Securities Times reporter Xing Yun
On the evening of April 6, four pig breeding companies including Muyuan Co., Ltd., Wen's Co., Ltd. and Jinxinnong disclosed their sales data for March.
The data shows that the number of live pigs sold by the above-mentioned companies increased significantly in March; the price of live pigs is still bottoming out, but the decline has narrowed month-on-month.
On March 31, according to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, the price ratio of pig grains has continued to be lower than 5:1 recently, which is in the first-level warning range of excessive decline.
The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant parties, has carried out the third batch of central frozen pork reserves this year.
If the price of live pigs continues to run at a low level in the future, the state will continue to carry out the purchase and storage work to promote the price of live pigs to return to a reasonable range as soon as possible.
Some analysts believe that the current price of live pigs has been running low for a long time, and the possibility of further sharp decline is small.
Births soared in March
The announcement shows that in March, Muyuan Co., Ltd. sold 5.986 million live pigs (including 527,000 piglets), and the sales revenue was 7.432 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of 111.30% and 5.30% respectively.
Muyuan Co., Ltd. said that the price of commercial pigs showed a downward trend in March. The average sales price of the company's commercial pigs was 11.67 yuan/kg, down 5.74% from January to February in 2022.
As of the end of March 2022, the company has 2.752 million breeding sows.
Wen's stock announcement disclosed that the company will sell 1.4484 million pigs (including hairy pigs and fresh products) in March 2022, with an income of 2.106 billion yuan, and the average sales price of hairy pigs is 12.17 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month change of 35.49%, 33.71%, - 3.03%, with year-on-year changes of 143.63%, 14.33%, and -53.55% respectively.
Wen's shares also stated that the company's pork sales and revenue increased month-on-month in March, mainly due to fewer days of sales in February and less pork slaughter; the company's pork sales increased year-on-year, mainly due to the company's increase in seedling investment and Production performance improved; the company's average selling price of hogs decreased year-on-year, mainly due to changes in the domestic hog market.
Another pig farming company, Jin Xinnong, also disclosed March sales data.
Jinxinnong sold a total of 197,700 live pigs in March, with a total sales revenue of 220 million yuan. The average price of live pigs was 12.87 yuan/kg (the average price of commercial pigs was 11.96 yuan/kg after excluding the effects of piglets and breeding pigs). The month-on-month changes in the average price were 192.77%, 156.53%, and -3.92%, respectively, and the year-on-year changes were 171.44%, 9.94%, and -75.92%, respectively.
From January to March, Jinxinnong sold 335,800 live pigs, with a cumulative sales income of 404 million yuan, an increase of 54.96% and -34.44% respectively over the same period last year.
Aonong Biology sold 360,600 live pigs in March, an increase of 18.10% month-on-month and 59.10% year-on-year. At the end of March, the company's live pig inventory was 1,892,200, an increase of 47.88% compared with the end of March 2021 and an increase of 5.56% compared with the end of December 2021. %; From January to March 2022, the company sold a total of 1,046,800 live pigs, a year-on-year increase of 95.81%.
Combing the above data, it can be found that in March, the sales of live pigs of the four listed companies increased significantly year-on-year, but the growth of sales revenue fell significantly behind, because the price of live pigs has been operating at a low level for a long time.
In addition, the price of live pigs continued to bottom out in March, fluctuating within a narrow range around 12 yuan/kg.
Pig prices continue to dip
Comparing the monitoring data of bazaars and collection points in 500 counties by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the fourth week of March, the national average price of live pigs per kilogram was 12.52 yuan, down 0.8% month-on-month and down 54.4% year-on-year; the average price of pork per kilogram was 22.38 yuan , down 1.2% month-on-month, 49.2% year-on-year, and 22.6% cumulatively; the average price of piglets per kilogram was 23.86 yuan, down 1.2% month-on-month and 74.4% year-on-year.
According to the monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of live pigs sold nationwide in January this year increased by 23.6% year-on-year, and the number of live pigs sold in February increased by 8.2% year-on-year.
By the end of 2021, there will be 449 million live pigs in the country, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. These live pigs will be released to the market from January to June this year.
Based on this calculation, the pork market supply in the first half of the year is still at a high level.
Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that the downward trend will continue for a while.
It is hoped that the majority of farm households can keep an eye on the market, control costs, prevent epidemics, and keep pace with the rhythm, so as to survive the relatively difficult stage of live pig production and operation in the near future.
According to the calculation of production cost data in recent years, the price ratio of pig grain at the break-even point of live pig production is about 7:1.
When the price ratio of pig grain is lower than 5:1, it is regarded as entering the first-level warning range of excessive decline.
According to the monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national pig grain price ratio was 4.90:1 in February, down 0.51 points from January.
However, since March, the central and local governments have fully launched pork purchases and storage, which has eased the rapid decline in pig prices, and the decline in pig prices has gradually narrowed.
Sozhu.com analyst Feng Yonghui analyzed that in the short term, it has now entered April, and there is still one month before the May Day holiday. There is basically no room for the price of live pigs to drop, and there is no possibility of a sharp rise.
After all, it is a seasonal off-season of consumption, which has a great impact on the overall catering consumption, so that the support for the current pork consumption is relatively limited, so the pig market will remain weak and fluctuated in the short term.