Legislative: Benjamin Netanyahu plays the populist card and its political survival

All for all for a new mandate. Benjamin Netanyahu, who is fighting for political survival when he must be heard in October by the Attorney General who will decide on his charges of corruption, fraud and breach of trust in three cases, raises the stakes to a few days of Israeli elections September 17th.

The Prime Minister, who has built himself an image of Israel's ultimate defense against Iran and its regional allies like Hezbollah, is conducting a campaign with ultranationalist accents and focused primarily on the security of the Jewish state, so to seduce the electorate of the right and especially of the extreme right.

"His goal, according to the experts and the entire Israeli opposition, is to siphon the voices of the extreme right that he absolutely needs to top the poll of September 17," says Antoine Mariotti, France 24 correspondent in Jerusalem .

"Benjamin Netanyahu is ready for anything"

It is in this sense that he promised, on Tuesday, September 10, that if he was returned to power, he would unilaterally annex the Jordan Valley, one third of the occupied West Bank. A last minute promise, described as desperate and electioneering by its critics, and supposed to mobilize a large electorate: its base, but also the voters who are on his right, and the 400,000 settlers established in the West Bank.

"Benjamin Netanyahu is ready for anything because of the business that could weigh on the continuation of his political career, said Elisabeth Marteu, associate researcher at the International Institute of Strategic Studies and specialist in Israel, interviewed by France 24. We have much talked about a personification of power, but there is also a personalization of power, with Benjamin Netanyahu who uses all possible tools to make himself unavoidable and to appear as the providential politician that Israel needs to survive ".

A message hammered daily on social networks, in the many speeches of Benjamin Netanyahu, and in his campaign clips, one of which presents as a benevolent swimmer who invites bathers to stay "right" on the beach.

Watch Likud's funny campaign ad portraying @netanyahu as lifeguard, with English subtitles. pic.twitter.com/TzXyuefk5T

The poll of 17 September, the second in less than six months in Israel, after the failure of the Prime Minister to form a coalition government after the legislative elections in April, looks very tight. The latest polls published by the local media predict an elbow-to-elbow between the boss of Likud and his main rival, the former chief of staff Benny Gantz, at the head of a centrist list Bleu Blanc.

While the Israeli media evokes a vote synonymous with a referendum for or against him, his image of a prime minister guarantor of security is undermined since the resumption in mid-August of attempted infiltration into Israel and shooting rockets from the Palestinian coastal strip. Worse, while being shelled on this theme by his rivals, Benjamin Netanyahu experienced a devastating moment in terms of image, just hours after his announcement on the Jordan Valley, when he was forced to evacuate the podium of a rally in the city of Ashdod, after the sounding of sirens announcing imminent rocket fire from the Gaza Strip.

"Benjamin Netanyahu is perceived as a strong leader in security, but in the camp opposite, Benny Gantz's list of three former chiefs of staff, explains to France 24 Gideon Rahat, professor of political science at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, so the security issue does not give him enough leverage, but his handling of the Hamas case in the Gaza Strip has earned him a lot of criticism. "

Yet the Prime Minister has insisted on this theme by revealing and mediating several confidential and sensitive information on Israeli operations abroad. Earlier this week, he accused Tehran, with maps and Powerpoint presentation, of building and destroying a previously unknown site for nuclear weapons.

The opposition has seen red and criticized a strategy that calls into question, for electoral purposes, the policy of strategic ambiguity of the Jewish state. "Netanyahu uses information to propagate its propaganda, Iran's nuclear can not be used for campaigning," said Yair Lapid, a heavyweight on the Blue White list.

On August 24, the head of the government had already revealed that Israeli warplanes had carried out strikes in Syria to prevent an Iranian drone attack against Israel, while the Hebrew State did not usually confirm or deny, its responsibility in this kind of operation.

His relationship with Trump, a first-rate campaign argument

In addition to the manipulation of the Iranian threat that criticizes the opposition, the Prime Minister also relies on its international stature to ensure maximum votes. In particular surfing on the lack of leadership in the opposition and on his special relationship with Donald Trump. "Benjamin Netanyahu often puts forward his personal relationship with the American president, it is one of his main arguments of campaigning with the security, explains Antoine Mariotti.In order to try to be re-elected, he affirms that without this special relationship nothing would be possible for the Jewish state ".

It is true that since the arrival of the American billionaire in 2016, the situation has changed significantly in favor of Benjamin Netanyahu, who had miserable relations with his predecessor, Barack Obama. In May 2018, the United States had moved its embassy to Jerusalem, synonymous with an official recognition of the city as the capital of Israel and a political victory for the head of the government of the Jewish state.

Already in March, shortly before the legislative elections in April, Donald Trump announced his country's recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, a Syrian territory conquered during the 1967 war and annexed in 1981. An Electoral Offering top notch for the Israeli Prime Minister, then heckled in the polls by Benny Gantz.

"Giant posters are currently showing in several Israeli cities showing Benjamin Netanyahu smiling, shaking hands with the US president," says Antoine Mariotti, "and a few days ago his services announced that he will travel to Moscow to meet with them. Vladimir Putin, a few days before the election ".

A way for him to comfort the image he is cultivating and to make a foot call to the Russian-speaking electorate of the ultra-nationalist and secular party leader Israel Beiteinou, Avigdor Liebermann.

The latter, though a former defense minister and even former chief of staff of Benjamin Netanyahu, is at the origin of the political difficulties of the Prime Minister. It was because of Avigdor Liebermann's refusal to join his governing coalition that Benjamin Netanyahu resolved to demand the dissolution of the Parliament resulting from the April legislative elections and the organization of early elections.

Comforted by the polls, which promise to Avigdor Liebermann's party 10 seats of deputies (against the 5 obtained in April), the far-right leader, who tries to seduce voters tired of his former mentor, in power continuously since 2009 (absolute record of longevity), sees itself as a potential kingmaker after the election.

A likely outcome that gives cold sweats to the Netanyahu camp, facing a fractured right and caught between the laity and ultra-religious, themselves divided on issues of society. Enough to compromise the margin of maneuver of the Likud leader to form a coalition in case of victory on 17 September.

But that's not all: despite the effectiveness of the electoral machine of his party and his strong base of voters, "Bibi" would even be challenged by some of the right, ulcerated by the turn of the campaign and its strategy anti-establishment adopted to counter its legal difficulties.

"In the same right wing, in the liberal and democratic sphere, there is some dissatisfaction with Benjamin Netanyahu," said Gideon Rahat, of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and those who supported him tasted little. his shift to the camp of the populist right, nor more recently his criticisms and attacks on the judiciary, the media, and what he calls the old elite ".

A campaign of a single man against all, in fact, which allows him all the same, despite criticism and business, to always be the main favorite of the poll.