Recently, multiple departments have successively released positive signals -
the stable development of the real estate market has a foundation
Since the second half of last year, under the influence of multiple factors, the real estate market has experienced a downward trend.
Since the beginning of this year, all parties have worked together to stabilize land prices, house prices, and expectations. The property market has shown a trend of stabilization and recovery, and the current market differentiation trend is obvious.
Recently, the Finance Committee of the State Council held a special meeting and proposed that, with regard to real estate enterprises, it is necessary to timely study and propose effective and effective response plans to prevent and defuse risks, and propose supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model.
Subsequently, the People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange and other departments also released positive signals one after another.
Experts believe that the remarks of the State Council Finance Committee and relevant departments and related measures to be introduced will play an important supporting role in stabilizing the expectations of the real estate market and promoting the stable and healthy development of the market.
Asymmetric recovery pattern emerges
Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released the sales price changes of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in February.
According to Sheng Guoqing, chief statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in first-tier cities rose month-on-month, while those in second- and third-tier cities were flat or down. decline.
Wang Ruimin, an associate researcher at the Institute of Market Economics of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the housing price data of 70 large and medium-sized cities in February showed signs of recovery in the overall market.
The real estate market in first-tier cities is the market vane across the country, and the recovery of first-tier cities is expected to gradually drive the stabilization of the real estate market in second- and third-tier cities.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute, believes that the market price in February showed a pattern of asymmetric recovery.
The price repair in first-tier cities exceeded that in second- and third-tier cities. The price index of second-hand housing in Beijing and Shanghai both increased month-on-month, Guangzhou stopped falling and turned up, and Shenzhen’s decline narrowed; second- and third-tier cities’ second-hand housing prices still fell month-on-month.
The average month-on-month decline of new house prices in 70 cities was slightly larger than that in January, mainly due to the lack of recovery of the property market in second- and third-tier cities.
Reasonable demand still to be released
The People's Bank of China recently released a statistical report on financial data for February, showing that medium and long-term loans to the household sector decreased by 45.9 billion yuan year-on-year.
Industry insiders generally believe that this reflects the low willingness of residents to purchase houses.
At the same time, it also shows that to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, it is still necessary to further release the reasonable housing demand.
Since the beginning of this year, many cities have introduced or adjusted specific control measures based on the actual situation in order to meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers.
Including relaxation of purchase restrictions, cancellation of "recognizing houses and subscribing for loans", reducing the ratio of down payment, increasing the amount of provident fund loans, giving house purchase subsidies, and providing support for talents to purchase houses, etc.
Wang Ruimin believes that the current real estate market risks have not been completely cleared, some companies are still in the process of bailout, the industry is still in a period of deep adjustment, and it will take time to restore market confidence.
Under the situation that the expectation of housing price rise in some cities has weakened, the "pseudo" demand for speculative house purchases has quickly withdrawn, and the rigid demand group has turned to "wait and see", and the sales volume has contracted.
Policy warm air is needed to help restore market confidence and avoid the risk of a hard landing in the real estate market.
Xu Xiaole believes that the housing demand in first-tier cities is relatively sufficient, and with the support of credit, the market is expected to repair quickly; while the demand for housing in second- and third-tier cities is relatively insufficient.
Although policies such as lowering the down payment, lowering the threshold for settlement, and issuing housing subsidies have mainly been concentrated in second- and third-tier cities this year, it will take some time for the policies to take effect, and the release of housing demand should be further effectively stimulated.
In addition, demand-side confidence has not yet fully recovered.
The repeated epidemics in some cities since March have also brought uncertainty to the market.
Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the real estate market has undergone positive changes and the downward trend has been slowed down.
Judging from the real estate production index, the real estate production index in the first two months fell year-on-year, but the decline was narrowing.
The "Government Work Report" proposes to adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers. "We believe that the stable development of the real estate market still has foundations and conditions." .
Policies warm air to help market expectations stabilize
Recently, a number of departments have expressed their views on the operation of the real estate market.
The central bank said, "prevent and resolve real estate market risks"; the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said, "actively promote the transformation of the real estate industry's development mode, encourage institutions to carry out M&A loans in a stable and orderly manner, and focus on supporting high-quality housing companies to merge and acquire difficult housing companies. High-quality projects"; the China Securities Regulatory Commission said , "actively cooperate with relevant departments to effectively and effectively resolve the risks of real estate enterprises"; the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said, "cooperate with relevant departments to promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market".
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Union Finance, believes that in the future, real estate financial policies should be further adjusted and optimized to meet the normal financing needs of real estate companies and reasonable housing consumption needs.
At present, when liquidity is relatively abundant and capital costs are falling, local governments and financial institutions should be supported to adjust real estate financial policies, especially housing credit policies.
More importantly, it is necessary to further explore new development models of real estate, adhere to both rental and purchase, accelerate the development of the long-term rental market, and promote the construction of affordable housing.
Financial institutions should take this opportunity to speed up the optimization of the real estate financial business structure, develop and innovate products and services for the housing rental market, and increase support and services for the housing rental market.
Xu Xiaole believes that to resolve the risks of housing companies, the government, housing companies, and financial institutions need to work together to reallocate funds and resources in the industry. Conditions should also be created for some housing companies to exit or transform in an orderly manner.
A few days ago, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance said in response to the media's questions about the real estate tax reform pilot, "The real estate tax reform pilot is carried out in accordance with the authorization of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress. However, there are no conditions for expanding the pilot cities for real estate tax reform within this year.”
Industry insiders believe that the plans and nodes for the expansion of the real estate tax pilot program in the market adjustment stage have attracted widespread attention, and the Ministry of Finance's statement has a very positive effect on stabilizing market expectations.
Our reporter Kang Shu