Pig prices have dropped sharply and breeding costs have risen

Fatteners increase the risk of buying piglets at high prices

　　Our reporter Qiao Jinliang

　　A few days ago, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released the latest data on national pig production and market operations.

The head of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs told reporters that in October, the stock of live pigs and reproductive sows continued to grow, and the new production capacity was gradually released in the early stage.

With the arrival of the winter consumption season, pork consumption will continue to grow, but the recovery of production will drive a significant increase in pork supply. It is expected that the pork market supply situation will further improve.

　　At present, the stock of breeding sows and pigs is growing rapidly, and the production and sales of breeding pigs and piglets are booming.

According to monitoring, the stock of reproductive sows in October was 39.5 million, an increase for 13 consecutive months, an increase of 32% over the same period last year; the stock of live pigs was 387 million, an increase of 9 consecutive months, an increase of 27% over the same period last year.

The current pig production capacity has recovered to about 88% at the end of 2017.

Following this trend, in the second quarter of next year, the national pig stock will basically return to the level of normal years.

　　Farmers are actively replenishing pens and expanding. In October, 728 new large-scale pig farms were put into production. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative number of newly-built large-scale pig farms has reached 13,000, and another 15,000 large-scale pig farms that were empty last year have begun to re-raise. .

The sow supply capacity has been significantly enhanced. In the first three quarters, the sales volume of binary sows by pig breeding companies increased by 102.6% year-on-year.

Newborn piglets continue to increase, the supply gradually becomes loose, and the price drops sharply.

In some provinces, the price of piglets has dropped from around RMB 2,000 per head at the highest peak to below RMB 1,000.

　　"The supply of live pigs has increased significantly, and pork prices have fallen sharply for more than two consecutive months." The person in charge said that the fattening cycle from piglets to fattening pigs is generally 6 months.

The new production capacity was gradually released in the early stage, and the supply of marketed fat pigs increased significantly.

In September of this year, the slaughter of live pigs changed from a decrease to an increase year-on-year for the first time.

In October, the year-on-year increase was 38.5%, and the growth rate continued to expand. The pork market supply improved significantly.

Since September, pork prices have fallen for more than two consecutive months.

In the second week of November, the price of pork in the national bazaar dropped to 46.47 yuan per kilo, a year-on-year decrease of 18.0%, which was more than 13 yuan lower than the highest price in the third week of February.

　　With the arrival of the peak consumption season in winter, especially New Year's Day and Spring Festival, pork consumption will continue to grow, but the recovery of production will drive a significant increase in pork supply. It is expected that the pork market supply situation will further improve.

In terms of supply, with the gradual release of new production capacity, the number of listed fat pigs will be further expanded. According to estimates, the pork supply during the New Year's Day next year (December 2020 to February 2021) will increase by about 30% over the same period last year.

In terms of demand, the increase in consumption during the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival may lead to a wave of increases in pork prices (the increase in normal years is generally 6% to 10%), but the overall level will be lower than the same period last year.

　　It is worth noting that as the cost of raising pigs increases rigidly, the market risk of fattening households who buy piglets at a high price in the early stage has increased.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the cost of selling a commercial fat pig in October was 1,850 yuan, which was 260 yuan more than before the occurrence of African swine fever.

Among them, the increase in corn prices increased the cost of feed by 80 yuan, the cost of epidemic prevention by 130 yuan, and the cost of manure treatment by 50 yuan.

　　"What needs attention is that the profit of professional fattening households who bought piglets at a high price in the early stage has significantly reduced. The national average price of live pigs has fallen to 29.74 yuan per kilo in the second week of November. If it drops by 3 to 4 yuan, professional fattening households There may be losses." The person in charge reminded.