Chinanews client, Beijing, September 15th (Peng Jingru) In August, the overall price increase in 70 cities accelerated!
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 14th showed that in August, the real estate market in 70 large and medium-sized cities was generally stable, with prices rising slightly.
The month-on-month increase in the price of new houses in all tier cities has slightly expanded; except for the decline in second-tier cities, the month-on-month increase in prices of second-hand houses has expanded in both first- and third-tier cities.
The National Bureau of Statistics released the sales price index of newly built commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in August 2020.
From July to August, many cities such as Hangzhou, Dongguan, Ningbo, Shenzhen, and Nanjing continued to tighten property market regulation, and some cities’ policies even continued to increase.
But why are house prices still rising?
Many people in the industry expressed their views to Chinanews.
Is policy regulation effective?
--effective
Yan Yuejin, Research Director of Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute:
In August, the month-on-month increase in new house prices has expanded, which is related to the urban structure.
However, it can also be seen that among the 70 cities, the number of cities where housing prices have fallen has increased, from 6 in July to 9 in August, indicating that more cities have joined the ranks of price reductions.
The first, second, and third-tier cities’ August new house prices increased by 0.6%, 0.5%, and 0.6% respectively. The first-tier and third-tier cities increased slightly, while the second-tier cities were relatively stable because the focus of this round of regulation is on the second-tier cities. , The tightening of policies has brought about a cooling of housing prices.
Second-tier cities did not increase the month-on-month increase in second-hand housing, which is also related to this round of regulation and control around second-tier cities.
Many places have tightened control over the order of real estate transactions, making market expectations more stable and housing prices trending more stable.
Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute:
From the perspective of house prices in August, the decline in the national market has been reflected, but the rising trend of house prices in first-tier cities continues.
Among the first-tier cities, the improved demand in Beijing and Shanghai showed obvious performance in August. For example, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai exceeded 30,000, and the concentrated online transactions of new houses in mid-to-high-end projects also boosted the momentum of house prices.
After Shenzhen introduced a series of control policies, although housing prices still rose month-on-month in August, the actual increase was the weakest among first-tier cities.
Data map: real estate.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
Why are house prices still rising?
-Policy tightening is not strong
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property:
Compared with the regulation policy in the first half of the year, which focused on talent policies, and the phenomenon of "one-day trips" in some cities, the real estate regulation and control took a turning point from July to August. From the comprehensive easing in the first half of the year, a tightening trend began.
The cumulative number of times in a single month in August was 32, which was the same as that in July. More than 10 cities including Hangzhou, Dongguan, Ningbo, Zhengzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Changchun, and Haikou introduced regulatory policies to cool the property market.
At present, the control policies implemented in various regions have not yet restrained the market from heating up.
Most of the recent tightening policies in more than 10 cities are aimed at increasing the control of fake divorces, fake settlements, and fake talents who purchase multiple houses. The additional control measures in some cities are only for tightening the provident fund policy. The control policies of most cities are strong. Not much, and the impact on the market has not yet appeared in August.
Data map: Real estate consultants explain to viewers.
Photo by Zhu Xiaoying
Why do cities such as Guangzhou, Chengdu and Yinchuan lead the rise?
——Due to rising market demand
Xu Xiaole, Chief Market Analyst, Shell Research Institute:
Among the first-tier cities, Guangzhou's second-hand residential sales prices continued to rank first in the 70 cities in recent two months, with an increase of more than 1.5%.
In the first eight months, Guangzhou's second-hand residential transaction volume exceeded that of the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth of 5%, which was faster than that of Beijing and Shanghai.
The resilience of the second-hand housing market demand in Guangzhou and the higher market expectations have led to a more prominent price performance in the past two months. The proportion of price increases in the price adjustments of second-hand housing owners has also continued to rise, reaching 24% in August.
The resilience of demand in the second-hand housing market in Guangzhou is mainly due to the continued decline in the average price of second-hand housing since the second half of last year and the lowering of the threshold for entry into the market. At the same time, since July, Shenzhen’s regulatory policies have also increased the demand for Guangzhou.
Among the second-tier cities, Chengdu's second-hand housing price index rose the most, which was also caused by rising market demand.
Among the third- and fourth-tier cities, Yinchuan, Tangshan, and Huizhou have ranked among the top 70 cities in the price increase of new houses several times in recent months. Caused by secondary market conduction.
Zhao Jinxin, macro analyst at China Minbank Think Tank:
Entering August, various localities have implemented "patching" operations on the previous policies, and the accuracy of the policies has improved, and the effect of guiding the steady development of the market has begun to show.
However, a small number of overheated cities have problems with inadequate regulation and delay. For example, Yinchuan City, driven by factors such as high land prices, has been among the highest in the country for consecutive months of growth.
The new round of regulation is expected to increase and upgrade, and restraining the market from overheating will become a phased feature of the regulation policy.
At the end of August, the Yinchuan Municipal Housing and Urban-rural Development Bureau has issued regulatory policies to restrict the behavior of market entities and guide the healthy development of the market. The effect of the policy remains to be seen.
Data map: A certain real estate project attracts many buyers to come to "buy houses".
Photo by Tang Yanjun issued by China News Agency
Will house prices continue to rise? Regulation will be upgraded?
-Over 30 cities may tighten policies
Xu Xiaole, Chief Market Analyst, Shell Research Institute:
Since the second half of the year, more than 10 cities across the country have introduced real estate regulation. Policies have made efforts to keep the real estate market running smoothly from both ends of supply and demand. While restraining investment demand, it also focuses on protecting the release of reasonable self-occupation demand.
In the short term, cities where housing prices have risen rapidly cannot rule out the introduction of regulatory overweighting policies.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property:
From July to August, there were many cities with active property market, especially Shenzhen, Dongguan, Ningbo, Nanjing, Chengdu, Hangzhou and other cities showed a significant recovery.
The Wuhan market, which is the most noteworthy, also showed obvious stabilization, with a significant increase from the previous month.
From the perspective of housing price expectations, the number of visitors in most cities has increased significantly compared to before, and housing prices have shown an upward trend.
The "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" prices continue to rise, but the tightening and tightening control policies are expected to stabilize the market.
In terms of policy, the shift from one city, one policy to the supervision of ministries and commissions, and restraining the market from overheating have become a new feature of regulatory policies.
Tightening of regulation is inevitable, and it is expected that at least more than 30 cities will issue policies with different strengths in real estate tightening in the future.
Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute:
The Confidence Index of Anjuke Homebuyers in August was 111.7, an increase of 1.9% from the previous month. This shows that buyers are still optimistic about the market outlook. As long as purchase restrictions and differentiated credit policies remain unchanged, the regulation and control of cities with high housing market will continue to tighten. The overall stability of housing prices will not change.
It is worth noting that due to the recent regulatory increase in the financial side of the "three red lines" of the debt control of real estate companies, the phenomenon of open or secret discounts by real estate companies in the real estate market is expected to increase in September. While driving the increase in sales, or Play a certain pull down on housing prices.
Do you reserve funds to buy a house during the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" period?
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