The last obstacle to the construction of Nord Stream 2 has been removed. The Danish government has issued permission to lay a section of the gas pipeline south of the island of Bornholm. The prospect of putting the pipe into operation with a slight delay took on a visible shape. Actually, Copenhagen had no other choice. After the Danish government delayed the consideration of the application for laying the route in the territorial waters of the country, Nord Stream 2 applied for permission to build a branch in the exclusive economic zone.
It is significantly further from the coastline. According to the Convention on the Law of the Sea, such an application cannot be rejected without sufficient justification. But here, under US pressure, Denmark was in no hurry, although compensation must be paid for every day of delay.
After it became clear at the beginning of the week that the European Commission was unable to push a long-term contract that was beneficial for Ukraine at the negotiations between Gazprom and Naftogaz in Brussels, it was senseless, expensive, and it threatened to ruin relations with other European countries. countries. We are talking about the energy security of Europe, that the Europeans, God forbid, do not freeze this winter. When it comes to this area, Europe is going wild and there is not the slightest trace of its delicacy.
The situation of Naftogaz after the Copenhagen approval of the gas pipeline route has catastrophically worsened. Vladimir Zelensky was not able to hide his frustrations and commented on the situation in the best traditions of the discussion of the construction of the Nord Stream-2 Americans: “I will tell you frankly: it strengthens Russia and weakens Europe.” The Ukrainian president is well aware that now, from under the stick, Kiev will have to go to the conditions put forward by Gazprom to conclude a new contract for the transit of fuel to Europe through the Ukrainian GTS.
There are three of these conditions. They were listed by the head of the Russian gas concern Aleksey Miller: mutual litigation between the two companies should be stopped, Naftogaz should complete the transition to European standards in the calculations, for which it is necessary to separate the gas transportation system into a separate structure and determine the specific supply volumes. Gazprom has long been working according to European standards, and their introduction into Ukrainian legislation will put an end to Kiev’s attempts to push up transit prices to absurd values. Ukraine will have to proceed from the cost of such services in European markets. And they are two to three times smaller than what she tried to claim from Russia.
In addition, attempts to insist on a ten-year contract under the threat of a new lawsuit worth more than $ 11 billion also failed.
The management of Naftogaz is well aware that after the commissioning of Nord Stream-2 and Turkish Stream, the value of the Ukrainian GTS for Russia will drop to almost zero.
And then you have to drive gas at dumping prices that will not even pay for the operation of the pipeline. That is why Kiev rejected the offer of Gazprom to conclude a temporary annual agreement in which all the price parameters of the contract, which expires on January 1, 2020, would be preserved.
The approach of the X hour forces Europe, which previously simply monitored Naftogaz’s hysterical attempts to blackmail Gazprom with threats of new lawsuits in both the Stockholm arbitration and its own courts, to act extremely harshly. Her comfort will be preserved at all costs, whatever the cost to Kiev. Therefore, the last part of the Marlezon Ballet promises to be completely predictable: judicial claims will be nullified, Ukraine, not in a hurry with the transition to European standards, will rapidly implement them in its own legislation and, of course, will provide the required information about the volumes of gas that it intends to transit and use for own needs.
But now she will have to beg Russia to keep on her knees to maintain some decent volumes of transit, because otherwise the GTS itself, which would generate about $ 3 billion in profit per year, will turn into a subsidized structure, which Kiev has no means to support and modernize. The situation has improved, becoming the way it should be in principle. Previously, the buyer tried to blackmail the seller, but now the seller intelligently sets civilized conditions and expects them to be met. After Kiev tried to speak from a position of strength, he had to capitulate in disgrace, losing the imaginary advantages, of which he was sure until the very last moment.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.