In Lebanon, the political crisis is exacerbating. Beginning October 17 and leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri, he balances between the forms of "peaceful protests without the killed" to "a complete loss of statehood."
Last weekend, the unrest was so serious and massive that the hearings scheduled by President Michel Aun on Monday, December 16, were postponed until Thursday, December 19.
Beirut did not sleep all weekend, because during the night the government forces made tough attempts to suppress the protest using rubber bullets, tear gas and water guns (the police and the army came to the aid of the government, but so far their actions have not had any effect), and the supporters of the Shiite party “ Amal ”staged a grand rally in Beirut.
Hundreds of people on motorcycles with party flags roared around the city, chanting: “Shiites!”, Throwing stones at the security forces, and in between races around the city attacking the tents of other protesters, not Shiite denominations. The number of wounded and injured ranges from several tens to hundreds, but so far there are no dead.
In the northern region of Akkar, the cities of Haribet al-Jindi and Jedidat al-Juma, protesters routed and set fire to several party offices of Saad Hariri and President Michel Aoun. By Thursday, the unrest does not subside, but, on the contrary, is on the rise, which may again postpone the issue of coordinating the figure of the Prime Minister.
Why do the Lebanese not want stability and approval of the new prime minister?
The answer is simple: because the new Prime Minister should again become Sunni Saad Hariri, who had just resigned from the same post. Who is he? The son of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who was killed in a terrorist attack on February 14, 2005. The Hariri clan has always ruled Lebanon since 1992, has the closest ties in the Middle East with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and controls all of the country's financial flows.
Billionaire Rafik Hariri began his career in politics with an ambitious, clever accountant who lived in Arabia, where he was noticed by Crown Prince Fahd, who made him the contractor of the royal court, and then blessed the ethnic Lebanese to return to Lebanon and enter big politics, where in 1992 he became the prime minister. His killing on the Beirut embankment as a result of a bomb was so resonant that the murder trial took place in The Hague, and after that the “cedar revolution” began in the country, putting an end to one political era and starting a new one.
Soon after Hariri’s death, his son Saad became Prime Minister because Hariri is a clan that suits everyone: the West, Arabia and Israel. By the time he resigned on October 29, 2019, this was his third resignation, and he always returned to the prime minister's chair.
The most shameful resignation of Saad Hariri, showing that Lebanon has not been a state for at least several years, but only what is commonly called a failed state, happened in November 2017. Hariri announced his resignation from Riyadh after meeting with bin Salman. He appealed to the citizens of his country in a televised address on the Saudi TV channel Al Arabiya, where, looking frightened, he expressed concern for his life, blaming Hezbollah and Iran for allegedly destabilizing the situation in Lebanon.
The fact that the Prime Minister was fleeing to Saudi Arabia, where he resigned through the Kingdom’s television channel, looked so shocking that it gave rise to rumors that the Saudis kept him under house arrest, and President Michelle Aoun himself stated that “Hariri, possibly kidnapped. " From Riyadh Hariri went to France, which intervened in the conflict, and under the demands of Washington, Saad Hariri returned to Lebanon in his chair.
The fear of being killed by Hezbollah, Lebanon's most serious political and military force, is obviously a reason for a new resignation. All these years, Hariri tactically arranged for Hezbollah, Iran’s main ally in Lebanon, since it was near Hariri that Lebanon and Hezbollah, powerfully represented in parliament, received billions of dollars and weapons from the West.
“They (Hezbollah. - Yu. Yu. ) Need Hariri to unlock the billions of loans we expect from abroad,” Sami Atallu, director of the Lebanese Center for Political Studies, quoted The Wall Street Journal as saying.
And it seems that the West is addressing these arguments specifically to Iran and Hezbollah: hey guys, we must resolve the Lebanese crisis, because you are in an economic grip - and you can get money only through “our” prime minister. “Mr. Hariri is a tycoon in the Sunni business, and he is widely recognized as the international partners of Lebanon, in particular the United States, France and Saudi Arabia,” repeats WSJ.
After Washington officially declared Hezbollah - following the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) - a terrorist organization, the economic situation of both the Iranian IRGC and Hezbollah has become really catastrophic. Therefore, it is possible that the Lebanese protests are part of the Iranian negotiation process on lifting stifling economic sanctions, and the return of Hariri will mean reaching some kind of general consensus. Like a tactical maneuver.
Because Iran can strategically remove the noose from its neck only by making Hezbollah a legal political force in Lebanon, bringing it to the government as a result of the victory of "people's democracy."
Only de jure legalization can make Hezbollah a real political player, capable of changing the political alignment in the Middle East.
But the 1943 National Pact blocks this possibility, it says: only Maronite can be president of Lebanon, only Sunni can be prime minister, and Shiite can only be chairman of the National Assembly (Lebanese parliament), no more. This unshakable rule has become even stronger after the long civil war in Lebanon from 1975-1990.
By the way, what does the protesting Lebanon continue to demand? After all, the prime minister has already resigned. Here is the fun part.
For the first time in history, protesters demand the abolition of the 1943 pact and the cessation of the division of the country into representatives of faiths.
All unrest passes under the slogans that Lebanon should become a single nation: “We are not Shiites, Sunnis or Christians. We are Lebanese. ”
One can hardly imagine that the Lebanese power elite will easily yield to these requirements, since religious and ethnic quotas allowed it to seamlessly share the Lebanese pie for 70 years. And does the West need a violation of this same status quo? With whom then to speak in Lebanon - with Hezbollah?
In the midst of the height of the protests from the political field, the Sunni heavyweights were cleared out, who could claim the post of prime minister and compete with Hariri. On October 23, Judge Gada Aun opened a lawsuit against former Prime Minister and millionaire Najib Mikati, a possible candidate considered untouchable. And in December, Lebanese businessman Samir Khatib, the likely successor to Hariri in case of his non-return, suddenly withdrew from the elections. He did this following a recommendation by Lebanese supreme Sunni authority Abdul Latif Derian that the only agreed candidate is Mr. Hariri.
After clearing out possible Sunni candidates for the post of prime minister in favor of Hariri, a paradoxical moment arose - on December 18, 2019, Hariri addressed: “I officially announce that I will not be a candidate for the formation of the next government.”
It can be understood: the country is approaching economic default, the country has a dollar deficit and all exchangers are closed, people stopped receiving salaries, many hospitals and hospitals closed, crowds throw stones at the police and army (there are more injured people from the law enforcement forces than among the population).
Moreover, he made this statement not from Riyadh, but from Beirut, where 14 years ago his father Rafik Hariri was blown up on the embankment. It is possible that Hezbollah made Hariri an offer that cannot be rejected - in the best rules of the movie The Godfather.
If Paris, Washington and Riyadh do not make Hariri a more convincing proposal, Lebanon will face a vacuum of power and, possibly, continued protests and the people’s revolution sweeping everything in its path, which will sweep away the 1943 National Pact and open the door to opportunities for a new Lebanese future.
However, if Hariri returns again, no one canceled the revolution. There are a lot of weapons and people in Lebanon who know how to handle it.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.