The amount of water and electricity delivered is the first in the country. Why is this big province still short of electricity?

　　China-Singapore Jingwei, August 16th (Xue Yufei, Deng Zhiruo) In most people's impressions, Sichuan Province, with many rivers, is very rich in water resources. The power generation capacity of well-known hydropower stations such as Baihetan, Xiluodu, and Xiangjiaba are very considerable.

However, in the face of the continuous high temperature weather since the summer of this year, Sichuan's power shortage has increased, and industrial enterprises have to be restricted.

　　Statistics show that the installed capacity of hydropower in Sichuan has exceeded 90 million kWh this year, making it the largest hydropower province in the country.

Why is there a shortage of electricity in major hydropower provinces?

Since there is no electricity, why do you still need to deliver?

How to solve the power gap?

Three "most" superimposed industrial enterprises are limited by electricity

　　According to the General Office of the Sichuan Provincial Government, on August 9, Sichuan Province held the 17th meeting of the coordination mechanism for thermal coal and electricity supply. The load hit a record high six times in a row, reaching a maximum of 5,910 kWh, and the power supply was under enormous pressure.

electricity load is expected to exceed 60 million kWh. In addition, the upstream precipitation has dropped by about 40% compared with previous years, and there is still insufficient coal transportation capacity from other provinces to enter Sichuan.

　　According to the State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Media Center, there will be peak power load in summer, and the most important reason is due to the influence of the cooling load of air conditioners.

According to estimates, the cooling load of air conditioners in Sichuan in summer is nearly 18 million kilowatts, which is equivalent to more than 16 million air conditioners with 1.5 hp running at the same time, which exceeds 1/3 of the electricity load in the province.

　　In the face of the shortage of power supply, the media reported that on August 14, the Economic Information Department of Sichuan Province and the State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company issued the "Emergency Notice on Expanding the Implementation Scope of Industrial Enterprises to Provide Electricity to the People" (hereinafter referred to as the notice).

The notice stated that after research and decision, from August 15th, the active staggered peak avoidance demand response will be cancelled, and the implementation scope of industrial enterprises to provide electricity to the people will be expanded in 19 cities (prefectures) in the province (except Panzhihua and Liangshan). All industrial power users in the orderly power consumption plan (including whitelisted key security enterprises) will stop production (except for security loads), take a high temperature holiday, and let electricity be used by the people, from August 15th to August 20th.

　　On August 15th, the power supply guarantee and dispatch meeting held in Sichuan predicted that the province's largest electricity load would increase by 25% compared with the same period last year. At present, Sichuan has launched three-level power supply control measures to fully protect people's livelihood.

Affected by this, on the evening of the 15th, a number of listed companies, including Sichuan Meifeng, Haowu, Lutianhua, Guoguang, and Zhongfu Industrial, disclosed the news of temporary production suspension.

To the outside world, as a major hydropower province, Sichuan is very rich in water resources. According to data, the technologically developed water resources in this province are about 148 million kilowatts, accounting for 21.2% of the national total.

According to an article published on the WeChat public account of the State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company in November 2021, as of October 2021, the installed power capacity of Sichuan Province has exceeded 100 million kilowatts, of which 85.9679 million kilowatts of hydropower.

With such a large-scale installed power capacity, coupled with the high water season in summer, why is there still a lack of electricity in Sichuan?

　　In this regard, the relevant person in charge of the State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company introduced that starting from August 7 this year, Sichuan ushered in the most severe high temperature and drought severe weather since meteorological records. It is expected to continue for about a week, facing the highest historical Extreme high temperature, the minimum precipitation in the same period in history, and the highest power load in the same period in history are the three "most" superimposed situations.

The above-mentioned relevant person in charge also said that from a national perspective, all power channels into Sichuan are currently operating at full capacity, and it is more difficult to organize power support outside the province; Each city (prefecture) was severely affected. In July, the inflow of hydropower was 40% dry. Since August, the inflow of hydropower has been dry by 50%. The daily power generation of hydropower has dropped significantly, and the power supply support capacity has dropped sharply. From the perspective of supply and demand, the continuous high temperature has led to cooling. The load surged, the superimposed water and electricity supply was severely dry, and the power supply and demand situation was tense.

　　The website of the Sichuan Provincial Department of Water Resources released news on the 15th that in the next week, the main rivers in Sichuan Province will have less water. The continuous and prolonged high temperature and drought will lead to a surge in the demand for water and electricity. The reservoir and hydropower station are seriously insufficient in water storage. high pressure.

From "abundance and shortage" to "abundance and shortage"

　　In addition to short-term factors such as continuous high temperature weather, difficulty in dispatching from other provinces, and less water supply affecting power generation, there is also an important long-term factor that Sichuan has to undertake the task of "transmitting electricity from west to east".

　　The aforementioned article of State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company stated that Sichuan is an important sending end of the "West-to-East Power Transmission", with an annual output of more than 130 billion kWh, ranking first in the country.

According to a report by Sichuan Daily in July this year, since the first Sichuan power transmission was completed in 1998, Sichuan has built the country's largest and most complex provincial-level power grid, with a total of more than 1.3 trillion kilowatt-hours of clean energy sent to the outside world. , equivalent to the annual power generation of 13 Three Gorges Hydropower Stations.

By the end of 2021, Sichuan's hydropower output has exceeded 130 billion kWh for five consecutive years, accounting for about 1/3 of its own hydropower generation.

Sino-Singapore Jingwei inquired on the website of the National Bureau of Statistics and learned that in 2021, the power generation of Sichuan Province will be 453.033 billion kWh, and the power consumption will be 327.5 billion kWh.

In 2021, Sichuan's full-caliber hydropower output will be 136.8 billion kWh.

Since Sichuan is short of electricity this summer, can the electricity delivered to the outside world be converted to consumption within the province?

State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company stated in the aforementioned article: “As a national hydropower base, in accordance with the national strategy of 'transmitting electricity from west to east', large-scale cascade power stations such as Xiangjiaba, Xiluodu and Jinping are all developed and consumed by the state as a whole. Its electricity is distributed nationwide, and there is a fixed distribution ratio within and outside the province. It is not Sichuan’s priority to consume, and excess electricity is sent out.”

　　From a longer-term perspective, economic growth will increase power consumption.

According to the "2021 Sichuan Electric Power Market Operation Report" compiled by the Sichuan Electric Power Trading Center, the economy and society of Sichuan Province has entered a new round of rapid development, and the demand for electricity will rise steadily in the next few years. Shortage" accelerates the transition to "both abundance and dryness".

In 2020, Tan Hongen, chairman of State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company, said in an interview with the media that with the implementation of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle strategy, the Chengdu-Chongqing area will become the "fourth pole" driving economic growth. The electricity load in the province, especially in Chengdu, will continue to grow rapidly.

It is initially estimated that the largest power supply gap in Chengdu will reach 5 million kilowatts in 2025.

Local energy resources in Chongqing are limited. After the integrated development of the Sichuan-Chongqing power grid, more power sources need to be introduced from Sichuan Province. It is estimated that the largest power supply gap in Chongqing will reach about 8.5 million kilowatts in 2025.

　　Tan Hongen also said at the time that the electricity supply and demand situation in Sichuan Province will gradually change from oversupply to phased shortage of demand, that is, from the previous surplus throughout the year to the lack of electricity throughout the dry season and the lack of electricity in some months and some periods of the wet season. The electricity demand in the province is met by purchasing electricity from outside the province.

How to fill the gap?

　　Faced with the power gap, how should Sichuan make up for it?

　　According to the Sichuan Daily, the Sichuan Provincial Department of Economics and Information Technology, the State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company and other departments (units) have launched three-level control measures to ensure power supply.

The first step is to initiate active peak staggering measures. For power users who actively participate in and effectively implement active peak staggering and load response, State Grid Sichuan Electric Power will refund their corresponding fees when settling electricity bills.

In the second step, in view of the current situation, formulate the "Sichuan Province Implementation Plan for Suspension of Production in Some High-load Energy Industries in 2022 to Provide Electricity to the People", and from August 14th to 20th, some high-load energy enterprises will be suspended for production and electricity. With the regulation of the people, the electricity load is about 7 million kilowatts to ease the pressure on the power supply.

The third step is to implement the "Emergency Notice on Expanding the Scope of Industrial Enterprises to Let Electricity to the People".

In terms of promoting coal storage in thermal power, as of August 13, the entire network has stored 2.15 million tons of coal, an increase of 1.45 million tons and more than double the year-on-year increase, ensuring stable and full thermal power generation.

In addition, strive for extra-provincial power support - actively seek emergency power support from the National Development and Reform Commission and State Grid Corporation of China, and implement cross-province and cross-regional support according to the maximum transmission channel capacity.

　　The Sichuan Water Resources Department requested on the 15th that all localities should do their best to store water and ensure supply, and relevant functional departments should further optimize the joint dispatch of river basins and reservoirs. , to achieve the highest utilization efficiency of water resources.

　　From a long-term perspective, the "2021 Sichuan Electric Power Market Operation Report" pointed out that in order to achieve the "dual carbon" goal and build a new power system, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Sichuan will vigorously develop wind power and photovoltaics, which are expected to increase by nearly 20 million kilowatts. The installed capacity of new energy power generation is about three times that of 2020; at the same time, the total installed capacity of major large-scale hydropower stations currently under construction exceeds 36 million kilowatts, and it is expected that about 32 million kilowatts will be put into operation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.

　　The above-mentioned report also stated that it is necessary to meet the new demand for supply in the province and improve the supply guarantee market mechanism.

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Deeply dig the remaining capacity of the transmission channel, expand the northwest bypass Qingyu, Shaanwu and other channels to send space to Sichuan, and make every effort to ensure that all outsourcing channels can be used up.

Research to explore the mechanism of capacity compensation.

Study the capacity compensation mechanism adapted to the power structure of Sichuan Province, guide conventional energy to play a supporting and regulating role, and ensure the long-term reliable power supply capacity of the system.

Explore demand-side resources to participate in the market.

Research and establish a market mechanism that adapts to the participation of demand-side resources, and tap demand-side resources such as adjustable industrial and commercial loads, electric vehicles, and energy storage to participate in market transactions.

(For more reporting clues, please contact the author of this article, Xue Yufei: xueyufei@chinanews.com.cn) (China-Singapore Jingwei APP)

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