Why Washington struggles to form naval coalition in the Strait of Hormuz

At first reluctant, the British authorities finally decided on August 5 to participate in the "maritime security mission" alongside the United States in the Strait of Hormuz. It is the first country, and for now the only one, to join the "international coalition" that Washington wants to set up to escort commercial vessels in this ultra-strategic region of the Gulf.

London could hardly stand back when a British-flagged commercial vessel was boarded by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards on July 18. "The UK is determined to protect its ships against illegal threats, and that's why we today joined the new maritime security mission in the Gulf, "British Defense Minister Ben Wallace said on 5 August. A frigate, a destroyer and four Royal Navy minesweepers escort commercial vessels affiliated with the Crown, with the logistical support of the US Army whose Fifth Fleet is based in the region.

The crisis began between May and June after a series of attacks and sabotage against commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz, where a third of the oil shipped by sea passes. The United States had accused Iran, with the attacks soon after US sanctions against its oil exports. The Islamic Republic denies its involvement.

The head of the British diplomacy, Dominic Raab, made it clear that his country did not wish to interfere in the conflict between Washington and Tehran. London remains "committed to working with Iran and [its] international partners to defuse the situation and maintain the nuclear deal" of 2015 from which the Americans withdrew after Donald Trump came to power.

[TOP STORY AT 9:00 PM] The UK has announced its participation in a "maritime security mission" alongside the United States to protect merchant ships in the strategic strait of Ormuz, just as Iran mocked Washington's isolation #AFP 4/5 pic.twitter.com/HjbfqF5XpR

"Trump presses on his allies"

France and Germany, urged by the United States and the United Kingdom to join the coalition, are more cautious, and remain behind. The stakes are high for the diplomats of the two countries who denounce the American sanctions against Iran and the unilateralism advocated by the tenant of the White House. "The Trump administration is using this crisis in the Gulf to put pressure on its allies to get involved in global security issues, which is an opportunity because the Strait of Hormuz is a vital transportation corridor. the world, the responsibility to secure the region must be shared, "said Sanam Vakil, an analyst at the British think tank Chatham House and specialist Gulf.

But the US president seems to have alienated his allies who prefer to protect the precious Iranian nuclear deal and avoid poisoning an already explosive situation. Indeed, if Teheran and Washington seem more to seek than to fight, increased militarization of the narrow Straits of Ormuz, whose sovereignty is shared by Iran and the Sultanate of Oman, is a dangerous gamble. "The military coalition that America is seeking to form, with the excuse of safe shipping, will only increase insecurity in the region," Iran's Defense Minister Amir Hatami said on August 8.

At the end of the terrible war between Iran and Iraq, in 1988, such an international coalition had already been set up in the Persian Gulf to protect the oil tankers attacked by the two belligerents and allow the oil to be transported. internationally. An American cruiser had mistakenly shot down an Iranian civilian plane, causing 290 civilian casualties.

"Do not go over red line"

If nothing indicates, for the moment, that the escalation between the United States and Iran can provoke a military confrontation, the analysts warn that everything is possible. "The Iranians will remain cautious, do not go beyond the red line, but they will continue to brush against it because they want to assert their sovereignty and their security interests.In this climate of very strong sanctions, they want to have the most cards in hand. to push back the Trump administration, including pushing its allies to show their support for Tehran and put pressure on Washington, "said Sanam Vakil.

The Iranian authorities claim to be able, thanks to their large military presence in the region, to secure maritime traffic. But they have repeatedly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz if US sanctions continue to stifle its economy.

"The Iranians show their nuisance in the region, it's a very dangerous controlled game, but by dint of playing with fire, it's not impossible that we're heading for war, "warns Francis Perrin, IRIS specialist of energy issues.

The Gulf monarchies in a delicate position

At the forefront of this crisis between the United States and the Islamic Republic, the Gulf monarchies, whose economy depends almost exclusively on the revenues of oil and gas transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, do not have the easy. Qatar, and to a lesser extent Kuwait and Oman, prefer not to get involved in the American coalition, which could make them vulnerable to their powerful Iranian neighbor. "Behind the scenes, they think dialogue and diplomacy can be more productive" than threats and sanctions, says Sanam Vakil. The United Arab Emirates, which is also in favor of the policy of pressure against Tehran, has also continued in recent weeks the signals of appeasement and refrained from accusing Iran of causing sabotage in June.

As for Saudi Arabia, Washington's most loyal ally and Iran's best enemy in the region, its support for the hard line of the Trump administration remains total. But the Wahhabi monarchy is mired in the deadly conflict in Yemen where it faces rebels backed by the Islamic Republic. "If the Saudis want to extricate themselves from Yemen, they will have to talk to Iran, and Tehran says it is ready for a while," said Sanam Vakil.

Beyond the risk of slippage, the Gulf crisis shows Donald Trump the limits of his isolationist policy. Only the American president can not take a long time to risk the confrontation. US oil market experts expect it to soon backtrack, so as not to risk falling in the polls ahead of the campaign for the presidential election of 2020.