Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, June 18, according to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, on the 18th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.4361, down 63 basis points.

Since this week (June 15-18), the central parity of the RMB against the U.S. dollar has been in a pattern of "four consecutive declines", with a cumulative decrease of 505 basis points.

This week, the central parity of the renminbi showed a pattern of "four consecutive declines"

　　　Source: China Foreign Exchange Trading Center

　　Specifically, on the 15th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.4070, a decrease of 214 basis points; on the 16th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.4078, a decrease of 8 basis points; on the 17th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.4298, a decrease of 220 basis points ; On the 18th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.4361, down 63 basis points.

　　In addition, on the 15th, the central bank launched a 200 billion 1-year mid-term lending facility (MLF) operation (including the renewal of the MLF maturity on June 15) and a 10 billion 7-day reverse repurchase operation. The winning interest rate was respectively 2.95%, 2.20%.

　　Zhou Maohua, an analyst at the Financial Markets Department of Everbright Bank, told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that recently, the RMB exchange rate has "depreciated" for several consecutive days, mainly due to abnormal fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, as well as higher-than-expected inflation in the United States. According to the interpretation, the US dollar has flipped too much, putting pressure on non-US currencies such as the renminbi in the short term; in fact, the domestic fundamentals have remained stable recently, and the overall economic data is in line with expectations.

　　Zhou Maohua also said that another important reason for the recent “devaluation” of the RMB against the U.S. dollar is that the exchange rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar has risen much earlier, and the pace of the recent callback has been a bit quicker. However, the recent trend of the RMB exchange rate shows that the market is calm and the market sentiment is stable. Two-way fluctuations are normalized; at the same time, the RMB exchange rate against a basket of trade-weighted currencies remains strong.

What is the impact of Fed policy on the renminbi?

　　The U.S. dollar index rose on the 17th. As of late New York trading, the U.S. dollar index, which measures the U.S. dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.79% to 91.8715.

　　Zhou Maohua believes that the US dollar index may appreciate moderately this year. The main reason is that the Fed’s statement this month is to pave the way for the policy shift (to fully communicate with the market), and the general direction is to “close water”; at the same time, the current US economy, inflation, and the Federal Reserve Policies are ahead of the euro zone, which is good for the dollar. However, as the current job market performance in the United States is still far from "substantial progress" for a long time, the Fed will continue to maintain a low interest rate accommodative financial environment.

　　Regarding the future trend of the renminbi, Zhou Maohua analyzed that the overall impact of the Fed’s policy on China is limited, and the renminbi is expected to maintain a stable pattern, mainly due to the steady recovery of the domestic economy, the economic structure tends to be reasonable and stable; the macro risks tend to converge, the wide spread between China and the United States and the The international balance of payments has maintained a fundamental balance, the RMB exchange rate has continued to increase its flexibility, and the foreign exchange market has significantly improved its ability to cope with and absorb the impact of uncertainties, and the RMB exchange rate has a solid foundation.

　　Zhou Maohua added that, just as there are not many unilateral stock markets, and there are fewer continuous unilateral movements and it is an "abnormal situation" (very stringent internal and external conditions need to be met), so don't expect the RMB to continue unilateral movements, two-way movements are the norm. .

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)