The policy of guaranteeing the delivery of the property blows away the risk of the property market bubble


Zhang Jingwei

　　According to reports, the person in charge of the relevant departments of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said that the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission adhered to the positioning of "housing and not speculating", and continued to improve the long-term mechanism for real estate financial management around the goal of "stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and stabilizing expectations".

Reasonably meet the financing needs of the real estate market, and prudently handle the risks of some leading real estate enterprises such as Evergrande.

"The momentum of the real estate financialization bubble has been substantially reversed."

　　The epidemic has superimposed external market risks, and the real estate market has issued a warning.

From January to August, real estate development investment fell by 7.4%, 1.0 percentage points higher than that from January to July.

The decline in sales in the real estate market narrowed.

From January to August, the sales area of ​​commercial housing nationwide was 878.9 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.0%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that from January to July; the sales of commercial housing was 8,587 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.9%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points.

In this environment, not only the leading real estate companies such as Evergrande have capital chain problems, but some home buyers also reluctantly stopped lending, which caused market anxiety and even panic, and formed a risk resonance with the expected weakening of the macroeconomic environment.

The policy side, the market side and the people's livelihood are all worried that the property market risk will evolve into a systemic financial risk.

After all, the property market is a system that affects the whole body. It is not only closely related to macro policies, but also to the interests of the financial system and people's livelihood concerns.

　　The multi-cycle macro-control of the property market, under the goal of adhering to the goal of housing housing and not speculating, has been adhering to the balance of interests of all parties - not allowing the property market to have a hard landing.

Therefore, although the property market shows cyclical ups and downs, the risks of the property market are still controllable.

Even if the capital chain of individual real estate companies breaks, it will not hinder the overall situation of the real estate market, nor shake the stability of the financial system nor make home buyers anxious.

The risk changes in the property market this year not only involve the capital problems of housing companies, especially the leading housing companies, but also bring some impact to the financial system. The consumer-side risk of homebuyers stopping loans will form a negative risk ripple. , making the entire property market risk resonance superposition.

　　The central government's policy of ensuring property handover is not only an important measure to stabilize the economy, but also the key to stabilizing market players and people's livelihood.

Moreover, it is also a pragmatic move for the property market to adjust according to the time and situation, which not only highlights the keynote of the property market's grand tone, but also balances the concerns of all parties.

When the property market is stable, the market is stable, which also consolidates the foundation for stabilizing the economy and curbs the systemic financial risks of the transmission and spread of the property market.

　　The property market risk is still a funding issue, especially for residential projects that are expected to be difficult to deliver.

Through policy tools, financial support for housing enterprises and guarantee delivery of buildings can resolve risks.

On August 19, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China and other relevant departments introduced measures to support the construction and delivery of residential projects that have been sold overdue and difficult to deliver through special loans from policy banks.

It is understood that the initial scale of the special loan amounted to 200 billion yuan. On September 22, China Development Bank paid Shenyang City, Liaoning Province, the country's first "guaranteed building" special loan to support the Liaoning "guaranteed building" project.

In addition, various places have also introduced measures related to "guaranteing the handover of buildings", including strengthening the supervision of pre-sale funds, "one-to-one policy" and "one-to-one" assistance mechanisms, etc., to urge the handover of buildings.

Of course, all localities have also moderately relaxed their home purchase policies, resolved consumer anxiety, activated rigid demand and improved housing demand, cleared the obstruction of the property market, and opened up the capital cycle of the property market.

　　Some analysts believe that in order to achieve the goal of guaranteeing the handover of the building, the scale of the fund to guarantee the handover of the building should reach about 800 billion yuan.

Therefore, guaranteeing the property handover fund is a systematic project. In addition to the various measures that have been introduced by the central and local governments, it is necessary to continue to "transfusion" through special loans, and to provide more tools to the supply side and demand side of the property market through monetary policy. Inject funds at both ends.

Especially the latter, the liquidity released by the central bank's counter-cyclical interest rate cuts can give more financial support to the property market.

Of course, in addition to the "blood transfusion" injection of funds to ensure the delivery of buildings, various economic stabilization measures introduced by the central and local governments will also help stabilize macroeconomic expectations, resolve the anxiety of the whole market, and ease the anxiety of the property market, especially to change the consumer side. The wait-and-see mentality, activate the dormant property market consumption, and catalyze the property market's self-repairing "hematopoietic" function.

　　Although my country has a relatively high average housing rate, there is an imbalance among different cities.

Moreover, most cities also have rigid demand and improved housing groups. Now that housing prices in various places have fallen to relatively low levels, it is crucial to stimulate the housing demand of the two groups.

Moreover, the property market risks presented in this cycle also provide a rare opportunity to achieve the goal of housing without speculation, which not only helps to regulate the behavior of real estate companies, but also puts forward higher regulatory requirements for the financial system and market speculation.

The policy of guaranteeing the property handover will not only prevent systemic risks and disperse the bubble of the property market, but also contribute to the healthy and stable development of the property market.

　　More importantly, the policy of guaranteeing the property handover is not so much to save the market and support the market, but to say that it is for housing and not speculation.

In a big way, it is to disperse the property market bubble to prevent it from becoming a systemic financial risk, and to build a solid economic foundation; in a small way, it is also to prevent home buyers from shattering their dreams.