Recent international crude oil futures prices have fluctuated downwards Institutional analysis:
refined oil may usher in the first downward adjustment during the year
The price adjustment window for this round of refined oil products is at 24:00 on April 15. Where will oil prices go?
The reporter noticed that the price of international crude oil futures has been fluctuating downward recently.
At the same time, according to the calculations of many institutions, the rate of change in this round of pricing cycle will develop in a negative range, and the domestic retail price of refined oil may open the first round of downward window of the year.
Text and photos / All media reporter Zhang Lu of Guangzhou Daily
Brent oil falls below $100 a barrel for the first time since March 15
According to the calculation of Jinlianchuang, the rate of change as of the sixth working day on April 11 was -8.37%. The average price of reference oil was US$103.69, and domestic gasoline and diesel should be reduced by 580 yuan/ton.
The rate of change in this round of pricing cycle is developing in a negative range, and the retail price is about to open the first round of downward window of the year.
According to the calculation of the business agency, the trend of oil prices in this cycle has declined. As of the seventh working day on the 12th, the rate of change is -9.02%. The average price of reference oil types is 102.98 US dollars, and the domestic gasoline and diesel prices should be reduced by 620 yuan / ton.
The reporter noticed that on April 11, international oil prices dropped significantly.
The United States Joint International Energy Agency released its strategic oil reserves on a large scale, which continued to accelerate the decline in international oil prices on Monday. Brent oil prices fell below the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since March 15.
As of the close, light sweet crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $94.29 a barrel, a decrease of 4.04%; London Brent crude oil futures for June delivery closed at $98.48 a barrel, a decrease of 4.18 %.
As of 10:33 on April 13, Beijing time, the U.S. crude oil market rose slightly by 0.45%.
Industry insiders said that the factors that led to the decline in oil prices mainly include the following, the continuous fermentation of the US announcement of the release plan of the strategic oil reserve and the impact of the market on the public health event, general concerns about the decline in demand and the continued rise in the dollar also put pressure on oil prices.
Market outlook: International oil prices will continue to fluctuate significantly in the second quarter
Regarding the market outlook, Jinlianchuang believes that, on the whole, the international oil price will continue to fluctuate greatly in the second quarter. Due to the uncertainty of external factors, the oil price has huge fluctuation space, and rational operation should be maintained during this period.
The mainstream operating range for WTI is expected to be $90-140 per barrel, and the mainstream operating range for Brent is $95-145 per barrel.
The business agency said that oil prices are still subject to news disturbances in the short term, exacerbating shocks. With the domestic epidemic under certain control, logistics and transportation will gradually recover in the later stage, and there may be some support in demand, but there is still a certain amount of sales in the refinery in the short term. Pressure, it is expected that the price of refined oil will be difficult to improve in the short term.