / SNCF strike”, by involving other sectors in contesting the reform, sectors that cannot or cannot not necessarily wanting to strike.
Surfing with the limits of the legal
So much for the benefits and effectiveness of the new method, but Benjamin Morel then points out the major risk: "These actions push to get out of the nails a bit and to surf with the limits of legality, which can lead to overflows, well more than just demonstrations. "
This molt, which is quite classic in a protest movement, is not the only explanation for the current overflows. Difficult to see in the disruption of the theater on Friday or in the fire at "La Rotonde" an action ordered by the CGT or the UNSA. Beside the union protest coexists “a mode of action more“ yellow vests ”, emancipated from the unions. The disruption of the theater on Friday is aimed more at what Emmanuel Macron and its function embody than its reform in itself, ”details the doctor of political science.
The effectiveness of "yellow vests"
Eddy Fougier, political scientist and specialist in protest movements, analyzes "an increase in the temptation to violence and a proof of its effectiveness", due in particular to the movement of "yellow vests", whose outbursts were extremely relayed but having succeeded in obtaining government concessions where unions have failed for years.
For the political scientist, "filters jumped with the election of Emmanuel Macron. The end of the left / right divide, the fact that he is not attached to a historic political party, the lack of speech with the intermediary bodies make that social protests become more anger against the elites than against a bill in particular. The power is more deaf facing the street, which increases the tension. "
Set of defeats and firmness
And then, ten years of union defeats passed by, the last historic victory going back to the CPE. A shortage that makes doubt all the more settled on the relevance of dialogue and simple demonstration as explained by Benjamin Morel: "The unions have lost their ability to effectively embody social protest and their traditional methods of demonstrations have been discredited. "
These defeats of the unions also contributed to their determination in this battle, which is captive for their credibility. "The tone is less and less in dialogue, each side wanting to go to the end, hence a balance of power where no one seems ready to move," continues Eddy Fougier.
What outcome?
Add to that a government that does not back down after six weeks of mobilization and you get the explosive cocktail of violence seen more as a solution than the legal route, deemed ineffective. "The government is now in a dilemma, it cannot yield to the reform but if it does not yield facing the street, it weakens unions that can become partners in favor of spontaneous movements potentially focused on violence", prophesies Benjamin Morel.
All this assessment is not very optimistic for the future. Is a lull possible? For the doctor of political science, "the whole question is now to see if the unions will manage to take charge of the transformation of the protest in a movement of blows. If they fail, if they lose the pension battle, it is possible that we will see more self-determined and violent movements like “yellow vests” appear. "
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Journalist Taha Bouhafs in police custody after Emmanuel Macron's disturbed exit to the theater
- Violence
- Society
- Strike
- Pension reform
- Union