The official intensive shots of steam coal futures prices are approaching, "coal is crazy", isn't it crazy?

　　Sino-Singapore Jingwei, October 28. In the overnight domestic commodity futures market, as of the close of the night trading, thermal coal had a 13% limit, and the price was 1033.8 yuan/ton, which was 47.84% lower than the historical high of 1982.0 yuan/ton.

This is the seventh consecutive trading day that thermal coal futures have fallen after several official attempts to curb "coal hyper-crazy" since October 19th.

　　Not only that, coking coal and coke both fell to the limit, and as of the close of the night trading, they were quoted at 2503.0 yuan/ton and 3201.0 yuan/ton respectively.

　　On the morning of the 28th, steam coal, coking coal, and coke continued their lower limit at the opening.

　　Source of recent price trends of thermal coal futures: Wind

　　Recently, coal prices have skyrocketed, and the black line in the futures market has risen accordingly.

In order to crack down on coal price speculation and curb "coal madness", the National Development and Reform Commission and others have successively made moves.

　　On October 27, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission held consecutive meetings to focus on discussing the reasonable price range and profit margin that should be maintained to promote the coordinated and sustainable development of the coal industry and downstream power industries

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　　On the same day, the Price Department convened a meeting of the China Coal Industry Association and some key coal companies to study specific measures to intervene in coal prices, including specific issues such as the scope of intervention, intervention methods, price levels, implementation time, and safeguard measures.

The National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will pay close attention to changes in the coal market and prices,

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　　On the evening of the same day, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it had formed 4 joint inspection teams with the State Administration of Market Supervision to go to the main coal producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, and Qinhuangdao Port and other major northern coal ports to conduct special inspections on coal spot market prices and urge relevant markets. Subjects operate in compliance with laws and regulations; conduct interviews with regions and companies that have not strictly implemented the requirements for coal supply and price stabilization, and severely crack down on illegal activities such as fabricating, spreading price increase information, hoarding, driving up prices, and price collusion.

　　On October 26, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it is studying the establishment of a standardized coal market price formation mechanism in accordance with the "Price Law" and the prohibition of profiteering and other relevant laws and regulations to guide coal prices to stabilize in a reasonable range for a long time.

　　On October 25, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will strengthen the credit supervision of the performance of medium and long-term coal supply contracts in accordance with the law, urge contracted market entities to strictly perform contractual obligations, and include untrustworthy records and implement key supervision for market entities that do not strictly perform. Market entities that seriously violate the law and dishonesty will be publicly exposed and punished in accordance with the law.

　　On the same day, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed that all coal price index compilation and release units with national influence in the country should initiate price index behavior evaluation and compliance review.

For violations found in the assessment and compliance review, disciplinary measures such as interviews, public exposure, rectification within a time limit, suspension of publication, and inclusion on the untrustworthy list will be taken in accordance with the regulations.

　　On October 24, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that on the basis of organizing local cost surveys of coal production and circulation enterprises, it has formed multiple investigation teams together with the price and cost investigation center to conduct on-site investigations on key coal production and circulation enterprises in relevant provinces. , To provide a basis for determining a reasonable range of coal prices and preventing coal companies from making huge profits.

　　Earlier on the morning of October 22, the National Development and Reform Commission convened a meeting of the China Coal Industry Association and some key coal companies to study specific policies and measures to stop coal companies from making huge profits and ensure long-term stability of coal prices in a reasonable range.

On October 21, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Price Law, in order to strengthen the supervision of coal market prices, the National Development and Reform Commission organized local development and reform commissions, key coal production companies, trading companies and coal-using companies to conduct special surveys on coal production and circulation costs and prices. , Learn more about the cost and sales price of coal production companies, the purchase and sales prices of coal by trading companies, coal circulation costs, and the purchase prices of coal-using companies.

　　The National Standing Committee held on October 20 emphasized the need to ensure heating in the northern region, especially the Northeast, in winter; make every effort to ensure the production and transportation of coal for heating; and crack down on coal market speculation in accordance with the law.

　　On the same day, the National Development and Reform Commission organized trips to Hebei’s Qinhuangdao Port and Caofeidian Port to supervise coal supply and price stabilization work, requiring resolute curb and regulation of hoarding and speculation in accordance with laws and regulations to ensure safe and stable supply of energy and power in this winter and next spring, and in Hebi Park, Henan Coal Storage and Distribution Trading Center The survey emphasized severely cracking down on behaviors in the coal spot market to drive up prices and disrupt the order of the market economy.

　　On October 19th, the National Development and Reform Commission spoke out three times in a row against "coal super madness".

　　In the afternoon of the same day, the National Development and Reform Commission organized key coal companies, China Coal Industry Association, and China Electricity Council to hold a coal seminar on the energy supply mechanism for this winter and next spring to study the implementation of intervention measures on coal prices in accordance with the law.

The National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will make full use of all necessary means stipulated in the "Price Law" to study specific measures to intervene in coal prices, promote the return of coal prices to a reasonable range, promote the return of the coal market to rationality, and ensure safe and stable energy supply.

　　At the same time, the responsible comrades of the National Development and Reform Commission presided over a symposium on key coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation companies to ensure supply and price stabilization, clarifying that all localities must maintain normal coal production during holidays and major events. It is strictly forbidden to shut down coal mines at will, and it is strictly forbidden to “one size fits all” accidents in individual coal mines. Stop production of coal mines regionally to ensure that coal mines can produce full production under safe conditions, and strive to achieve a daily output of more than 12 million tons of coal.

　　The chief responsible comrades of the Department of Finance and Finance of the National Development and Reform Commission led a team to the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange for research and held a special symposium.

The meeting pointed out that relevant departments are currently making every effort to increase coal production and supply. ZCE must pay close attention to the price fluctuations of thermal coal futures, focus on strengthening the penetrating supervision of the futures market, sort out abnormal transactions, and strictly investigate and punish malicious capital speculation in accordance with the law and publicly expose it. Effectively maintain market order and create a good capital market environment for coal supply.

　　In addition to the National Development and Reform Commission, on the evening of October 19, ZCE issued a notice stating that the price limit of thermal coal futures contracts was adjusted to 10% starting from the night trading on the evening of October 20.

Another notice stated that since the night trading on the night of October 20, non-futures company members or customers have the largest number of single-day open trades on thermal coal futures contracts 2204, 2205, 2206, 2207, 2208, 2209 and 2210 The quantity is 100 lots.

　　In addition, on the evening of October 20, the Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange issued another announcement, starting from the night trading on the evening of October 21, thermal coal futures 2111, 2112, 2201, 2202, 2203, 2204, 2205, 2206, 2207, 2208, The transaction fee standard for 2209 and 2210 contracts is adjusted to 90 yuan per lot, and the transaction fee standard for intraday closing of Imakura is adjusted to 90 yuan per lot.

　　In the evening of the same day, the China Securities Regulatory Commission answered questions about the response to the excessively rapid rise in thermal coal prices.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission pointed out that in order to further serve to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities and strengthen the supervision of the futures market, the China Securities Regulatory Commission will take proactive measures and take multiple measures to guide exchanges to increase handling fee standards, tighten transaction limits, and conduct research and implementation to expand the scope of delivery products. A number of other measures have resolutely curbed excessive speculation and put an end to malicious capital speculation.

At the same time, maintain a high-pressure posture of zero tolerance for violations of laws and regulations in the futures market, increase crackdowns on violations such as manipulation, and maintain a good market order.

　　In addition, on October 21, the Mid-term Association organized the analyst and research and development committee to hold a special video conference.

The meeting made it clear that intervening in coal prices in accordance with the law and promoting the return of the market to rationality are important measures related to the national economy and people's livelihood and ensuring energy security.

　　Regarding thermal coal futures, Hongye Futures analysis believes that in terms of production areas, the price of coal at pits in Shaanxi and Mongolia has been significantly reduced, and the supply has increased under the policy of guaranteeing supply. Significantly down, traders have increased their willingness to ship shipments, mainly relying on long-term guarantees for supply, with fewer market transactions; on the disk, the main contract continued to close down after the limit on the previous trading day, and the panic was spreading, and the decline continued. , The current volatility is relatively large, and the risk of holding positions is relatively high. Wait and see for the time being.

　　In terms of double coke, Bank of China International Futures said that in the next few months, the high coal price and coke price are still expected to fluctuate until the end of the year.

It is recommended that short-term bearishness is still the main aspect, and it is recommended that Weicang short rallies.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The opinions in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)