Stock exchanges: Investors are calm about share price losses

There was no convincing recovery on the stock markets on Tuesday, but professional investors are still calm about further developments.

The German share index Dax was on Tuesday afternoon thanks to a friendly opening on Wall Street with 15,214 points, 0.5 percent above the previous day's close.

On Monday, the Dax had lost 2.6 percent.

It was one of the blackest trading days of the year.

The index had increased by up to 1 percent on Tuesday morning, but then the momentum fizzled out.

The cautious attitude among investors has triggered concerns about new lockdown measures should the delta variant of the coronavirus continue to cause high new infections.

Markus Frühauf

Editor in business.

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"It is rather unlikely that the price losses on Monday represent the prelude to a deeper correction phase," expects Achim Stranz, chief investment strategist at AXA Investment Managers Germany, which manages 70 billion euros.

The fund company of the French insurance group Axa continues to assume continued economic growth in the core scenario.

"This would mean that stocks and real estate would be preferred as investments."

However, there are two risk scenarios for Stranz: firstly, disruptions in the supply chains in Southeast Asia due to the pandemic and low vaccination rates, and secondly, rising inflation.

The high vaccination rate in China speaks against disruptions in the supply chains - unlike, for example, in Malaysia or Indonesia.

So tough lockdown measures like last year are unlikely, at least for this region.

But it has to be shown how effective the Chinese vaccine against the Delta variant is.

"Globalization speaks against the wage-price spiral"

Stranz is also not afraid of an inflation spiral: "The latest inflation rates have been oversubscribed due to the base effect in the previous year, when the pandemic caused an economic standstill." He expects inflation rates to normalize downwards again. "So globalization speaks against an upward accelerating wage-price spiral."

The fund company of the Volks- und Raiffeisenbanken, Union Investment, also remains confident.

After the strong price recovery over many months, the equity quotas of investors have increased accordingly, says Michael Herzum, head of the Macro & Strategy department.

Now the recovery path is flattening a little, and there is also the uncertainty due to the new virus variant.

That explains the price declines.

“But the economic recovery will continue, because the central banks will provide liquidity for a long time to come and the companies are highly profitable.

We therefore do not expect any major correction, ”says Herzum.

"No need to worry"

The chief investment strategist of DWS, the asset manager of Deutsche Bank, points to the Dax and the world share index MSCI World, which are at historic highs. For Stefan Kreuzkamp, ​​a correction like the current one is not yet a cause for concern, but rather normal market events. The DWS does not assume that the delta variant would be sufficient for a correct correction. So far, setbacks in the fight against the pandemic have been seen first and foremost as an entry-level opportunity by those who stuck to their medium-term economic outlook.

Both inflation and growth were not sustained at a high level this year. At the same time, economic activity in many areas, such as the US labor market, has not yet returned to pre-crisis levels. “In 2022, the global economy should again grow at an above-average rate. However, the stock markets have largely mapped it that way, which is why we only expect little upside potential over the twelve-month period, ”says Kreukamp.

Bernhard Langer, investment strategist at the American asset manager Invesco, is preparing for “rocking exchanges” over the summer, with corrections of 5 percent in the meantime. "After a phase of euphoria and the achievement of all-time highs, the markets are now beginning to have doubts about the dynamics of the recovery," he replied to the FAZ. "Some market participants have simply caught it on the wrong foot that the path to normality could take a little longer than assumed." This is currently reflected in the markets. The Invesco strategist compares this to "adapting to reality".