The UK received another deferral of Brexit - now it is obliged to come out not on October 31, but on January 31. However, this is not a reason for optimism for the country - after all, the British leaders had three more months to demonstrate their own incompetence and political infantilism. And the population is forced to watch this shameful sitcom for another three months - unless, of course, in December the British will be given a chance to interrupt this show.
Back in mid-October, it was clear that by the end of the month Britain would not be able to leave the EU in a civilized manner. The British parliamentarians refused to follow the example of their Ukrainian counterparts and in the “turbo regime” adopt the laws necessary for the authorities - in particular, to vote for the Brexit deal agreed upon by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European leaders. At the same time, the deputies passed a law according to which the prime minister does not have the right to declare a “hard” brexit (that is, exit without a deal) and is obliged to turn to the EU for a postponement. Johnson promised voters that the country would definitely leave the European Union after October 31 - however, he did not dare to circumvent the will of parliament and turned to the head of the European Council Donald Tusk for a postponement. On October 19, Tusk received his request and said they would think.
We thought for a long time. Yes, everyone immediately agreed that a “hard” brexit, fraught with a break in economic ties and multibillion-dollar losses, is not needed for Europe - especially now, when there is an agreed draft deal. The question was what kind of deferment to give.
France insisted on a short term - so that the British deputies did not relax and quickly carried out an agreed deal on Brexit through a thorny parliamentary procedure. Germany also did not want to give a very long respite - so that no one would have the impression that the EU wants to leave the United Kingdom as part of the United Europe against the will of British citizens. In addition, a very long delay will give the British opposition hope for a new Brexit referendum (the British estimate that its preparation will require a minimum of 22 weeks, and the consent of the majority of the deputies of the House of Commons and the House of Lords will also be necessary). However, the enthusiasm of Paris for the very very short time in Berlin (as in other capitals) was not shared. After all, the British Parliament physically may not have time to vote for the deal - which means that it will be necessary to give another postponement.
As a result, Macron was persuaded, and on October 28, Donald Tusk confirmed that the EU member states agreed in principle to extend the Brexit deadline for another three months - until January 31, 2020. Naturally, provided that the UK continues to make contributions to the EU budget for all these three months.
The British authorities decided, however, that they want to use this term not only to push through the Brexit agreement. The opposition was preparing to fight on a number of points of the document - so Johnson decided to strike at the opposition itself. Reformat “non-working parliament” through early elections.
Voting on this issue took place on October 28 - and failed. For the decision on the bill proposed by him, two-thirds of the deputies of the parliament were needed, and the Labor Party said that they would not vote for early elections until the issue of “hard” brexit was on the agenda. They are well aware that if Johnson and the part of the Conservative Party rallied around him win early elections in December, the prime minister will have every reason to refuse the parliament’s demand to avoid “hard” brexit and leave the EU on January 31 without any agreement.
However, Johnson did not give up and intends to take a new approach to the ballot and to vote on early elections through another procedure, requiring only a simple majority of votes.
And if the parties do not get bogged down in discussing amendments, clarifying personal relations or if they don’t clash their heads on trifles, then the decision may well pass, and in December the British will be able to express their will at the polling station.
Sociologists, however, warn that the results of this expression may be unpredictable - some even believe that they will be the most unpredictable in the entire modern history of the United Kingdom. It is not surprising - British society is already quite tired of this not Shakespearean and, strictly speaking, not a ridiculous comedy of mistakes that lasts more than three years.
The problem is that the comedy will continue even after January 31 and with each month will increasingly look like a tragedy or even a thriller. The endorsement of the Brexit deal and the civilized, pompous exit from the EU is just the beginning of a very long and thorny path that the UK must travel along the road from the European Union.
After the official release, London and Brussels will have to agree on new terms of trade, financial, economic and other relations for many months. Moreover, it is possible that London will no longer speak on behalf of the whole of Great Britain - Scotland does not want to leave the European Union and is likely to insist on a new referendum on independence. In addition, the UK (or rather, what remains of it) will also need to coordinate a trade deal with the United States.
Yes, Trump has repeatedly said that he sympathizes with Boris Johnson, and also promised London a “phenomenal trade agreement” after Britain left the EU and urged him to withdraw as soon as possible in order to receive American gifts. However, knowing Trump, it is easy to guess that when Britain is left alone and begins negotiations with the US on a trade agreement, Washington will simply twist London's hands. As a result, Britain’s campaign from Europe for independence could end in a small (in every sense) of England in vassal dependence on the United States.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.