Chinanews client, Beijing, December 5th (Lang Lang) Will this winter be a cold winter?

Since the weather turned colder, netizens kept asking such questions.

　　In November, a cold air process affecting the whole country brought continuous rain to the south, and brought rain, snow, and freezing weather to the north, making the winter chill more prominent.

And the friends in the south are frequently searching for the explosive heating equipment.

　　So, how cold will it be this winter?

Is it the cold winter of online legends?

Data map: On November 29, citizens of Urumqi, Xinjiang traveled in snow.

Image source: Visual China

La Nina will make this winter colder?

　　If according to the World Meteorological Organization report, 2020 will become one of the warmest years on record, then the La Niña event can be regarded as a temporary warming "brake."

　　"By this winter, according to the current operational monitoring indicators, a La Niña event can be formed. Our preliminary judgment is a weak to moderate La Niña event." said Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of the National Climate Center.

　　The so-called "La Niña" phenomenon refers to the phenomenon that the sea surface temperature in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific continues to be abnormally cold. It is the inverse of the El Niño phenomenon, also known as the "anti-El Niño" or "cold event."

　　Beginning in August this year, the sea temperature in the Central and Eastern Pacific entered the La Niña state, and this state is still continuing.

According to previous forecasts by the China Meteorological Administration, the state of La Niña will reach its peak this winter and then begin to decline.

　　At a press conference held by the China Meteorological Administration on the 4th, Jia Xiaolong said that in general, in the winter of the peak of most La Niña years, the cold air that affects our country is more frequent, and this year is also the case; and this winter, the cold air affects our country through the northwest path. , The overall power is relatively strong.

Data map: On December 2, Lanzhou, Gansu ushered in snow, and citizens took pictures in the snow.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Yang Yanmin

The low temperature in the central and eastern regions of this winter is close to normal or low

　　Based on the formation of La Niña, many people believe that this winter will be colder than usual, and there are even sayings that this winter will be the coldest winter in 60 years.

　　For these claims, meteorological experts had already refuted the rumors and provided explanations as early as October.

　　In terms of this winter, Jia Xiaolong analyzed that in terms of the overall temperature trend in winter, in addition to Northeast China, eastern North China, and parts of Tibet, the overall temperature trend is higher than the same period in normal years. The temperature in most of the central and eastern regions is generally close to normal. On the low side, but the winter temperature fluctuates relatively large, the phase change characteristics are relatively obvious, and the cold and warm fluctuations are relatively large.

　　Especially around January next year, the cold air forces affecting our country will obviously become stronger.

There may be relatively strong ice and snow weather in the northern area, so take precautions.

Affected by La Nina in the south, the possibility of large-scale, continuous low-temperature rain and snow this winter is relatively small.

However, in the eastern part of the southwest region and the western part of Jiangnan, there will still be periodic rain and snow in winter.

　　Although the appearance of La Niña will have a certain impact on the winter temperature, it is still a bit difficult for it to make this winter into a cold winter by its own strength.

　　In the context of global warming, the relationship between the various climatic factors affecting our country is very complicated, and La Niña is only one of the important factors affecting our country’s winter climate.

According to Jia Xiaolong’s analysis, my country’s winter is not only affected by tropical oceans, but also cold air from high latitudes; and changes in atmospheric circulation in mid-high latitudes, including changes in sea ice and changes in snow cover, will affect the circulation system at mid-high latitudes. Have a clear impact.

　　Therefore, the prediction of the winter climate cannot simply rely on a certain phenomenon to draw conclusions, but the interaction between them must be considered from multiple aspects.

Data map: On December 4, affected by the cold air, the temperature in Kunming, the "Spring City", dropped sharply, and citizens traveled in thick winter clothes.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Liu Ranyang

There will be 5 cold air processes affecting my country in December

　　In November, many areas experienced the strongest rain and snow since the beginning of winter. Then, what is the climate in December?

Will there be "the strongest rain and snow"?

　　According to the latest prediction of the China Meteorological Administration, in December, the temperature in most parts of the central and western regions of my country was low, and the cold air processes affecting my country were mainly five times, slightly more than normal.

　　Especially in the next 10 days (December 5-14), the temperature will fluctuate in most parts of my country, and the average temperature will be lower than normal. The temperature in central and western Inner Mongolia and Guizhou will be 2~4℃ lower.

　　The southern region will also experience "seasonal" cooling this month.

From 12 to 14 days, there will be a strong cold air affecting the country from west to east. During this process, there will be a light rain in the south. There will be 4-6 northerly winds in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and most of the north, and the temperature will drop. 4~8℃, local cooling is above 10℃.

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