The Girondins de Bordeaux (19th) are playing very (very) big this Wednesday (7 p.m.) by facing a direct competitor for the maintenance in Ligue 1, AS Saint-Etienne (17th).
Stuck beyond 15th place since the start of the championship, these two big historic clubs in our championship are clearly in danger.
Six days from the end,
20 Minutes
compares them with Didier Tholot, a former striker for the Greens and then the Girondins in the 1990s, as an impartial judge.
On September 18, we were already wondering at
20 Minutes
, before the first leg in the Cauldron: which of these flagship clubs was going to be most in danger as to its maintenance in Ligue 1?
Seven months later, we find the Girondins de Bordeaux (19th) and AS Saint-Etienne (17th), as we anticipated, for a match of fear +++, this Wednesday (7 p.m.), at six days of the end of the championship.
We were not the only ones to have an inspired crystal ball concerning the (non) ambitions of Bordeaux and Saint-Etienne, since the AFP headlined its dispatches identically before the outward and return journey: "Historical monuments in danger" .
Former striker of the Greens (from 1991 to 1993) and the Girondins (from 1995 to 1997), Didier Tholot helps us to determine, in four categories, who has the most profile to avoid sinking in Ligue 2 next month.
The coach: ADVANTAGE SAINT-ETIENNE
The four points of difference between the two teams largely lie here.
That is to say on the change of coach made during the season.
If the replacement of Claude Puel by Pascal Dupraz is rather a success, that of Vladimir Petkovic by David Guion is much less so.
Since his arrival, the former Téfécé hero has averaged 1.21 points per game, while his Bordeaux counterpart has only posted 0.75 points, with only one small victory in eight games.
The psychological shock simply did not take place in Gironde.
Good last in Ligue 1 with 12 points in 17 days at the start of December, the Greens are no longer eligible for relegation, nor even play-offs.
Beyond having been able to revive a Denis Bouanga at the bottom of the hole for more than a year with Claude Puel, Pascal Dupraz has remobilized an entire group, which suffered in 2022 only one absolute rout in L1, to Lorient (from 0-2 to 6-2).
Meanwhile, David Guion failed to get the Girondins out of the red zone.
Worse, his players are even now a little off the hook in this race for maintenance, and their backs to the wall this Wednesday after the new spanking suffered on Sunday in Lyon (6-1).
Didier Tholot's opinion: “Clearly, it's Dupraz's advantage so far.
He has taken many more points than Guion since joining the club.
One is more about affect (Dupraz) and the other more about acting (Guion).
Today, it is with the first that it works best.
He also has more experience in maintenance operations in Ligue 1, with ETG and Toulouse.
But David Guion remains a good coach and he can completely reverse the trend.
Players: (LIGHT) SAINT-ETIENNE ADVANTAGE
On the ground, this match of fear is tighter than on the bench, even if there too, the dynamic seems to be from Saint-Etienne.
The essential Wahbi Khazri has just made his comeback, and his doublet with Denis Bouanga (4 goals and 4 assists in the last 8 games) could well sparkle at the end of the season.
Even Mahdi Camara, in great difficulty until then, scored the first double of his career on Saturday against Brest (2-1), 11 days after being sanctioned by club management for a fight with a reserve team goalkeeper. .
Convincing reinforcement of the winter transfer window, Paul Bernardoni performed in this same key match, after additional time, THE parade which allowed the Greens to leave their place of play-off.
With a spine at this level,
For the Girondins, it's a shot yes, a shot no.
Despite the loss of Albert Elis (injured to the knee), David Guion may have found a good replacement formula with Javairo Dilrosun behind two attackers.
Only problem, Hwang will be suspended this Wednesday, and Mbaye Niang and Sekou Mara seem able to take over from the Honduran and the South Korean.
On the other hand, behind, it is always very complicated, between a Laurent Koscielny dismissed in January, a Benoît Costil on the sidelines, and winter recruits not at the level (Josuha Guilavogui and Marcelo).
Another difficulty for Bordeaux, the glaring absence of leaders.
The opinion of Didier Tholot: “Already, the two teams have the same problem, they concede a lot of goals (62 for Sainté, 77 for the Girondins).
I find the attacking potential of Bordeaux greater than that of Saint-Etienne and that can make the difference.
But where the Girondins have no consistency, the Greens seem to have a little more stability.
There are fewer lineup changes.
Afterwards, the maintenance, it is rarely played on the talent, and especially in the heads ".
The calendar: ADVANTAGE BORDEAUX
Even if it's always very subjective to compare two calendars, we're also here to get a little wet.
And like that, at first glance, the Girondins seem to have the advantage.
They will only play Nice as a big piece.
They therefore receive ASSE but also Lorient, and their three other opponents will surely not have much to play for in the coming weeks in L1, between Nantes, Angers and Brest.
For the Greens, we will be closer to the relief of the Massif Central than to the small Gironde bumps.
After this trip to Matmut Atlantique, Pascal Dupraz's players will go on to host Monaco, and trips to Rennes and Nice, only Top 6 teams. Before two last "more affordable" matches against Reims and Nantes.
Didier Tholot's opinion: “The calendar is clearly to Bordeaux's advantage.
Not necessarily over the six games, but because the Girondins will receive Saint-Etienne and Lorient, two direct competitors.
They have to make a difference in these matches if they want to save themselves.
For ASSE, it's more complicated with the triptych of Monaco, Rennes and Nice in particular”.
Supporters: ADVANTAGE SAINT-ETIENNE
The Bordeaux and Saint-Etienne supporters may be the best friends in the world (moreover the fans of the Greens have obtained authorization to make the trip from the prefecture of Gironde), they will not give each other gifts this Wednesday.
On the banks of the Garonne, the Ultramarines continue to push their players (or rather their club) despite the catastrophic sports results and extra-sports affairs.
Gérard Lopez, the owner and president of the Girondins, holds them.
Nearly 30,000 spectators are expected on Wednesday for what many consider to be the last chance match.
In the Forez, no one lets go either, far from it.
The Greens saw this in particular against Metz (1-0), on March 6, with a surprising influx of 35,607 spectators for “a rocking match”.
Even if they were significantly fewer last week against Brest (27.227), ASSE defender Eliaquim Mangala summarizes for
20 Minutes
the contribution of the 12th man: “It gave us a lot of positive energy to recover our supporters, and it is very complicated for our opponents to come to the Cauldron.
When we are welded like that with the public, we feel that nothing can happen to us”.
Only downside, the Green Angels are preparing to celebrate their 30th anniversary against Monaco on Saturday, and the odds for a Cauldron behind closed doors (at least for its south kop), during the 37th day in front of Reims, is 1.07 at given their passion for pyrotechnics.
But every detail could count in this final sprint.
The opinion of Didier Tholot: “Even if my heart is today in Bordeaux, I give the advantage to the Greens.
At the Girondins, there is a rift between the team and the supporters.
While in Saint-Etienne, there is more support and it is always very complicated to play Geoffroy-Guichard.
You just have to be careful that this fervor does not turn against them.
But ASSE has another small advantage, it's that the people there have already experienced this struggle for maintenance.
So in the end, who is the strongest, obviously it's the Greens?
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