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The fight against climate change takes place in two different times: present and future. On the one hand it is necessary to respond to the consequences that global warming is already causing worldwide; on the other, there are efforts to limit the increase in temperatures below 1.5º - ideally below 2º - in the next decades, as the Paris Agreement was established. Facing both realities implies understanding and anticipating the weather patterns that are changing the frequency and intensity of droughts, floods, fires and storms.

River floods, for example, cause thousands of victims every year around the world. 2018 was particularly devastating in Europe: the violence of the rains and the floods that left in its wake took the lives of 69 people, mostly in Italy, France and Spain. It is estimated, moreover, that globally they cause material damages worth more than 90,000 million euros, a figure that continues to increase every year. European scientists have long believed that there is a relationship between climate change and the frequency of these disasters, since a warmer atmosphere stores more water, but so far this connection has not been proven.

This Wednesday, Nature magazine presents the results of a great investigation in which 50 scientists from 35 institutions in 24 countries have collaborated, and confirms this hypothesis. "Previously, this question could not be answered on a continental scale," explains Luis Mediero, professor at the Polytechnic University of Madrid (UPM). "But now we can confidently answer yes: the impact of climate change on the magnitude of flooding is clearly visible at European level."

Less frequent in the north

Although the results confirm the connection between floods and global warming, the authors point out that their effect is not the same in all regions: they are increasingly frequent in northwestern Europe and less and less in the south and east of the continent . In central and northern Europe - from Iceland to the Alps - this increase is explained by the greater amount of rainfall and the wettest soils. Meanwhile, in the south, there is less and less rain and higher temperatures, which causes greater evaporation of soil water. This is the case in Spain, where scientists attribute the global flood reduction to the increase in evapotranspiration rates, which make the soil drier at the beginning of the storms.

However, the UPM researcher points out that in small rivers floods could be increasing, due to more violent and frequent thunderstorms and changes in land management. "The database that has been used does not include the smallest basins, only a few square kilometers," explains Mediero. "In them the floods are caused by convective storms of short duration and great intensity, such as those caused by floods in Spain this week. And with climate change these storms are expected to be more severe."

Prepare the future

A first investigation of this same group of scientists, published in the journal Science in 2017, had already revealed that climate change has varied the temporal pattern, that is, the time of year, in which floods occur. Now, in this new work, the authors highlight not only the changes in their dynamics but their statistical magnitude, since in certain regions the registered decrease is 23.1% per decade, while in areas of northern Great Britain the floods have increased by 11.4%. The study, prepared with data from almost 3,800 stations across Europe, measures records between 1960 and 2010.

The authors believe that these new findings should be taken into account when developing flood management strategies. According to scientists, regardless of the efforts needed to mitigate global climate change, its effects will have a tangible impact in the coming decades, so water management services and infrastructure must be prepared for this new reality. .

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