When will the 'Omicron fad' peak and when will stabilization come?

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Let's talk with medical reporter Cho Dong-chan.

[Cho Dong-chan / Medical reporter (specialist): If the number of virus-infected patients rises steeply, it comes down steeply.

Boston University in the United States analyzed that after Omicron becomes the dominant species, it takes 45 days to ascend and 45 days to descend.

France, the United Kingdom, and Canada also peak and descend at roughly the same rate.

The point was different.

According to this analysis, we can predict the peak around the first week of March since Omicron became dominant around January 20, and the stabilization point is 45 days after the peak, so it is probably April at the earliest.]

[Cho Dong-chan / Medical reporter (specialist): This is called the 'paradox of quarantine'.

In Korea and Germany, the number of confirmed cases is rising towards the peak, and Japan is near the peak.

What the three countries have in common is that they have a high vaccination rate and have used strong quarantine policies to prevent COVID-19 well.

There is also an analysis that only 1/10 of those in the United States or the United Kingdom acquire natural immunity from being infected with Corona, so there is an expectation that the period of the epidemic may be longer.]

[Cho Dong-chan / medical reporter (specialist): It is impossible to prevent Omicron with distance, and it is true that the effect of distance is low, but it is necessary to refer to other countries for the time of relief.

The time when many countries, such as the UK and Denmark, eased quarantine, was after the peak.

There are many arguments that it is safe for us to do the same.

On the other hand, there are opinions that it is too harsh for the self-employed and small business owners, so it should be resolved quickly.

The government is putting more weight on the gradual release rather than the quick one.]

[Cho Dong-chan / Medical reporter (specialist): Germany is going to the peak like us, and the number of confirmed cases per million people is twice our number, so I think it can be a bit of a reference.

The number of cases in green is seven times higher than in Delta.

However, blue is hospitalized, orange is critically ill, and black is the dead, which is slightly lower than in Delta.

We and Japan may be Asian characteristics, but the death toll is still lower than that of Germany, and it seems to be safe if it is done like the Delta case compared to the critically ill patients. Same.]

(Video editing: Kim Jin-won, CG: Lee Jong-jeong, Choi Ha-neul, Kang Kyung-rim, Park Cheon-woong)

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