Why can't you defeat the administration?

The longest administration ever. There are many indications that one of the factors is “the weakness of the opposition party”.
“Why can't I defeat the Abe administration?”
To look from the opposition's perspective, we interviewed four people who were at the core of the Democratic Party administration. The executives at that time uttered words that were in different sounds.
(Political Department reporter Takuya Miyazato Kenfumi Okumi Koichi Namiki)

The factors behind the long-term administration

“What do you think are the factors behind the long-term administration?”
We challenged candid questions to “former executives” who were responsible for the Democratic Party administration.

Former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda.
Ichiro Ozawa who served as the secretary general of the ruling Democratic Party.
Seiji Maehara, who served as the Foreign Minister and Chairman of the Democratic Party Policy Research.
Mr. Yasumi Anzumi, who has served as a finance minister in the Democratic Party Administration and is currently the chairman of the National Assembly Committee for the Constitutional Democrat Party.
The four responded as follows:

“The biggest cause is that the opposition parties are falling apart and pulling each other.” (Noda)

“There is no saucer to replace the Abe administration. People want to change the administration but there is no choice.” (Ozawa)

"The failure of the Democratic Party administration is a factor. The consciousness that the Democratic Party administration was terrible has taken root." (Maehara)

“There is no strong rival within the Liberal Democratic Party, and the opposition party was unable to make a saucer.” (Azumi)

“Failure” of the Democratic Party Administration

All four said that the long-term government was “on their side” as well.
This view is supported by data. According to NHK's November poll, Abe's approval rating is 47%.

When asked why they support it, “it seems to be better than other cabinets” accounted for nearly 47% of the total. On the other hand, “because they have the ability to execute” and “because they are the cabinets of the political parties they support”, only 16% each.

The factor that gave birth to the Abe Long-term Administration is the Democratic Party.
What does Maehara's word “failure of the Democratic Party” mean?
Let's rewind time.

August 2009.
The Democratic Party gained 308 seats, the highest number in the House of Representatives election after the war, overwhelming the Liberal Democratic Party and realizing a change of government.

Immediately after the Hatoyama administration was established, the approval rate of the cabinet was 72%, which was a departure from the public due to expectations.

However, the Democratic Party administration will come to an end three years and three months later.

The first stumbling block of the Democratic Party administration is “stray” over the issue of relocating the US Army Futenma base in Okinawa.
At that time Prime Minister Hatoyama insisted that “at least outside the prefecture”. People's expectations have risen, especially in Okinawa.
However, while saying that there is a plan, he abandoned the move outside the prefecture without any concrete progress.

Hatoyama quickly lost his centripetal force and was forced to resign in nine months.
The cabinet approval rate at the end of the administration fell to 21%.

In June 2010, Naoto Kan received the Prime Minister's baton.
Immediately after the Sakai Cabinet was established, the approval rate was 61%. It looked as if it had picked up.

However, Prime Minister Kan mentioned the increase in the consumption tax rate to 10% immediately after taking office.
Due to these remarks, the Democratic Party was defeated in the summer Upper House election.
The Diet became a so-called “twisted” state where the majority of the Houses of Parliament differed.

In March 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred.
Critics also appeared on Prime Minister Kan's initial response to the nuclear accident.
In the end, the Prime Minister resigned for two years.

Collective party that became a fatal wound

July 2012.
An event occurred that stabbed the Democratic Party administration.
It is a collective party of Ichiro Ozawa, who also served as secretary general in the Hatoyama administration.

50 parliamentarians rushed out of the party against the consumption tax hike.

Ozawa looks back.
“There was nothing wrong with having finally left the party against the consumption tax hike that broke promises with the public.

“However, I think that the Noda administration itself had some elements that could be managed in various discussions. Mr. Maehara (Chairman of Policy Research) was the chairperson, but it was discontinued before the opinions were settled. That ’s why it ’s a party decision. ”

Prime Minister Noda at that time.

“With the riots of the party, the image of“ The Democratic Party administration has fallen apart ”remained intensely. I met with Dr. Ozawa twice and thought that I would somehow persuade and understand. It was no good.

Maehara, who was named by Ozawa as “disclosed the discussion”.
He regrets that the government has been destroyed by the “inner ring rice cake”.

"" Anti-Ozawa "and" Oya Ozawa "split into two. Normally, if you hold power, you don't fight until you break the foundation of power. Just fight until you break the foundation of power. I was really foolish when I thought about it now. "

Lack of “attachment”

The LDP regained power in the Lower House election in December 2012.
Since then, the administration of Prime Minister Abe has continued for nearly seven years.
What is the difference between the Democratic Party administration and the Abe administration?
The same words came out from the executives' mouths.

“I think we continued to maintain the administration, in a sense, greed for the administration, and lack of“ attachment ”to power” (Maehara)

“The Democratic Party lacked the“ attachment ”to maintain the government. In that respect, the Liberal Democratic Party did very much, and the desire to maintain the administration has permeated each member of the Diet. (Azumi)

Ozawa, who was once the youngest and the LDP secretary general.

“Like the Prime Minister Abe, the Liberal Democratic Party has a very strong“ attachment ”to power. The constitution of the Liberal Democratic Party is that it is gathered together for power, and the current ruling and opposition parties have differences like adults and children. That kind of warmth and strength is necessary. ''

“Attachment”.
If the Liberal Democratic Party has strengthened because of the experience of the opposition party, this word may be a key to understand the long-term administration.

Election

Is it just an abstract mind theory of “attachment”?
Azumi points out the skillfulness of Prime Minister Abe's election tactics.

“Before the opposition party is ready, it will be disbanded in the place of“ I will not dissolve yet. ”The opposition party was surprised in 2014 and 2017. The opposition party that had to be on the permanent battlefield I was neglected to prepare.This gap led to a long-term administration, and the foundation of the Abe administration became stronger. "

On the other hand, after I went down, it wasn't without chance.
September 2017.
Governor Koike, who won a big victory in the Tokyo Metropolitan elections in summer, launched a "Party of Hope" before the House of Representatives election.

Following the momentum of the Tokyo governor's election, the public's expectations increased rapidly.
Maehara, who was the representative of the Democratic Party of the first opposition party, contacted Koike and decided to join in fact.

“The dissolution of the House of Representatives has become the default route around September 10th, and I and Koike started to contact them around September 17. The Liberal Democratic Party was also very angry,“ The Liberal Democratic Party divided 240 seats. Then, Prime Minister Abe has resigned. ”I think that the Liberal Democratic Party had a considerable sense of crisis.” (Maehara)

However, over adjustment of candidates, Koike said, “It is the minimum necessary to agree on security and the constitutional view.

The rebellious Yukio Edano formed the Constitutional Democratic Party, and the Democratic Party invited a division.

The tailwind turned into a headwind in an instant.

How do you accept this reality? I asked Maehara.

“We must take responsibility for all the consequences, but we have no regrets or nothing about the decision to join the party of hope. I still think it was good. ''

Ozawa, who once had a political action with Koike.

“If Koike-kun had a little more greed and ambition, I won. I was able to win the administration and became Prime Minister Koike. But she had a sense of taking a moderate seat and working with the LDP. Was n’t it? ”

The former Democratic Party is still divided into the Constitutional Democratic Party and the National Democratic Party.
The situation that the opposition party is called “weak” continues.

"The Abe administration is not doing anything"

While he speaks of reflection on the administration of his administration, the evaluation of the former Abe administration is severe.

Former Prime Minister Noda.
Just before the dissolution of the House of Representatives in 2012, a so-called “three-party agreement” was signed with the then Liberal Democratic Party / Tanigaki Governor and Komeito / Yamaguchi. According to the agreement, the consumption tax rate will be raised to 10% step by step, while the child-rearing support measures will be enhanced, and the pension system and medical care for the elderly will be studied.

Noda says that the agreement has been relieved.
“The vision of social security has become ambiguous. In addition, the consumption tax that must be carefully nurtured is greatly increased from the philosophy of“ simpleness and fairness ”in what the tax system should be by introducing reduced tax rates and point reductions. It ’s a very distant form, sinful ”(Noda)

Noda's words continue.
“I did not say that the long-term administration had produced any results.“ Long and no respect ”. The Sato administration returned to Okinawa, the Nakasone administration was privatized by the National Railways, and the Koizumi administration was privatized by the postal administration. Mr. Abe changed the slogan such as “Regional Revitalization” and “100 Million Total Activity”, but in the end, nothing was done.

Ozawa points out the harmful effects of the long-term administration.

“Similar to the problem of Kakuen Gakuen,“ The Cherry Blossom Viewing Party ”is openly organized to invite many supporters from their own constituencies and entertain them at the national expense. Abuse, that's happening one after another. ''

From another point of view, it is Azumi who will alert the current political situation.

“Introducing a private exam to the university entrance exam is the best example, but the official residence decides to go without going through the LDP. It cannot be the old LDP. We are also said to be“ weak ”, but in fact, The Liberal Democratic Party is also weak, and there is a “strong” problem where political parties do not pick up the voices of the people properly and both the ruling and opposition parties are weakening.

Opposition party started to move

The opposition parties are also moving toward the breakthrough of the political situation, also called “Abe Kazuchi”.
From the extraordinary parliament in autumn, the Constitutional Democratic Party and the National Democratic Party joined the parliament in the House of Representatives.
Since the Democratic Party lost power, it has become the largest number of opposition parties.

One Abe administration.
In October, the first cabinet ministers resigned one after another in just over a month after the cabinet reshuffle.
It was also revealed that Prime Minister Abe invited many people from the sponsorship party to the “Cherry Blossom Viewing Party”.
It seems that the opposition has become more offensive since the congregation.

What do you think the Democratic leaders should do about this situation now?

“My own responsibility is to create a political situation that can be changed once again. I can only fulfill that responsibility.” (Noda)

Furthermore, about the next stage.

“It was only the beginning that we had the denomination together. If we joined the denomination and did the election separately in another party, we wouldn't be challenged by the public. We can already see the goal. )

“In this situation, the situation will continue to be unfortunate for the nation and the citizens. We want to make sure that the opposition parties meet together this year. If the opposition parties gather together to create a saucer, we will surely win the government in the next election. Is convinced ”(Ozawa)

The aim is to bring together former Democratic powers such as the Constitutional Democratic Party and the National Democratic Party.
It's a confluence of political parties.

On the other hand, Maehara points out that in favor of reunion, it is not enough.

"The key man is Mr. Edano. To what extent he will tolerate the opposition party. Whatever Mr. Ozawa says, what Mr. Yasuzumi says, how will the top of the opposition party first party judge?"

Towards a reversal offensive

Representative Edano of the first opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party.
At a monthly press conference, he asked about strategies for taking the administration.

“It's impossible to talk about how to overthrow the government in public. It ’s like playing poker with your hand open.”
Edano is wrapped in smoke.

However, there is no doubt that the opposition party is seeking to join the party for a reversal offensive.
Here is one paradox that must be overcome.

If the failure of the Democratic Party administration gave birth to the Abe long-term administration, the party was divided.
“If opposition forces reunite, they may not just return to the original Democratic Party again.”
How do you face these indications?

Of the four "former executives", only one asked this question to Azumi, who is at the forefront of the political bureau as the executive of the Constitutional Democratic Party.

“Don't be afraid, criticism like that. Labeled, but don't shrunk. I failed and frustrated. It ’s better to say, it ’s not like it ’s atrophy. The opposition party is solid, and it ’s the power to use it again. ”

I want to move on without fear.
The words felt a strong determination to inspire you and prepare your friends.

How long will the Abe administration last? Who is Post Abe?
The opposition party will come to a critical moment.

(Honorifics omitted in the text)

Takuya Miyazato, reporter of the political department
Joined in 2006. From Saitama Bureau to the political department. Interviewed with the Democratic Party and experienced the reporter of Mr. Ichiro Ozawa. After working again at the Saitama Bureau, he is now in charge of the National Democratic Party in the political department.

Koji Okumi, reporter of the political department
Joined in 2011. After working at the Kanazawa and Akita Bureaus, the political department. Covered the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, etc. Currently, in addition to the Constitutional Democratic Party, he is in charge of non-affiliated members such as former Prime Minister Noda.

Koichi Namiki, reporter of the political department
Joined in 2011. Political department from Yamaguchi Bureau. After working for the Ministry of Education, etc., in charge of the Constitutional Democratic Party in the opposition club from the summer of 1919. Served as the reporter of the chairman of the Azumi Diet Committee.