Q&A - Is Iraq heading for a transitional phase or the formation of a government without the Sadrist movement?

BAGHDAD -

The resignation of the Sadrist bloc's representatives from the Iraqi parliament marked a new turning point in the political process, which cast a shadow over the file of government formation, which was handed over to the so-called "coordinating framework" that includes prominent Shiite forces, which imposes on everyone a political repositioning.

This is the first time that the Sadrist MPs will be absent from Parliament since 2006, and what complicates the matter is that the withdrawing bloc was the winner in the October 2021 elections, amid questions about the possibility of forming a government without the Sadrist movement, and the nature of the “coordinating framework” forces’ dealings with Sadr's allies are Sunnis and Kurds.

The forces of the "coordinating framework" became the most numerous parliamentary bloc, after obtaining about (40) new seats, taking advantage of the resignation of members of the Sadrist movement, which gives it the upper hand in the file of government formation and the distribution of positions.

But the new situation raised questions about the shape of the relationship between the "coordinating framework" and Sadr's allies, and the possibility of forming a government without the Sadrist movement, as well as future scenarios.

Al-Shammari: Al-Sadr has resolved the issue of withdrawing from the political process (Al-Jazeera)

• Has the file of the Sadrist MPs been resolved?

There was talk a few days ago about the possibility of the Sadrist movement’s deputies returning, but political analyst Dr. Ihsan Al-Shammari saw that as soon as the Diwaniyah orders were issued that accepted the resignation, any legal loophole ended for the Sadrist movement’s deputies to return again to the House of Representatives. Rather, the case did not need to A legal clause to return. Al-Sadr has made his decision on the issue of withdrawing from the political process completely. Therefore, taking the constitutional oath to the replacements of the Sadrist bloc has become part of the administrative procedure of the Iraqi Council of Representatives.

• What is the possibility of forming a government without the Sadrist movement, and how resilient is it?

Al-Shammari says during his speech to Al-Jazeera Net: The coordinating framework forces seem to be moving towards breaking Al-Sadr and isolating him politically, so they announced the move towards forming a government that relies on consensus and balance, which is an extension of the quota governments rejected by the Iraqi people.

Therefore, the Sadrist bloc does not want - according to what Muqtada al-Sadr has stated - to participate in this government, and with those he called the forces of corruption and quotas in Parliament, so I think that the framework will proceed with the consensus project, and whoever joins with the framework will be one of the losing forces on the grounds that they have re-established quotas once other to Iraq.

Al-Issawi: The procedures for forming the government will start after the Eid holiday and the parliament holiday (Al-Jazeera)

• How will the coordination framework deal with the Sovereignty Alliance and the Kurdistan Democratic Party?

The repercussions of the Sadrist withdrawal extend to its two allies, the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Masoud Barzani, and the Sunni Sovereignty Alliance, which includes the “Progress” blocs led by Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi and “Azm” led by Khamis al-Khanjar, who lost their Shiite back, which raises questions about how the forces of the “coordinating framework” With them, will he incline towards political revenge on the grounds of their alliance with Muqtada al-Sadr, or will he adopt another policy because he needs them to pass the new government as well as the presidency of the republic?

Iraqi analysts say that despite the "digital inflation" of the numbers of deputies to the "coordinating framework", it still needs the sovereignty alliance and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, as part of the strategy adopted by it, which is the "tactical alliance" or "the alliance of files", which forces it to coordinate. with them, and give them full guarantees for the implementation of some requirements.

But also, others believe that the framework will view the Kurdistan Democratic Party and even the Sovereignty Alliance as two weak parties that have lost their ally Muqtada al-Sadr, and perhaps the "coordinating framework" will not meet all the conditions they are negotiating now.

Commenting on this, the leader of the Sovereignty Alliance, Issa Sayer al-Issawi, said: "The Alliance to Save a Nation is now formed by the Alliance of Sovereignty, as well as the Kurdistan Democratic Party, without the Sadrist movement, and there have become new understandings, and after the Eid holiday and the parliament holiday, the procedures for forming the government will begin."

Al-Sayer talked about the guarantees obtained by his alliance before entering the session of the “institution of the replacements”, which was held on Thursday. Iraqi politics since 2003 has been a process based on consensus, and it was not a majority party at the expense of another component or party, which means that consensus is the political principle in forming the next government.

• What is the reflection of the complexity of the relationship between Baghdad and Erbil on the file of forming a government?

Within the atmosphere of the political debate that Iraq witnessed during the past eight months, the Federal Court in Baghdad issued a decision unconstitutional for the Kurdistan Region to sell its oil in isolation from the Ministry of Oil. On the line accused the Federal Court of unconstitutionality.

The oil and gas file will be present during the negotiations to form the government, says Dr. Ihsan Al-Shammari, where the "coordinating framework" will provide some guarantees to the regional government.

Al-Shammari stressed that "part of the requirements of the Kurdistan Democratic Party on the coordinating framework is to ignore the decision of the Federal Court, and therefore the region continues to export oil, and this may be part of the next deal, but in the end the decision of the Federal Court will put everyone who exports oil under legal accountability."

Despite the continuation of negotiations between them, Baghdad and Erbil did not reach a solution or agreement regarding the production, export and sale of oil over the past 15 years, and this is what made the issue top the political scene in the country, especially in light of the work to form a new government.

In turn, the representative of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Mariwan Qarni, stressed that "the basis for forming the government will be in accordance with the principles of balance, consensus, partnership, and commitment to the constitution, and when the new deputies took the constitutional oath, last Thursday, the political forces issued a statement that the budget file and other issues will not be disputed." future".

And MP Qarni adds - in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net - that "the statement of the political forces also included work on the oil and gas law, as amendments will be made to it to improve it, and relations between Baghdad and Erbil are going for the better."

Al-Hamami confirmed that the coordinating framework will deal with the Kurdish and Sunni forces as partners in political action (Al-Jazeera)

• What is the probability of dissolving parliament and calling early elections?

This scenario has emerged as one of the possible options since the beginning of the political disputes, as Dr. Al-Shammari sees it as “a possible option if the Iraqi street insists on dissolving the parliament, but I think that the upcoming demonstrations may not target the issue of dissolving the parliament and holding early elections, as far as going towards a transitional stage, The remedy will not be with the new elections, which will not result in something that satisfies the people, which means that things may be heading towards a transitional phase, and that the next government that will be formed by the framework may fall according to indications of the presence of demonstrations that will spread throughout the Iraqi street, which means that we are facing a new assessment of the political system.

As for Aref Al-Hamami, a deputy from the State of Law coalition led by Nuri al-Maliki (within the coordination framework), he believes that "all political forces do not have a direction now regarding the dissolution of parliament, and this matter is not under discussion at the moment."

Al-Hamami added - in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net - that "the coordinating framework will deal with the Kurdish and Sunni forces, and negotiate with them as partners in political action."

It is noteworthy that Iraq has witnessed a political crisis since the last parliamentary elections, where the Sadrist bloc (73 deputies) sought to form a national majority government that includes the top winners from the (Sunni) Sovereignty Alliance and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, but it did not succeed in its endeavor;

Because of the insistence of other Shiite forces in the "Coordination Framework" bloc to form the blocking third coalition in Parliament, to prevent the completion of naming a new president and forming the new government.