(Economic Observation) Three key words to observe the trend of the world economy under the epidemic

　　China News Service, Beijing, December 6

　　China News Agency reporter Liu Liang

　　The end of the year is approaching, in the face of this one after another new crown epidemic, where will the world economy go?

At the 18th International Finance Forum (IFF) Global Annual Meeting, the guests at the meeting looked forward to the world economic situation around the following three key words.

　　Keyword 1: Downside risk

　　At the moment, the world economy is facing many uncertainties. The recurrence of the epidemic and the recent emergence of the new crown mutant strain Omi Keron have once again brought new uncertainties to the global economic recovery, and the world economy continues to face downside risks.

　　Geeta Gopinat, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, pointed out that the downside risks of the world economy are very obvious.

"We see that the global recovery continues in 2021, but now we are encountering more and more contrarian trends, and there are also some very obvious faults. The latest global growth in 2021 is expected to be 5.9%, but in general we see When it comes to downside risks, this is true for this year and next year."

　　Jim O’Neill, the former chairman of the Royal Institute of International Affairs in the United Kingdom, believes that the events that have occurred in the past two years can be said to be quite dramatic, and the impact of the epidemic on the economy is significantly greater than that caused by the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Impact.

"In the past many days, we have tried to be more optimistic that the worst has passed, but at the moment when I speak, many countries in Europe are experiencing another wave of infection rates."

　　Keyword two: global inflation

　　IFF co-chairman and former Belgian Prime Minister Van Rompuy analyzed and pointed out that at present, inflation, as a "derivative" of the global epidemic, is growing all over the world.

He analyzed that supply-side shortages, labor market tensions, and consumers' retaliatory demand for goods and services are the reasons for the current round of inflation, but whether this inflation is temporary or non-temporary still needs to be explored.

　　Zhou Hanmin, vice chairman of the IFF and vice chairman of the Shanghai Municipal People’s Political Consultative Conference, pointed out that in this wave of inflation this year, domestic inflation rates in more than 80 countries around the world hit a 5-year high, and the global inflation level is predicted to reach 4.3%, a 10-year high.

He said that the degree of inflation is deep and rapid, and the time may be longer than expected, so it should not be too optimistic.

In addition, the world is also facing severe debt problems, with new global debt and the proportion of total global debt in GDP rising rapidly.

　　Jim O'Neill also admitted that although the world economy has recovered since the beginning of this year, the challenges posed by inflation are very serious.

"This year is coming to an end, and there are more and more signs that inflationary pressures exist in many parts of the world. No one is sure whether this inflationary pressure is temporary or permanent."

　　Keyword three: unbalanced recovery

　　Throughout the world, with the continuous promotion of the new crown vaccine, the world economy, which has encountered a rare historical "trough", has also begun to embark on the road of recovery as a whole.

However, a closer look shows that the uneven recovery is still on the road to economic recovery.

　　Gita pointed out that there are obvious differences in the rate of economic recovery among countries. Generally speaking, some countries have recovered fairly quickly, but some countries are still struggling to recover.

　　This divergence of economic recovery is more clearly reflected in developed and developing countries.

IFF Council Member and former Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek pointed out that the current vaccination rate in developed countries is significantly higher than that in developing countries. Although all countries live in the same global village, the vaccination rate and national economic Under the conditions of different strengths, the economic recovery of various countries is still unbalanced.

If the "vaccine gap" continues to widen, the difference in economic recovery between developed and developing countries will become even more significant.

　　Looking to the future, participants pointed out that developed and developing countries also have their own "difficult experiences".

On the one hand, after large-scale economic stimulus, if developed countries continue to adopt expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, they will exacerbate their own inflation problems.

On the other hand, in the face of the recent emergence of the mutant strain of the new crown virus, Omi Keron, the low vaccination rate in developing countries may once again cast a shadow over the economic recovery. At the same time, the inflation spillover effect in developed countries will also bring to developing countries. It's a lot of pressure.

(over)