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The Foundation for Applied Economics Studies (Fedea) returns to shed light on the real situation of the coronavirus in Spain and the management of the pandemic in Spain. According to studies published on Tuesday, the number of deaths in Spain, as of April 26, was 34,393 people, " 46.2% higher than the official figure " offered by the Government. And the data of infected, he adds, already reaches 1.2 million people.

In "the evolution of the official lethality collected by the Ministry of Health and the series calculated in this work of deaths by Covid-19, it can be verified that the difference between these two series is especially relevant in the central period of the epidemic between the half of the months of March and April 2020 , where there are problems in the accounting possibly derived, as noted, from the saturation of the health system, "the text states.

"The results point to that on April 26, 2020, the infection would have affected 1.23 million Spaniards, which represents 2.6% of the population. It is expected that at the end of this outbreak the amount will reach 1, 30 million , which would represent 2.8% of the country's population, "states the working document prepared by David Martín Barroso and Francisco J. Velázquez, from the Complutense University of Madrid and Juan A. Núñez Serrano and Jaime Turrión from the Autonomous University of Madrid.

However, the intensity of the infection "has a marked pattern by age as it increases markedly in the older age groups," the document points out. "Thus, for the 70 to 79-year-old group, an infection rate of 5.5% is estimated today, figures that rise to 9.9% in the case of people between 80 and 89 years old, almost 20% for those over the age of 90. " Consequently, these figures would be showing the strong incidence of this pandemic in the older age groups, " the document concludes.

Increased lethality

As a direct consequence of this, the document continues, the case fatality rate in Spain reaches 3.1%, a figure much higher than that of other countries with a younger population. " This value is clearly above the estimates available for countries younger , who number it around 0.66%, as a consequence of the aging of our population and the high intensity of infection among older people, "notes the text, which also points to data such as 0.7 % that China presents.

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