Directly from Paris, where the four-party summit was held in the Norman format, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov went to Washington to meet with his colleague Mike Pompeo and President Donald Trump. On the same day, December 10, 2019, Democratic leaders in the U.S. House of Representatives presented a draft indictment as part of the impeachment process of the owner of the White House.
Many journalists hastened to ask whether the coincidence of the two events was accidental. Perhaps Trump’s foes deliberately scheduled announcing impeachment articles on the date when high-level international consultations were to take place in Washington? Or, on the contrary, the current American administration has scheduled meetings with Lavrov on this day, wanting to divert public attention from what is happening in Congress?
In my opinion, the answers to these questions do not change anything. Hearings on impeachment did not begin yesterday and will continue for more than one month. From the very beginning of Ukrainagate it was clear that with a high degree of probability (I estimate it at 80–85%), the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives would vote for impeachment. Then the case will go to the Senate, where the majority belongs to the Republicans, who are determined to defend the president, so the chances of the Democratic Party to expel him from the White House are close to zero. The discussion in Congress did not go into the legal plane. She remained political. But this, of course, does not in the least reduce the intensity of the struggle. On the contrary, the ongoing cold civil war in the United States is waged every day with increasing bitterness.
Although the successes of Trump’s enemies in this war are, frankly, small, the current administration has to fend off the desperate attacks of political opponents and liberal media all the time. The word “impeachment” constantly flashes in the headlines of news notes and on television dies, creating the feeling that the “impossible Donald” is about to be defeated. Not all US citizens are “led” to this. Moreover, recent polls show that the current president has a much better chance of being re-elected for the next term than a couple of months ago. Nevertheless, Trump has not yet begun a decisive counterattack on his enemies.
So Sergey Viktorovich arrived at the besieged castle. And the fact that the leaders of the two great powers decided on this visit at such a moment speaks volumes.
First, Putin and Trump are very responsible for world security. Much more responsible than their critics. The same can be said of Lavrov and Pompeo. Secondly, the Kremlin and the White House have shown confidence in each other's reliability as negotiating partners (despite the complexity of these negotiations these days). Otherwise, the Russian side could postpone the previously planned visit. This could be explained by a variety of reasons (for example, a tight schedule of the Foreign Minister after the Paris summit).
The American side, however, could limit itself to a meeting of the heads of diplomatic missions, canceling the meeting at the White House, citing domestic political difficulties. Of course, that would be diplomatically incorrect (after all, Putin accepted Mike Pompeo in Moscow), but when Trump was worried about the protocol! He left the NATO summit a day earlier with no explanation at all. And this was an indication that he did not consider his partners in the alliance more equal.
They began to annoy him - “jumped” on the plane and flew away. He did not do this with the Russian leadership, and this caused an expected flurry of criticism in the press.
Finally, thirdly, both sides, apparently, believe that the processes taking place in the world are so important and fleeting that they require the attention of the great powers, no matter what the circumstances. Neither impeachment, nor differences of opinion on a number of global and regional problems.
It didn’t affect the schedule and content of Sergey Lavrov’s visit to Washington and the fact that his colleague could leave the post of Secretary of State in the near future. In any case, such leaks came to the press. I would treat them with a fair amount of skepticism, but today in Washington’s tense environment, far from everything can withstand, which explains a lot of staff turnover in the current administration. Some personnel changes have occurred recently. So, John Sullivan, who oversaw the negotiations between Russia and the United States on strategic stability through the State Department, was sent as ambassador to Moscow. And Kurt Walker and a number of his colleagues working in the Ukrainian direction left the department.
All this, as demonstrated by both main diplomats, is insignificant in comparison with the need to maintain high-level bilateral dialogue. And in this matter, in contrast to assessments of the situation in Venezuela, Syria and Ukraine, full agreement was demonstrated. Lavrov called unacceptable staging relations between Russia and the United States "on a pause." And Pompeo, answering the journalist’s next tricky question about the coincidence of the time of the Democratic demarche in Congress and his colleague’s visit to Washington, was very clear: attacks by political opponents could not “distract the president from meeting with the representative of the Russian side”.
This is a rather painful click on the nose for supporters of the impeachment of the 45th US president, as well as for opponents of Russian-American rapprochement. Having accepted the head of our Foreign Ministry at the White House, Trump quite clearly demonstrated that he thinks of impeachment and of “hawks” in Congress who would like to severely limit the powers of the head of state in international politics. Generally speaking, the essence of claims to Trump, of course, is not that he "blackmailed" Zelensky, tried to accuse Joe Biden of his affairs in Ukraine, or "betrayed the confidence of the people." The true reason for impeachment is the disagreement of the current US president with the Washington establishment.
On his Twitter, Donald Trump posted a photo with the head of the Russian diplomatic service in the Oval Office, accompanied by the note: “There has just been a very good meeting with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and representatives of Russia. Many issues were discussed, including trade, Iran, North Korea, the INF Treaty, nuclear arms control, and election interference. I look forward to continuing our dialogue in the near future! ”
Note: “interference in the election”, and not “Russian interference in the election”. The nuances in this matter are very important.
In turn, Sergey Lavrov also demonstrated his attitude to the domestic political struggle in the United States. When at a joint press conference with Mike Pompeo one of the journalists spoke about impeachment, Sergey Viktorovich smiled: they say, I understand that the number must be served. Then came the proposal to make public all records of contacts between the Kremlin and the Obama administration in the fall of 2016 on issues related to the suspicions of the American side regarding Moscow’s involvement in the hacking of the Democratic Party’s server. “Much would be clarified,” Lavrov hinted.
Mainstream American media did not hide their annoyance with the visit of the Russian Foreign Minister. In their opinion, it was almost a demonstration of Trump's support at the most critical moment for his presidency. An article was posted on CNN’s website, the author of which is indignant: “Even against the background of the impeachment procedure indirectly connected with Russia, Trump does not seem to be concerned about how he looks, maintaining close ties with Russia and its leaders.”
One could argue about the “tightness” of ties. Despite the fact that the owner of the White House from time to time openly and rather boldly demonstrates his independence in foreign policy issues, so far the relations between Russia and the United States are at an unacceptably low level. Nevertheless, as we learned from the joint press conference of Lavrov and Pompeo, bilateral work is ongoing. If you believe the replica dropped by the head of the State Department, intensive negotiations of experts on strategic stability have been going on for several months. It was their interim results that were mainly discussed by the leaders of the two diplomatic missions.
And here the main stumbling block is the issue of China's involvement in nuclear arms control agreements. Beijing, which today is not bound by any obligations in this area, is in no hurry to change the status quo and simply put its arsenals under international control. Why's that? Washington’s arguments are also understandable and quite logical. To date, the strategic potential of the Middle Kingdom is not known for certain. And no one knows what he will become tomorrow. But this is the second economy in the world with ever-growing military power.
But Moscow does not need to make a promise to convince Beijing to conclude a tripartite nuclear agreement. In any case, giving it just like that. Today, world politics has become extremely pragmatic, and in this regard, it makes sense to take an example from the PRC and the United States. For Moscow, this means not taking either the Chinese side or the United States. And keep your own interest.
Nevertheless, in the medium term, there is simply no alternative to a tripartite agreement in the field of strategic stability.
Until Moscow, Beijing and Washington agree on the foundations of a new architecture for world security, no other country will go for self-limitation in the nuclear field. And not only in the nuclear. It depends on Russia, the USA and China what the world will be like in the 21st century.
But in the short term, a lot (if not all) of it depends on the coherent foreign policy of the United States. More specifically, on whether Trump will be able to completely take her under control. Lavrov’s visit to the White House besieged from all sides is a rather generous gesture of support and a very clear hint that the ball is now on the side of the American leader.
Perhaps that is why right after the meeting with the head of our Foreign Ministry, Trump flew to an election rally in Pennsylvania, one of those states that will determine the outcome of the 2020 elections.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.