Radio silence on the side of Saudi Arabia. Two days after a drone strike that hit two of Saudi's biggest oil sites, Riyadh still had not made an official point on the extent of the damage, late Monday, September 16th.
The consequences of these attacks are in any case unprecedented for the kingdom, forced to halve its oil production. The rest of the world is also affected, the market being deprived of 5.7 million barrels of crude per day, or nearly 6% of the world's daily production of black gold.
Asian countries in first line
A lack that is likely to affect in the first place the Asian countries. "Saudi Arabia's most important customer is China, with about 1.8 million barrels of Saudi oil imported per day." Japan comes in second with one million barrels a day, and India, at the third place, importing 776,000, "says Ellen Wald, senior researcher at the Atlantic Council for Energy Policy, an American think tank specializing in international relations.
But Saudi Arabia, as the world's largest oil exporter, "also plays a vital role in supplying the global market," says Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega, director of the Energy and Climate Center of the French Institute of Petroleum. international relations (Ifri).
This is why "everyone expects to know very concretely the extent of the destruction and how long will take the repairs", continues the French expert. Over the weekend, Saudi sources had hinted that a return to normal could be fast, suggesting a delay of a few weeks. But this optimism seemed out of place on Monday, and Saudi Arabia should not be able to return to its usual level of production for several months, says Reuters, citing sources close to Saudi Aramco, the public oil group Saudi.
How long ?
Riyadh runs after time in this case. The general opinion is that if the kingdom manages to clean up everything in a few months, the impact on the oil supply should be limited. The market, it is true, does not lack black gold. The shale oil boom in the United States and the rise in Russian production, in particular, have contributed to supply being well in excess of demand, which has also been weighed down by Sino-US trade tensions.
A context that has allowed everyone to build comfortable stocks - starting with the Asian countries. "China and India for example can hold a month in autarky," said Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega. Saudi Aramco has also stored millions of barrels of crude oil in Japan, precisely to deal with this type of unforeseen event. "The Saudis will do everything they can to honor their commitments to Asian customers to maintain their market share," said Ali Ghezelbash, associate director and Middle East specialist at the UK consulting firm Critical Resource.
States can also mobilize their strategic reserves, made mandatory by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Developed countries have about three billion barrels to avoid shortages, sufficient to meet global demand for two months if the world oil production fell to zero, says the IEA. The United States alone, with its status as the world's largest oil producer, retains 713 million barrels of crude on its reserves.
Trump to the rescue ?
US President Donald Trump has also announced Sunday that he was ready to tap into these stocks. "This would be the first time that the United States would play the regulators of the oil market.A major turnaround for a country that, until a few decades ago, depended on the goodwill of the countries of OPEC (Organization of the Countries). oil producers), "says The Wall Street Journal.
But the announcement of Donald Trump "is primarily psychological to calm the markets," says Ellen Wald. First, because the United States relies very little on Saudi oil, which limits the risk of scarcity on American soil. Secondly, because their ports are already full and they can hardly export more, which limits their ability to play the deputy roles of Saudi Arabia in world markets.
The most likely scenario would be, according to Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega, "a strategy decided by the IEA Member States in coordination with associated countries, such as India and China, in favor of progressive mobilization of strategic stocks ".
But this mobilization can only last a time. In the opinion of experts interviewed, if Riyadh fails to put its machine back to production and export in working order in less than a year, the risks of shortages would become real. "In this case, the regulation will be by prices, and we will expect sustainable increase in oil prices," says Ali Ghezelbash.
The pressure on prices would increase further if the regional diplomatic situation degenerated. "If we realize that it will take a long time to repair, and that there is also an escalation on the ground with retaliatory measures, then we open the Pandora's box", notes Marc-Antoine Eyl- Mazzega. As such, the rhetoric of Donald Trump, who accused Iran of being responsible for the attack and said he was ready to "fight back", said the situation could quickly escalate.
Riyadh, for its part, wants to prevent prices from blazing because "a rise would benefit US producers of shale oil [more expensive to produce than traditional Saudi oil, Ed]," said Ali Ghezelbash. And Saudi Arabia has done everything in recent years to keep crude prices relatively low to thwart US attempts to grab market share.
Anyway, Donald Trump does not necessarily see a good eye oil expensive. Especially in view of the presidential election of 2020. "This is the dilemma of the tenant of the White House: a rise in the price of the barrel could favor US producers, but will affect the prices at the pump that are important for its base, "notes Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega.
For Saudi Arabia, a quick return to normal is not just about price control. The same goes for the credibility of Saudi Aramco. The kingdom has been preparing for several years the IPO of its oil giant. An ambition that has just taken the lead in the wing: "An IPO is difficult to envisage until Saudi Arabia has stabilized its regional position.In a context of high tension, infrastructure Aramco can be destroyed, "said Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega.