Beijing News (Reporter Yang Yijing) According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the seventh week of this year (February 10-February 16), the average purchase price of live pigs of designated slaughter enterprises above designated size in the country is currently the highest, followed by 9 consecutive Weekly decline, this week ushered in 10 consecutive declines.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the seventh week of this year (February 10-February 16), the average purchase price of live pigs at designated slaughter enterprises above designated size was 38.86 yuan / kg, and the average ex-factory price of white strip meat was 50.11 yuan / kg Reaching the highest point so far this year, the purchase price then began to fall. By the 16th week of this year (April 13-19), the average purchase price of live pigs for designated slaughtering enterprises above designated size was 33.95 yuan / kg, and the average ex-factory price of white strip meat was 43.67 yuan / kg, which fell for 9 consecutive weeks.
According to the “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System” monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the pork price monitored this week (April 17, 2020-April 23, 2020) was 44.53 yuan per kilogram, and the wholesale market price continued to fall.
Yang Zhenhai, Director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said earlier that the country ’s live hog production continues to improve, the production capacity of hogs is accelerating, the number of newborn piglets continues to increase, and production in most provinces is stable and improving.
According to the official website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the data collected from 400 designated monitoring counties across the country, the number of breeding sows in March increased by 2.8% month-on-month, faster than 1.2% in January and 1.7% in February. Since October last year, the number of capable sows has increased for 6 consecutive months. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of capable sows in the fourth quarter of last year increased by 950,000 heads compared to the third quarter, and another 3.01 million heads in the first quarter of this year. The end of March this year increased by 13.2% compared with September last year.
According to the monitoring of 160,000 pig farms with more than 500 pigs sold annually in the country, the number of newborn piglets increased for the first time in February. The growth rates in February and March were 3.4% and 7.3% respectively. Newborn piglets can be slaughtered within 6 months, indicating that the number of commercial fattening pigs will gradually increase in July.
According to Yang Zhenhai, there are 28 provinces in the country where the number of breeding sows has increased month-on-month, an increase of 2 provinces from last month. Among them, 10 provinces have more than 4% month-on-month increase in the number of breeding sows. The stocks of capable sows in traditional pig-raising provinces such as Sichuan, Hunan and Henan have increased sequentially for 4 months, 5 months and 7 months respectively.
Yang Zhenhai's analysis pointed out that although the production capacity of hogs has been actively restored, the pattern of tight pork supply has not fundamentally changed. He believes that the supply and demand of pork in the second quarter will also face the pressure of a combination of three factors, such as a low production base, increased import uncertainty, and a rebound in consumption, which may be the most difficult period in this round of pig cycle. Yang Zhenhai said that after July, market supply will gradually improve, but due to more festivals in the second half of the year, the consumption pull is also stronger, and peak pork prices may occur around September. Judging from the year-on-year increase, due to the trend of pork prices from low to high last month, as the market supply improves this year, the year-on-year increase in pork prices will continue to narrow, and it may even decline in the fourth quarter.