In a deadlock, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned on Tuesday (October 29th), provoking scenes of jubilation across the country, agitated since October 17 by an unprecedented popular revolt against his country. political class, accused of letting the country sink.

Saad Hariri said he wanted to respond "to the will of many Lebanese who took to the streets to demand change" and called "all Lebanese (...) to protect civil peace."

The resignation of Prime Minister, handed over to President Michel Aoun, opens an era of uncertainty as political negotiations take time in Lebanon: the choice of the government that has just resigned had required eight months of discussions between the innumerable components of political life and confessional Lebanese; the appointment of President Aoun, two and a half years.

France 24 looked at possible short-term scenarios for the government.

• Saad Hariri again in charge of forming a government

Constitutionally, President Michel Aoun is obliged to accept the resignation of his Prime Minister. However, he can again appoint Saad Hariri as head of government.

Such a choice would make the negotiations for the formation of the future cabinet difficult, especially as they will take place under the close supervision of a protest movement still in full swing. Protesters, weary of politics, demand the institution of a government of technocrats to restore the economy of the country, in decay. Almost thirty years after the end of the civil war, the population still suffers from chronic shortages of water and electricity and more than a quarter of the Lebanese live below the poverty line while the country is classified as one of the most corrupt in the world. world (138th out of 180 countries, according to the NGO Transparency International).

Lebanese protesters demand technocrats' government

"All means all," chanted the crowd after the resignation of Saad Hariri. However, the latter could come back with a completely renewed government team, made up mostly of technocrats recognized for their competence. "Hariri overthrows the table to better negotiate his return," has also titled the French daily L'Orient-Le Jour.

The return of the resigning prime minister would have the advantage of satisfying Paris and Washington, the two major influential western capitals in Lebanon. France said Hariri's resignation made "the crisis even worse" and Washington called for the creation of a new government "urgently". They were worried about the resignation, which could allow the Shiite party Hezbollah - the only armed party in the country - to further increase its influence. The 8 March Alliance - composed mainly of the Shiite party and the Free Patriotic Movement (the party of President Aoun, a Maronite Christian) - was opposed to the collective resignation of the government.

• Another Prime Minister is appointed and Hezbollah comes out reinforced

President Michel Aoun and his allies in the 8 March Alliance could try to impose their own prime minister. Under the Lebanese Constitution, it must necessarily come from the Sunni minority. Saad Hariri is one of the few prominent politicians in this community.

"In case of appointment of another Prime Minister, the president will have to pay attention that he answers to the demands of the street", explains Zeina Antonios, correspondent of France 24 in Lebanon.

Another scenario would be the confrontation with the popular uprising: a Sunni personality aligned with the 8-March camp would be responsible for forming the government, which could lead to a repression of the peaceful movement. Hezbollah has given a taste of the steps it could take with a violent attack Tuesday afternoon in Beirut against one of the main gathering places, says L'Orient-Le Jour.

>> To read also: "The demonstrations in Lebanon are 'a moment of truth for Hezbollah'"

"Hezbollah says it supports the population, it sends its militants to demonstrate and guide the slogans, but Hezbollah is embarrassed, it wants to be on the side of the people but the people put it in the same bag as the others", explains Fabrice Balanche, doctor in geography at Lyon II University.

• Negotiations and the interim drag on

The last scenario would be that of the status quo, namely that no new government is formed and that Saad Hariri is acting with limited powers.

For it is for the moment one of the few certainties: "The president Aoun indicated that Saad Hariri continues in an interim government", announces Zeina Antonios, correspondent of France 24 in Lebanon.

"For the protesters, the departure of the government is only the first step"

A situation that will only aggravate the crisis without bringing protesters out of the street. For, after the resignation of Saad Hariri, the demonstrators remained faithful to the slogans that have prevailed since the beginning of the movement: "Revolution, revolution!," All, that means all "and" The people want the fall of the regime ".

"We started with Hariri and we will continue with Aoun and (Nabih) Berri," the head of Parliament, even promised a protester at the microphone of a local radio.

• Get out of political confessionalism ?

Protesters, who have raised the bar by demanding a change in the denominational system, currently based on a division of power between communities, will not see their wishes fulfilled at this stage.

"The popular revolt transcends communities and regions, and the political class as a whole has not understood, did not see this sling coming in. And it is disarmed, it does not know what to do," explains Antoine Basbous, political scientist and director of the Observatory of Arab Countries, to our colleagues at RFI.

"The Constitution considers political confessionalism as provisional", says May Maalouf Monneau, lecturer at the Lebanese University of Beirut, on the antenna of France 24. "Everyone considers that we must get out of this system but no one does not agree on how [...] And the political class takes its time. "