Securities Times reporter An Zhongwen
The sell-off in copper, crude oil and palm oil prices is giving fund managers another way of thinking.
Due to the continuous decline of bulk commodities, QDII funds holding heavy positions in copper mines and crude oil suffered heavy losses in the short term. However, when the prices of these upstream raw material commodities plummeted, A-share fund managers began to investigate and deploy varieties that benefited from the falling cost of raw materials.
Crude oil QDII tumbles
Fund managers take a fancy to fine chemicals
As investors worried about slowing global economic growth, U.S. WTI crude oil fell 8.2% on July 5, falling below $100 a barrel, and Brent crude oil also plunged 9.5% that day.
The sharp drop in oil prices will significantly affect the net performance of domestic publicly offered crude oil QDII. Recently, crude oil QDII has been plagued by the downward trend in oil prices.
Although the last month has been the strongest time period for domestic A-share stock-oriented funds, the crude oil QDII under the public offering runs counter to the trend of domestic stock-biased funds.
Wind data shows that the top three decliners in the entire market in the past month were all covered by QDII funds with heavy positions in crude oil stocks.
As of July 4, the data show that the Huabao S&P Oil and Gas Fund, which is the largest decliner of the Huabao Fund, has fallen 22.57% in one month.
A public fund manager in southern China believes that if oil prices form a downward trend, it may transfer the benefits to the field of fine chemicals.
The fine chemical industry is between chemicals and consumer goods, and the drop in oil prices will improve the profitability of the fine chemical industry.
However, in the view of public QDII, oil prices may not have much room for downside.
Although the decline in oil prices has greatly dragged down the net performance of crude oil QDII, QDII fund managers who hold crude oil positions generally believe that the current decline in oil prices is a short-term trend.
Relevant persons from Lion Fund said that due to multiple factors such as investor concerns about the global economic recession and weak crude oil demand, oil prices fell.
However, the fundamentals of crude oil have not actually changed at present, and there is still a high degree of uncertainty on the supply side due to the influence of Russia. The recovery of economic activities in China and the arrival of the peak demand season in the northern hemisphere will also support crude oil demand. Without significant changes on the demand side, it is expected that the average price of crude oil will remain at a relatively high level throughout the year, and oil prices are expected to rise again after short-term adjustments.
Upstream copper fell
Star Fund looks downstream
The general decline in the commodity sector also includes copper mining stocks closely related to the new energy industry.
The Securities Times reporter noticed that the largest stock of the active QDII fund under a public fund in Shanghai is the Freeport McMoran Company, which is famous for producing copper and gold. In addition, the QDII holdings also include many Copper Mining Stocks.
Take Freeport-McMoRan as an example. Since June 7, the target has fallen by 37% in 18 trading days. Heavy-holding targets such as copper mining stocks have been selling continuously in recent times, making this Only the net value of QDII funds lost 18% in a month.
Industry insiders believe that the fund manager holds many copper mining stocks, which to a certain extent "gets on" the new energy market in an alternative way.
Copper is the mainstream conductive material in the current new energy industry chain, and it is used in wind power, photovoltaics, and electric vehicles. The research report of securities companies also emphasizes that the amount of copper used in electric vehicles is several times that of fuel vehicles and hybrid vehicles. Energy storage areas such as charging piles will also significantly increase the use of copper, which is the reason for fund managers to deploy copper.
At the end of June, Xingquan Fund and Chen Guangming's Ruiyuan Fund investigated Hailiang, a leading copper processing stock.
In response to the fund company's question, Hailiang shares said that the copper foil industry is actively expanding production, and it is expected that the new supply of the copper foil industry will be released in 2023 and 2024. The field of lithium battery materials occupies an important position.
It is worth noting that the fund manager's investigation of Hailiang, a copper foil supplier in the lithium battery field, may be due to his concern about the decline in the price of raw copper. The fund's research questions also point to copper prices and procurement costs.
Hailiang Co., Ltd. said that its copper foil business has a strong large-scale procurement advantage. The project is located along the China-Europe freight train and can obtain the guarantee of local and Central Asian copper resources in Gansu.
Baking companies are also welcome
Funds look to unlock flexibility
Even palm oil, which has fallen sharply recently, can be a "benefit" for fund managers.
Due to Indonesia's decision to increase palm oil exports, affected by the news, palm oil futures prices plummeted across the board on July 6, with major contracts hitting the daily limit.
Industry insiders believe that falling palm oil prices may benefit consumer stocks in the hands of fund managers. China's palm oil consumption is completely dependent on imports and is the world's second largest palm oil importer.
Previously, due to the continuous rise in palm oil prices, the performance of A-share bakery stocks was under pressure.
Peach and plum bread, an A-share company held by fund companies such as Harvest, Lion, and Southern, is greatly affected by fluctuations in palm oil prices. In the first quarter of this year, the company's performance increased revenue but not profit.
Ligao Foods, which is held by the China AMC Large Cap Fund, also had its performance affected by the sharp rise in the price of palm oil and other oils and fats. Its revenue in the first quarter increased by 8.83%, but its net profit fell sharply.
Also due to the consideration of controlling the raw material side, the bakery company announced at the end of June to deploy the raw material oil field, and to carry out the production and sales of edible vegetable oil, edible animal oil, and edible oil and fat products.
"The cost side of the baking industry is mainly palm oil and other oils and flours. Since the beginning of this year, the price of palm oil has risen a lot, which has eroded the profits of baking stocks." A fund manager in southern China said that baking companies belong to consumer stocks. If palm oil prices fall, it will improve the cost of these consumer stocks and increase the profit elasticity of listed bakery companies.
In response to the decline in palm oil prices since June, Nanqiao Foods, which is heavily owned by Wells Fargo Fund, said in response to investors' questions that the decline in raw material prices reflected a certain lag in the company's performance.
It is worth mentioning that, stimulated by the news of the sharp drop in palm oil futures, this fund's heavy-holding stocks showed obvious changes in intraday trading on July 6.