Air raids in Syria and Lebanon, suspicions of drone attacks in Iraq against a pro-Iranian Shiite militia and in the southern suburbs of Beirut against Hezbollah ... the Israeli army is accused of having increased operations in recent days against Shiite movements allied to the Islamic Republic of Iran. So far limited to Syrian territory, the extension of the indirect confrontation between Israel and Iran gives rise to fears of a regional explosion.

So far, Israel has only acknowledged the strikes in Syria, but on Monday evening, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a Hebrew video broadcast by his office that his country is ready to defend itself "by all necessary means "in the face of Iran acting" on several fronts "against it.

In a context of maximum tensions between the United States and Iran in the Gulf, the UN called on Monday the parties concerned to "maximum restraint".

Hezbollah announces quick reaction

While Iraq has condemned an attack on its sovereignty, the most virulent reaction to the operations attributed to Israelis came from neighboring Lebanon. "What has happened is like a 'declaration of war' that allows us to use our right to defend our sovereignty," the Lebanese presidency said on Monday, citing President Michel Aoun in a tweet.

But it is mainly Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah who significantly raised the tone on Sunday. He described the drone attack over the southern suburbs of Beirut, one of his party's main strongholds, as Israel's "first act of aggression" in Lebanon since the war with Israel. Hebrew State in 2006. The Shiite leader close to Iran, who also revealed that the last raid in Syria had killed two of his fighters, promised retaliation, even suggesting that the response could come from Lebanese territory , so directly on Israeli soil, in a few days.

"Hezbollah has threatened to retaliate because I think it has the capabilities," Naji Malaeb, a retired Lebanese general and military strategy expert, told France 24. "Notably with drones, which his fighters know how to use and which they have already used in Syria, these are the same machines with which the Houthis of Yemen were able to penetrate the Saudi airspace".

"Many people seem to be playing with fire at a most sensitive time," and "any other incident of this kind could very well trigger a broader confrontation," warns Karim Emile Bitar, director of research at the Institute of International Relations and strategic (Iris) in Paris, quoted by AFP.

Hezbollah, repeatedly targeted by air raids attributed to Israel in Syria, where it is deployed in support of President Bashar al-Assad's troops, has so far refrained from retaliating. And this, as long as he was not targeted in his bastions of the southern suburbs of Beirut or in South Lebanon, a red line repeatedly recalled by the pro-Iranian movement. A principle always respected, to avoid opening a second front for its fighters, except when party cadres are directly targeted by the Israelis.

In January 2015, a dozen days after the death of an Iranian general and several Hezbollah members during an Israeli strike in the Syrian Golan, the Shia party attacked an Israeli military convoy near the Syrian-Lebanese border. causing the death of two Israeli soldiers. An exception that can be explained by the particular profile of one of the victims of the Israeli raid, Jihad Moughnieh, son of Imad Moughnieh, figure of the party, himself assassinated in Damascus in 2008.

Nasrallah believes that the rules of engagement between his party and Israel have changed

But on Sunday, Hassan Nasrallah considered that the Hebrew State had changed the rule of the game, in force since the end of the 2006 war, operating in Lebanon. He announced that his fighters will not "allow" the repetition of such drone attacks "whatever the price" and "will do anything to prevent them" in the future.

On August 24, Benjamin Netanyahu had explicitly suggested that the rule of engagement had changed in a statement posted on his Twitter account. "Iran does not enjoy any immunity whatsoever," he wrote, "our forces are operating in any place against Iranian aggression." Justifying that his country could lead attacks outside Syria, he added, "If anyone gets up to kill you, kill him first."

"The question of the response is acquired and far behind us, it is a question of knowing now what will be the timing, the target and the form," the Lebanese daily "L'Orient-Le Jour" told the daily. Shiite Party Communication Bureau, Mohammad Afif. It remains to be seen how large this Hezbollah response will be, forced to react to Hassan Nasrallah's public threats. The Lebanese press refers to a Shiite party "placed before the fait accompli" and facing a balancing act that will allow it to save its credibility while avoiding triggering a new destructive war for Lebanon.

"Hezbollah is facing a dilemma: if he refrains from answering, he loses his face, and if he retaliates, he does not know what Benjamin Netanyahu's reaction will be and how big it will be," L 'Orient-The Day.

On Tuesday, the Israeli prime minister suggested Hassan Nasrallah "to calm down" during a speech in Jerusalem. "He knows how Israel can defend itself and give change to its enemies," he added. Still, his government has taken Hezbollah's threats very seriously, warning levels have been raised in the north of the country and in the outposts along the Lebanese and Syrian borders.

"Play with fire"

In Israel, we wonder about the strategy of extending the conflict with Iran, even if the omnipresence in Syria and the expansion of the Iranian influence in the region are widely perceived as threats by the public opinion Israeli. "There is a lot of misunderstanding in the country, where we wonder about the army's ability to cope with many fronts, especially since the situation remains volatile in southern Israel, where three rockets were fired Sunday night from the Gaza Strip, "reports Layla Odeh, France 24 correspondent in Jerusalem.

"It is not in Israel's interest to attack Hezbollah in the current context," said Naji Malaeb, "but it's still playing with fire because the Israeli army enjoys air superiority. and advanced technological means, did not need to send such drones into populated areas to collect intelligence, unless it sought to send a message or to test the reaction of Hezbollah ".

For their part, the Israeli media, like the daily Haaretz, wonder if electoral considerations played a role in this escalation of tensions, while Benjamin Netanyahu has just entered the final stretch of the Israeli legislative campaign of 17 September.

Asked by AFP, Yaakov Amidror, former national security adviser to Benjamin Netanyahu, dismissed the idea of ​​an influence of the electoral calendar, arguing that the Israeli army is generally not dictated its strategies by election campaigns . But he said however that the strike in Syria could "help [Benjamin Netanyahu] politically in the next elections."

Nevertheless, the scale and nature of Hezbollah's response, a few weeks before the vote, could also weigh on the elections.