The next round of the Middle East confrontation in Syria - of course, I am referring to the Turkish operation against the Kurds and all the geopolitical and other insinuations that accompany it - is an excellent occasion to think about how Russian participation in this eight-year-long conflict began. Moreover, let me remind you, four out of eight years, Russia is a key player in this chess game, which has been repeatedly proved by real military victories and specific political achievements.
By military victories, I mean the liberation of the colossal Syrian territories from terrorists from ISIS and other radical armed groups. By political achievements, I mean a certain consolidation of Syrian society, including moderate opposition, around legitimate (not only from the point of view of Syrian, but also international law) state structures. However, I am convinced that the first would be simply impossible without the second.
So, we sent our VKS and other military units to Syria to fight religious fanatics who dreamed of creating an alternative to the civilized world "state", called by them "caliphate". One must be objective: the idea of the radicals turned out to be contagious and popular among a certain Middle Eastern class - if there wasn’t such support, the terrorists would hardly have been able to hold out for so long. Despite the fact that an international coalition led by the United States, which also fought (or pretended to be fighting) against ISIS, has repeatedly stated the complete defeat of terrorists in Syria and Iraq (the Russian military has always been more accurate in its assessments), hotbeds of tension in some regions both countries remain to this day.
However, now - if we are talking about the Middle East - clashes with supporters of the "caliphate" can be safely called local. We are no longer talking about a big war. The Turkish military campaign, of course, is of great geopolitical importance for the region, for the fate of the Kurdish issue in the first place, but it can hardly affect the future of ISIS. The topic of religious radicals is considered absolutely indirectly in the current Syrian context, although curious facts that are worth paying attention to, nevertheless come up and allow us to draw certain conclusions about the prospects of the so-called caliphate.
In particular, the Major and General Television channel, authoritative in the military sphere, reported that, retreating from the north of Syria (just in connection with the start of the Turkish campaign), the US military removed all Uigurs from the Kurdish prisons. My sources in the intelligence structures of the General Staff confirm the information. It would seem that in this such, well, Uyghurs and Uyghurs - the detail is not particularly noticeable. The ethnic diversity of the “caliphate” has long been known. However, in my opinion, it is precisely the Uighurs in the foreseeable future that could become the main destabilizing factor in Central Asia, where, as you know, ISIS was able to transfer at least part of its formations.
Of course, first of all, Afghanistan is meant. But in my understanding, this is only a springboard for further expansion. The regions in which ISIS launched its activities are mainly bordering China, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.
In the case of China, we are talking about the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, where the vast majority of the population are Uyghurs who are not ethnic Chinese and profess Sunni Islam, who are also covered by permanent separatist sentiments - historically this is the most suitable target audience of ISIS. In addition, the Uyghurs inhabit significant territories of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. It turns out just a thermonuclear ethnic tangle, the energy and contradictions of which can be effectively used for radical purposes.
In the case of Central Asia, I would apply the following metaphor. If a couple of years ago we observed in Syria the sunset of the so-called caliphate, then it was expected to fall in his night, then in Afghanistan the dawn of the "caliphate" is approaching. There are serious reasons to believe (and the Russian special services have such data) that the next blow from religious radicals should be expected from there. And for Russia, which has historically much in common with Central Asia (today it is not only the economy, but also migrants), this will be a serious challenge one way or another.
One cannot speak of a complete victory over ISIS because the terrorist ideology has dynamically developing organizations not only on the Eurasian continent, but also, for example, in Africa, the Philippines, and Indonesia. In recent years, they have been actively “wilting” (the administrative unit in ISIS, meaning is close to a branch) in Egypt, terrorist attacks on security forces and other African states have become more frequent. The Pacific and Indian basins in general for Igilovites have enormous potential; in my opinion, their capabilities in this region of the planet have not yet been fully utilized.
Given all these factors, I will take the liberty of assuming that, despite the defeats in Syria and Iraq, the “caliphate” is not going to surrender, and a big war with the radicals is yet to come. Moreover, it will affect several continents at once. And the twilight of the “caliphate” that we are now observing must be used in order to prepare for it as best as possible.
* “Islamic State” (ISIS, ISIS) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.