Operation "spring of peace" in Syria .. Concerns and challenges

Turkey has long talked that its national security will be achieved only by the intervention of its military forces in northern Syria, and the building of a real safe area, not just a security zone as the United States wanted.

The mechanics of dealing with the Turks in the Manbij file revealed that the joint patrols outside the city, the exodus of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) apparently out of the city center, and its formal management by its people were nothing but an illusion that could not convince Turkey of its seriousness.

The reality on the southern border of Ankara has become a real threat to Turkish national security, and will not be faded by the presence of military forces of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) under the name of "SDF", it is classified as a terrorist party to the Turks and have made great effort to impose that classification within the countries of the "Alliance" NATO. "

The famous December 2018 call by U.S. President Donald Trump and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, in which Trump decided to withdraw from northeastern Syria, lasted only a few hours, and later Trump underwent American institutions that refused to withdraw, leading to interpretations and justifications. About the misunderstanding of Trump's statement.

However, Erdogan's insistence and careful reading of Trump's real desire to get out of Syria, because of his focus on the economic growth of his country and his quest to benefit from the withdrawal of troops in his upcoming election campaign. This is in addition to the distinguished role of Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, who comes from the Turkish General Staff, which has close ties with the Pentagon, and his frequent visits to Washington.

As well as the ongoing Turkish media campaign internally and externally on the need for a safe area; so that the Turkish leaders were not left an opportunity only and recalled the issue, stressing that the Turkish national security can be achieved only; which made the Turkish public ready for it. The opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) voted in favor of the intervention, while the Democratic People's Party (PDP), which is close to the PKK, opposed it.

The recent call by the Turkish and US presidents, in which the US Secretary of State, the US Defense Secretary and the Chief of Staff, attended to prevent a repeat of the first call from the implementation of the resolution, led to a direct decision by President Erdogan to launch a surprise military operation called "the spring of peace", so as to prevent They refuse - for international and regional reasons - to exert pressure on Ankara to cancel it.

Therefore, the Turkish army was ready after the call to start the battle to become a reality that is difficult to overcome later, in addition to coordination with the "Free Syrian Army" by uniting the factions under the banner of the Ministry of Defense - in the Syrian interim government - led by Major General Salim Idris, to participate together In that process.

After the issue of the Turkish air defense's downing of the Russian plane (on November 24, 2015), Turkish diplomacy was able to balance its relations with Russia and America, leaving both sides unwilling to lose it, enabling it to market itself as a mutually acceptable state.

It has also been able to take advantage of US pressure on Iran to notify the Iranians that it is a necessary lifeline for them if the blockades evolve, as noted in the writings of some Iranian journalists or affiliated with Tehran in Lebanon, who showed their dissatisfaction with the Turkish intervention, although they are part of the "Astana axis" .

The military experience of the Turkish army confirms that it is an army with a doctrine of combat and good planning and implementation, and this happened earlier when he intervened in Cyprus in 1974 under the government of Bulent Ecevit and Necmettin Erbakan, and finally in his recent operations under the "Euphrates Shield", especially "Olive Branch" During which an PKK military operation was carried out in a difficult terrain.

Over the past decades, the PKK has built fortifications and tunnels in these areas and built its own military routes, known only to the inhabitants of the region to manipulate the Turks and disturb them from time to time. This only stopped after serious threats of Turkish intervention in 1997 under Turkish President Suleiman Demirel, and after the intervention of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, a deal was abandoned Damascus to support and shelter PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan and his party.

The Adana agreement was later signed in 1998, under which the Assad regime allowed Turkish forces to intervene 5 kilometers to fight terrorism.This means the PKK militias, which Russia tried to exploit to change Turkey's treatment of the Syrian file as a crisis between two countries.

However, many writers and thinkers talk about possible concerns that may occur, including the fact that the process of "spring of peace" is a quagmire America sought to involve the Turks, such as the involvement of the late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in the invasion of Kuwait, although there is a time difference and positioning differences in the two countries, In addition to the state of balance of power and the nature of the international crisis, and the reality of Turkey after the arrival of the Justice and Development Party to power.

Some also say that Turkey wants to make a demographic change in the region by returning one million refugees to the area, forgetting that there are more than one million Syrian refugees - out of a total of nearly four million in Turkey - whose origins are in that area. - the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party - by displacing them from their areas in Raqqa and Hasakah.

They sought to implement forced recruitment and racism and committed human rights violations documented by Amnesty International and many human rights organizations in order to reach a separatist project away from the wishes of the people of the region. The majority of Syrian refugees in Urfa and Mardin - the border strip adjacent to that area - moved to the other bank during the SDF period.

The attempts of some to promote that logic contradict the national concept, whose slogans have been raised by the Syrian revolution.

Is it conceivable - in return - to demand the people of Damascus and Aleppo return of the Kurds of the island and Afrin and the Arabs to their areas ?! This logic is nationally and morally unacceptable because Syria is for all Syrians, knowing that the inhabitants of the big cities are not suited to the nature of agricultural life, they master trade and industry, not agriculture.

The legitimate question to find a clear answer is: can the liberation of the spring of peace from the PKK be a pressure element on the international community until a just political solution for the Syrian people is adopted? Or is this a Turkish expansionist process targeting minorities as many countries claim?

The Arab League, which overlooked the Russian bombardment of Aleppo, Idlib and Ghouta and the intervention of Iranian, Iraqi and Lebanese militias, has suddenly woken up, defending minorities and the sovereignty of Syria, which for years has been violated to the bone. All indications point to the infinite pragmatism of the SDF, which could lead to the restoration of relations with the Assad regime in exchange for concessions, so that it can be part of a possible settlement in partnership with Iran and Russia.

However, the leaders of the Syrian opposition have become increasingly concerned and serious, after the adoption of the Constitutional Committee away from the statement "Geneva 1" and UN Resolutions 2118 and 2254. Insecurity and the failure to organize effective management of the liberated areas are similar to what Ankara has done in Turkish Cyprus, in terms of providing completed and adequate support for a stable life.

The reassignment of an appropriate figure to lead a new Syrian interim government - taking advantage of all the experience of the last phase - has become an urgent necessity if the entire region is liberated.

Removing these concerns requires a frank dialogue between Turkey and the Syrian opposition after the latter rebuilds its institutions to go beyond non-national quotas and loyalties, as everyone sees the state of sagging and weak Syrian decision-making mechanisms belonging to the revolution.

The 'spring of peace' process can be a central region where the common interests of Turkey / Syria / the Gulf intersect. The region is a state of stability that prevents religious and nationalist terrorist groups from spilling back into Syria.

This state of stability will be the main pillar for building a political solution, and this will make it difficult for Syria to return agriculturally and oil-beneficial to the hands of the regime. , Making the future Syria a cultural bridge linking Europe, Turkey and the Gulf.

This concept is to be marketed by the leaders of the opposition, so that Syria is a state that contributes to the stability and prosperity of the region, is not polarized for the benefit of one country or another. If Turkey and the opposition realize this, the process will be a real turning point in the interest of peace and stability, which is hoped for the peoples of the region, which has suffered greatly from the scourge and oppression of the despotic despots.