Erdogan and his advisors are well aware of the personality of the elected US president
The Turkish President is preparing for 4 difficult years during the Biden mandate
The relationship with Biden will not be comfortable.
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Trump provided protection to the Turkish president and overlooked his violations.
From The New Yorker
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As the world begins preparing for Joe Biden's move to the White House, a few leaders, such as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, are moving quickly, because the evidence indicates that it is expected that dealing with the situation in the next four years will be more difficult than the previous one.
Bloomberg News, in a report on what Turkey expects in the Biden era, stated that the Turkish president and his advisers are fully aware of the personality of the former US vice president, but this is not necessarily an advantage, given the ready-made US sanctions against Turkey, and has prevented them from being imposed so far by Donald Trump. Just.
By the time Biden left office in 2017, he had presided over a breakdown in relations with Turkey, from close partnership to mutual distrust.
In an interview with the "New York Times" published in January this year, Biden described Erdogan as a "tyrannical" person, and said that the United States should support the opponents of his ouster at the ballot box, adding: "He must pay the price." .
This price may be high. In addition to the threat of sanctions, severe sanctions will likely be imposed on a government Turkish bank, and there are also unresolved disputes over the status of Kurdish fighters in Syria, and Turkish naval demands in the Mediterranean Sea, and other regions, With regard to gas and oil exploration operations.
Bloomberg adds that concern about what may happen next may help explain the Turkish leader's decision to congratulate Biden and accept his victory, in contrast to other powerful leaders who have benefited from Trump's term, such as Brazilian Jair Bolsonaro or Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In a speech he gave on Saturday, Erdogan rejected the notion that Turkey's recent friendship with Russia was "an alternative to our long-established relations with America." The next day, he called for closer cooperation with Europe, which had been at odds with him for several months.
Turkey affairs advisor, Damian Murphy, told the prominent Democratic member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Bob Menendez, that Erdogan has been able to do what he likes over the course of four years, "mainly because he had a friend in the White House." All this will change from the United States ’point of view, when you have an administration that adopts a more responsible approach towards the region and towards Erdogan.
Prepare for the worst
It seems that Erdogan is preparing for the worst, as the Turkish parliament approved, on Thursday before last, legislation to return to Turkey Turkish energy and mining companies that were established abroad, and an official in the Turkish Energy Ministry described this step as a precaution, in anticipation of possible sanctions.
Erdogan's decision to purchase Russian-made S-400 air defense systems in 2019 is subject to sanctions adopted by the US Congress.
Former US National Security Adviser John Bolton said that Trump “does not want to punish Turkey, and this is quite clear.” He added that he accepts Erdogan's argument that the former US president, Barack Obama, prevented Turkey from buying Patriot missiles, so he had no choice but to buy S-400, this is nonsense.
Biden, who was Vice President Obama at the time of the talks on the Patriot system, is unlikely to embrace this line, and an amendment is working its way through Congress that, in any case, would force the president to choose at least five sanctions to impose on Turkey, From a list of 12 penalties.
The options range from symbolism, and the exclusion of sanctioned entities from all financial transactions, under the US jurisdiction, which paralyzes these entities.
lawsuit
Then there is a lawsuit against the Turkish state-owned Halkbank, which was charged last year with alleged fraud and money laundering charges amounting to $ 20 billion, with the aim of helping Iran evade US sanctions. In June, Trump forced the plaintiff General President in the case to resign.
Halkbank denied these accusations, and the case will be heard in court next March, that is, two months after Biden's inauguration.
"Bloomberg" reported that Turkish officials say that they see in Syria the most important potential challenge to Biden, who said during the election campaign that he preferred to keep American special forces there, and Trump had withdrawn some of them in 2019, and allowed Turkish forces to clear the border areas of Kurdish fighters. Whom it considers terrorists, but who are allies of the United States in the fight against ISIS.
There is no clear solution to some US-Turkish differences in sight, and there may be limits to the extent to which Erdogan can make concessions, even if he wants to take this step, and the ruling Justice and Development Party government in Turkey relies on a coalition with the Nationalist Movement Party. , Who is likely to resist making any concessions to the United States.
"We do not support Biden and we do not like Trump," said the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party, Devlet Bahçeli, in a recent speech, adding: "We are waiting ready in a state of caution and suspicion."
There is no clear solution to some US-Turkish differences in sight, and there may be limits to the extent to which Erdogan can make concessions, even if he wants to take this step.
Anxiety about what might happen next may help explain the Turkish leader's decision to congratulate Biden and accept his victory, in contrast to other powerful leaders who have benefited from Trump's term, such as Brazilian Jair Bolsonaro or Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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