While I was walking around Tbilisi on my birthday, the city was quiet and beautiful. Just a few days later, thousands of people went to the Georgian parliament and the words “dispersal of the rally”, “tear gas” and “water cannons” appeared in the headlines.
Of course, I do not want Tbilisi to turn into Hong Kong or Paris of the era of "yellow vests". Therefore, I decided to independently deal with the reasons for the recent protests and, on condition of anonymity, I spoke to several people of very polar points of view at once.
All my interlocutors agree on one thing: any protest, regardless of his reason, involves associates of Mikhail Saakashvili, nationalists and marginal politicians who have no chance of returning to power. The people of Georgia remember very well the old election promises and do not tolerate deception. Meanwhile, deception has become the cause of the latest clashes between people and the police and a new round of political crisis in this country.
One of the most important requirements in the summer protests was a change in the electoral system of Georgia with the abolition of elections in majoritarian districts. Of the 150 seats in the Georgian parliament, more than half (77 seats) are MPs on party lists, and 73 seats remain for people nominated from specific territories. Not a single party in Georgia has such a resource as to win the votes of the whole country and form a majority without majorities. They are the main tool for forming a party in power, which the Georgian Dream promised to abandon (by shooting itself in the foot).
On November 14, the vote on the reform was failed by just such deputies nominated from different regions of Georgia. They said that in conditions of weak regional power there would be no one to defend the interests of specific people. All this is good, but the word was given, no one believes in the majority majority’s independence from Ivanishvili, so people found themselves circled around their fingers. All that remained was to warm up the people and take them out into the street, including to the joy of the Outcast, who was sitting out in Ukraine. I have no doubt that a speech for reading from the armored car has already been prepared, but the Georgians are clearly not up to the wet dreams of the former president.
The rally, as you know, was dispersed. The problem remains, and confidence in the “Georgian Dream” is inevitably undermined. This is where the fun begins.
According to one version, Bidzina Ivanishvili wants to hold power in his hands for the third political cadence in a row. This has not happened in the history of Georgia. I would not say that this is some kind of exceptional democracy of the people: simply under no authority, whether Gamsakhurdia, Shevardnadze, Saakashvili or Ivanishvili, there has been no obvious qualitative leap for the better in the life of Georgians.
A third-term strategy can be implemented if a third force, also controlled by Ivanishvili, is created. How can one not recall that within the “Georgian Dream” a faction of deputies has already formed that is offended by the failure of voting on the electoral system. Four people from this group refused high posts in parliament. Yes, now they say that they do not have money for the party, but agents of influence on these people will definitely find money.
As a result, a situation has developed in Georgia in which the “Georgian Dream” is losing points and seats in parliament right now, and even more so after the next election. No one believes in Saakashvili and his supporters for a long time, much less for free. So it turns out that there is no real political force in Georgia right now.
Let’s see if Bidzina Ivanishvili can put together a puzzle in his favor with these initial ones. It is believed that the plan has long been ready and everything that happens - from the promise of change to the failure of the vote and the dispersal of the protest - is a phased implementation of a calculated political strategy. According to the plan, parliamentary elections should be held in the fall of 2020. But even the most skillful strategist should not forget about the element of surprise and even more so own the art of taking an opponent by surprise on his own.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.