Will the Naka conflict detonate a total war between Asia and Afghanistan?
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, September 28 (International Observation) Will the Nakah conflict detonate an all-out war between Asia and Afghanistan
Xinhua News Agency reporter Sun Ping
Armenia and Azerbaijan broke out in the Naka region on the 27th. Both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement and taking the lead in launching a military offensive.
Analysts pointed out that around the Naka region, the two countries have been in friction for many years. This conflict can be said to be another outbreak of conflicts between the two sides.
At present, Armenia has announced the implementation of general military mobilization, while Azerbaijan has announced that it has entered a state of war. The conflict may continue for a period of time. However, considering all factors, it is unlikely that the conflict will evolve into a full-scale war.
On September 28, local time, a set of pictures provided by the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs showed people in the Nagorno-Karabakh area living in underground air-raid shelters for refuge.
According to reports, on the 27th, a new round of conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Naka region aroused the concern of the international community.
At present, both countries have declared that they have entered a "wartime state."
Conflict
According to reports, both sides used heavy weapons in the conflict and suffered losses.
According to the Armenian Ministry of Defense, 16 Armenian soldiers died in the conflict.
Both countries accused each other of firing first.
Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan said that Azerbaijan has declared war on the Armenian people, and that a full-scale military action may be taken in the border area between the two countries, and the conflict may extend beyond the border between the two countries and cause irreversible consequences.
Azerbaijani President Aliyev stated that the Azerbaijani army responded to the shelling from the Armenian side of the line of contact in the Naka region.
He emphasized that resolving the Naka issue is a historical task of Azerbaijan and will not allow the establishment of a second so-called "Armenian state" on the "land of the Azerbaijanis".
The Naka region was an autonomous prefecture of Azerbaijan during the Soviet period, and most of its residents were Armenians.
In 1988, Naka demanded to be incorporated into Armenia, leading to conflicts between the Azerbaijani and Armenians in the state.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan and Armenia broke out in a battle for Nagorny, and Armenia occupied Nagorny and its surrounding parts of Azerbaijan.
In 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenia reached an agreement on a comprehensive ceasefire, but the two countries have been in a state of hostility due to the Naka issue, and armed conflicts between the two countries have occurred from time to time.
In recent years, as its economic strength has risen, Azerbaijan’s demands for regaining control over Naqqa have become stronger, while Armenia wants to maintain the status quo.
Yang Jin, deputy director of the Central Asia Department of the Russian, Eastern Europe and Central Asia Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the new crown epidemic has severely affected the economic development of the two countries, which in turn has fueled nationalist sentiment, which has made the Naqqa issue more sensitive and the conflict is on the verge .
On the 27th, UN Secretary-General Guterres expressed extreme concern over the outbreak of a new round of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Naka region, calling on both sides to immediately stop fighting.
However, the Russian Satellite News Agency quoted the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense as saying on the 28th that Armenia bombed the Azerbaijani border town of Tertel early that morning and the Azerbaijani side warned of retaliation.
On September 27, local time, a new round of conflict broke out in Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Naka region. Both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement and taking the lead in launching a military offensive.
Both sides of Asia and Afghanistan said that the current conflict in the contact line between the two sides in the Naqqa area is still continuing.
After the conflict, both countries carried out military mobilization at home on the same day.
(Video screenshot)
Fierce game
Analysts pointed out that the Naka issue is called the "Caucasus powder barrel" and involves multiple interests. Therefore, in addition to the two countries of Asia and Afghanistan, the game of external forces will play an important role in the direction of the Naka situation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had a phone conversation with Pashinyan on the 27th to discuss the situation in the Naka region.
The Kremlin website issued a statement saying that the current important task is to take all necessary efforts to prevent further escalation of the confrontation. The key is that the two sides stop military operations.
The EU’s high representative for foreign and security policy Borelli said in a statement on the 27th that the EU calls on both parties to the conflict to immediately cease hostilities, strictly abide by the ceasefire provisions, and return to negotiations within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group without preconditions.
In 1992, the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (the predecessor of the OSCE) established a Minsk group composed of 12 countries, with Russia, the United States and France as co-chairs to coordinate the settlement of the Naqqa conflict.
Turkish President Erdogan said on social media after a phone call with Aliyev on the 27th, “Armenia has launched another attack on Azerbaijan, once again proving that it threatens regional security”.
Yang Jin said that Turkey and Armenia are feuding over the so-called "Armenian Massacre" and are closer to Azerbaijan in terms of ethnicity and language. Therefore, they are on the side of Azerbaijan on the Naka issue.
Analysts pointed out that Armenia has long had close relations with Russia and is a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union.
And Azerbaijan has always hoped to get more support from Russia on the Naka issue. Over the years, it has actively promoted cooperation with Russia in the fields of energy, economy and trade, and the relations between the two countries have made continuous progress.
In view of its relations with Asia and Afghanistan, Russia will play a vital role in this conflict.
As the most influential country in the region, Russia will not sit back and watch the Naqqa conflict get out of control and affect its own interests.
Yang Jin believes that the Naka issue is related to the security issues in southern Russia. If the Naka conflict goes out of control, it may stimulate ethnic and religious conflicts in southern Russia, and the terrorist activities that have plagued Russia for many years may come back.
Some experts pointed out that the United States has used geopolitical games as a starting point for many years to disrupt the situation in the Eurasian region and contain Russia's influence in the region. Therefore, how the United States intervenes in the Naka issue and how other external forces play games are also worthy of attention.
But overall, the conflict may last for a while, but it is unlikely to evolve into a full-scale war.