The skyline clears over Hodeida, a strategic port city for humanitarian aid to Yemen. The UN envoy to the country, Martin Griffith, on Wednesday (October 23rd) hailed "the creation of four joint surveillance posts" for loyalist forces and Houthi rebels, as well as "the deployment of liaison officers along the front lines ".
"These joint checkpoints represent the realization of the long and arduous negotiation process initiated by the 13 December 2018 Stockholm Agreement between the belligerents, an agreement which included, in addition to a ceasefire, of redeployment of the parties involved, "says David Rigoulet-Roze, teacher and researcher at the French Institute of Strategic Analysis (IFAS) and editor-in-chief of Orients Stratégiques magazine (L'Harmattan), contacted by France 24.
"The worst humanitarian crisis in the world"
Hodeida, in the hands of the Houthis since the beginning of the conflict in Yemen in July 2014, was initially cease-fire in late 2018, before the rebels withdrew in May, and two other ports - Salef and Rass Issa - in accordance with the first phase of the Stockholm Process.
"These three ports are essential from a humanitarian point of view," says the IFAS researcher. "And it turns out that Hodeida is the big port on the Red Sea, which is the gateway to some 70% of food imports and 90% of medicines for people who are sorely lacking because of the war."
The fact that the situation is stabilizing in this port city is timely in a country with "the worst humanitarian crisis in the world," as the UN regularly refers to it. Moreover, this conflict has in five years tens of thousands of deaths, 3.3 million displaced people. Finally, 24.1 million Yemenis - out of a total population of 28 million people - need humanitarian assistance, when several million of them are threatened by famine.
The idea of de-escalation, between "positive sign" and "forced choice"
The establishment of common checkpoints with loyalist forces and Houthi rebels in Hodeïda may appear as "the rather positive sign of a move towards de-escalation for the benefit of the Yemeni civilian population," according to David Rigoulet-Roze. "This means that the belligerents are talking to one another in the good offices of the UNAIDS Redeployment Coordinating Committee - headed by Danish General Michael Lollesgaard - the UN mission whose mandate has been renewed for six months. last July, until January 15, 2020. So we are less in a warmongering position even if the trust between the parties remains quite relative - there is always a mistrust if not a form of distrust on both sides. "
But the prospect of an end to the conflict that has been going on for more than five years in Yemen does not seem to be on the agenda yet. "The war launched since the end of March 2015 by the Arab-Sunni coalition led by Saudi Arabia constitutes a proven strategic impasse, and all concerned actors are looking for a way out of this impasse," the IFAS researcher said. "Everyone would like to stop costs - in every sense of the word - but no one has yet found the right solution to achieve this as it also aims to save the appearance of each stakeholder."
The Houthis, however, said they were ready a month ago, September 20, to make peace with Saudi Arabia by "stopping all attacks against (the kingdom)". The proposal came just days after the attack on two strategic oil sites in Saudi Arabia, which Yemeni rebels assumed responsibility for.
"The precise drone strikes on the oil infrastructure of Abqaiq and Khurais on September 14th were revealing the intrinsic vulnerability of Saudi Arabia, and this made many people think," said David Rigoulet-Roze. The Houthis, who attributed the responsibility to them with serious doubts, "took the opportunity to position themselves as peace promoters, even allowing themselves to offer a cease-fire offer in Riyadh," he said. the researcher, "and on the side of Saudi Arabia there is an awareness (which has accelerated after this attack, Ed) that it will not be possible to continue this war years in Yemen. The idea of de-escalation would finally be almost a constrained choice. "