Our reporter Cao Zheng
"Boots" with limited purchases in Shenzhen landed yesterday. The New Deal Restrictions set a threshold for Shenzhen’s local household registration to “have been settled for 3 years and social security for 36 months”. This move is rare in the whole country and was rated as "the most stringent regulation in history". In the second half of the year, there have been over-regulations on the heating up of the property market in Hangzhou and Ningbo. According to industry analysis, such policies have a strong vane significance. It is expected that some cities with overheated housing prices in the second half of this year will still be guided by tightening policies.
No retreat in Shenzhen
Nord Holiday Garden is a "benchmark" in Shenzhen's Qianhai area. However, after the epidemic eased, the prices of the main units rose sharply, with an increase of one or two million yuan. The reporter inquired the transaction history and found that the average transaction price of the community in July last year was around 90,000 yuan, but in January this year it has exceeded 110,000 yuan. By May and June this year, most of them have been around 120,000 yuan and 130,000 yuan. .
"When other neighborhoods saw the price increase in this community, they also went up and took the price up," said an agent of an intermediary store. Intermediary Xiao Chen introduced that among the people who recently asked him to buy a house, in addition to the local needs in Shenzhen, many people have just settled in Shenzhen. "Although these people are settled in Shenzhen, they do not work in Shenzhen at all. The purchase of a house is purely for investment."
For a time, the high fever in the Shenzhen property market did not retreat. The Shell Research Institute disclosed that in Shenzhen last week (July 6 to July 12), the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Lianjia broke through the highest level of weekly transactions this year. In the second quarter, the number of price rises of listed owners of second-hand houses in Shenzhen accounted for more than 50%. The market Expectations are optimistic.
Interestingly, a week ago, the Shenzhen Real Estate Agents Association also issued a document saying that untrue rumors about the imminent introduction of a new policy on real estate regulation and control in Shenzhen were intentionally spread, irresponsibly urging the urgent atmosphere of the property market transaction, and misleading the second-hand housing network in the short term. Signed data rose 40.7% month-on-month.
In addition to higher requirements in terms of taxes and fees, the Shenzhen Purchase Restriction New Deal also stipulates that resident families and adult singles (including divorces) must have settled in the city for 3 years and can provide 36 consecutive months of payment in the city before the date of purchase. Only the above personal income tax or social insurance certificate can buy commercial housing.
The cooling of the property market has to be cured
Prior to this, there were few places where social security and settlement years were required for local household registration buyers. The local agent told reporters that in addition to keeping the newly settled house buyers out of the door, the new policy also adopted policies such as taxes and fees, and ordinary housing standards to curb price increases.
"It is clearly stipulated that the registered population must be settled for more than 3 years and have a social security payment record to buy a house, which accurately cracked down on the phenomenon of housing in Shenzhen in the first half of the year." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute, believes. Yan Yuejin, Research Director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, explained that such policies are introduced in response to the new situation in Shenzhen where the supply and demand contradictions are increasing and must be alleviated by policy regulation.
Shenzhen is expected to enter the adjustment cycle. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, believes that some investors are likely to start leaving the market, and the transaction volume will start to shrink rapidly from July to August, and house prices will also start to adjust. "If the policy is strictly implemented, it is expected that Shenzhen's housing prices will begin to reduce significantly in the next six months," he said.
Overweight purchase restriction may be effective quickly, but the cooling of the property market still needs to be combined with dredging and blocking, and the problem of low land supply in Shenzhen still needs to be solved urgently. In this regard, the Shenzhen Housing and Urban-rural Construction Bureau said it will increase the supply of residential land. This year it plans to supply more than 3 square kilometers of residential land, which is more than double the previous year. The new land will be mainly used for public housing construction in the future; This year, 12 million square meters of commercial housing has been started, which is nearly twice the previous 6 million square meters to 8 million square meters.
Regulation or successive tightening to combat real estate speculation
In the second half of the year, Hangzhou, Ningbo and other places are tightening their control, with a clear purpose: to crack down on real estate speculation.
In the middle of the night on July 6, the New Deal in Ningbo's property market again. The biggest change is to expand the purchase restriction area from the original 140 square kilometers to 240 square kilometers. The Housing and Urban-rural Construction Bureau of Ningbo explained that the real estate market in Ningbo has been generally overheated in recent times. In the land market, competition for land auctions is fierce, land prices continue to rise, and the premium rate continues to rise. In the real estate market, price increases are expected to increase, many The real estate reproduces the phenomenon of queuing to buy a house and the "day CD".
Hangzhou has also recently issued a document clarifying the five-year sales restriction on the purchase of houses by high-level talents, and stricter the qualification conditions for "houses without houses". From the outside world's point of view, this move has nothing to do with the fact that the Hangzhou real estate market has warmed up in the first half of the year: the sales area of new houses in Hangzhou increased by 12% year-on-year in the first half of the year, the growth rate is larger in key first- and second-tier cities; The price increased by 6.2% year-on-year, and the year-on-year increase was at the forefront of key cities.
"Shenzhen and other places at least illustrate the policy direction this year." Yan Yuejin said that the introduction of such policies is to further promote market stability and prevent market speculation. It is expected that other cities where house prices are unstable and rising too fast may also have policies in place.