Zhongxin Finance, February 16 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) Driven by the expansion of pork prices, the year-on-year increase in the national consumer price (CPI) fell significantly in January.
Experts predict that the CPI may maintain a moderate upward trend in 2022.
CPI rise and fall chart.
from the National Bureau of Statistics
Year-on-year CPI growth eased in January
According to Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, "In January, the CPI increased by 0.9% year-on-year, and the increase was 0.6 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. Among them, food prices fell by 3.8%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, which affected the decline of the CPI. About 0.72 percentage points."
In food, due to the high base in the same period last year, the price of pork fell by 41.6%, and the decline expanded by 4.9 percentage points, affecting the CPI to drop by about 0.96 percentage points; the price of fresh vegetables changed from an increase of 10.6% in the previous month to a decrease of 4.1%; fresh fruits and aquatic products. Prices rose by 9.9% and 8.8%, respectively, extending the gains.
In addition, non-food prices rose by 2.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase of about 1.64 percentage points.
Among the non-food items, the prices of industrial consumer goods rose by 2.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, of which the prices of gasoline and diesel rose by 20.7% and 22.7% respectively, and the increase was both lower than that of the previous month.
"According to estimates, in the 0.9% year-on-year increase in January, the impact of last year's price changes was about 0.5 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about 0.4 percentage points. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 1.2% year-on-year. The increase is the same as last month." Dong Lijuan said.
The pork section in a large supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing.
Photo by China News Service reporter Xie Yiguan
Pork prices drop month-on-month
From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI increased by 0.4% from a decrease of 0.3% in the previous month.
Among them, food prices changed from a decrease of 0.6% in the previous month to an increase of 1.4%, affecting the CPI increase of about 0.26 percentage points.
"In terms of food, affected by the festival, the prices of fresh fruit, aquatic products and fresh vegetables rose by 7.2%, 4.1% and 3.1% respectively; the winter seasoning was basically over, coupled with the accelerated release of live pigs before the festival, the supply of pork was sufficient, and the price fell by 2.5%. " Dong Lijuan pointed out.
A reporter from Zhongxin Finance visited a supermarket in Beijing at the end of January and found that the front and rear butt tips were 14.8 yuan per pound, and the pork belly was 18.8 yuan per pound. Compared with the end of November, the prices of the front and rear butt tips have dropped.
It is worth noting that, affected by the rise in international energy prices, the prices of gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas rose by 2.2%, 2.4% and 1.5% month-on-month respectively in January.
Entering 2022, international crude oil prices will continue to rise.
Data show that on February 14, the main contract price of WTI crude oil futures exceeded 95 US dollars / barrel, and the main contract price of Brent crude oil futures exceeded 96 US dollars / barrel, both hitting new highs since October 2014.
Data map: Citizens are shopping for vegetables in a large supermarket in Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhai Yujia
CPI is expected to continue its moderate upward trend in 2022
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on February 7, the “200 Index of Agricultural Products Wholesale Prices” was 137.08, down 1.59 points from the pre-holiday period (January 30).
As of 14:00 on the 7th, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 22.38 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.4% compared with that before the festival; the average price of 28 kinds of vegetables under key monitoring was 5.86 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.8% compared with that before the festival. The average price of the 6 kinds of fruits monitored was 6.95 yuan/kg, down 0.1% from that before the festival.
"Looking forward to the price situation in 2022, it is expected that the CPI will rise slightly, and the annual increase may be higher than that in 2021, but the overall increase will be less than 3%, and there will be no inflationary pressure." Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, said.
Liu Zhicheng, a researcher at the Market and Price Research Institute of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, pointed out that in 2022, the impact of the exogenous epidemic may gradually weaken, and the price movement is expected to depend more on endogenous factors in the economy.
From a domestic perspective, my country's economy continues to recover and develop, the supply of industrial and agricultural products and services is abundant, the supply of important livelihood commodities such as grain, oil, meat, eggs, milk, fruits and vegetables is sufficient, and basic energy sources such as coal, oil and gas are guaranteed, and the ability to effectively respond to abnormal market price fluctuations has been significantly enhanced.
"Comprehensive research and judgment, my country's prices will maintain a solid foundation in 2022. It is expected that the CPI will continue to rise moderately, the PPI increase may gradually fall, and the upstream and downstream price trends will become more coordinated." Liu Zhicheng said.
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