On October 27, at the 2020 China Society of Automotive Engineers Annual Conference and Exhibition, under the guidance of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the China Society of Automotive Engineers organized more than 1,000 experts in the entire industry, the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles" "Technical Roadmap 2.0" (hereinafter referred to as "Technical Roadmap 2.0") was released in Shanghai.
Technology Roadmap 2.0 puts forward six major goals for the development of China’s auto industry in 2035. China’s auto industry carbon emissions will reach the peak ahead of the national carbon emission reduction commitments around 2028. By 2035, the total carbon emissions will fall from the peak. More than 20%; new energy vehicles will gradually become mainstream products, and the automotive industry will basically achieve electric transformation; China’s intelligent networked vehicle core technology is internationally leading, and products are applied on a large scale; the level of independence of key core technologies has been significantly improved, forming a synergy, high efficiency, A safe and controllable industrial chain; establish an automobile smart travel system to form a deeply integrated ecology of automobiles, transportation, energy, and cities; the technological innovation system is basically mature, with the original innovation ability to lead the world.
"In 2035, the new energy vehicle market will account for more than 50%"
Technology Roadmap 2.0 further emphasizes the development strategy of pure electric drive. It is proposed that by 2035, the market for new energy vehicles will account for more than 50%, and the number of fuel cell vehicles will reach about 1 million. Energy-saving vehicles will be fully hybridized and the automotive industry will achieve Electricity transformation, commercial vehicles realize hydrogen power transformation.
Technology Roadmap 2.0 also predicts from the perspective of market demand that the annual scale of China’s automobile production and sales in 2025, 2030, and 2035 will be 32 million, 38 million, and 40 million, respectively; at the same time, the average number of new passenger vehicles (including new energy) Fuel consumption was reduced to 4.6L/100km, 3.2L/100km, 2.0L/100km; truck fuel consumption was reduced by more than 8%, 10%, and 15% respectively compared with 2019; truck fuel consumption was reduced by 10%, 15%, and 20 respectively compared with 2019 %the above.
In terms of product application, technology roadmap 2.0 predicts that hybrid passenger vehicles will account for more than 50%, 75%, and 100% of traditional car sales in 2025, 2030, and 2035, respectively; new energy vehicles will account for more than 50% of total vehicle sales. The proportions of sales are 20%, 40%, and 50% respectively; by 2035, when the sales of new energy vehicles account for more than 50%, the sales of pure electric vehicles are expected to account for more than 95% of the new energy vehicles.
In terms of intelligent connected vehicles, the technology roadmap 2.0 proposes that in 2025, PA (partially automated driving), CA (conditional autonomous driving) level intelligent connected vehicles accounted for more than 50% of the automobile market sales that year, and HA (highly automated driving) level Intelligent networked vehicles have begun to enter the market; it is estimated that in 2030, PA and CA grades will account for 70% of sales in that year, and HA will account for more than 20%; in 2035, various networked highly autonomous vehicles will be widely used in vast areas of China; at the same time , It is estimated that the assembly rate of newly added C-V2X terminals will reach 50% in 2025, the basic popularization of terminal new car assembly will be realized in 2030, and the intelligent level of infrastructure of highways and urban roads will be realized in 2035 to meet the operational requirements of HA-level intelligent networked vehicles.
In terms of industrial integration, Technology Roadmap 2.0 also puts forward specific requirements on three aspects: automobile and energy, automobile and transportation, and automobile and information communication.
In 2035, new electric vehicles and charging infrastructure will be equipped with V2G functions; the total annual electricity consumption of electric vehicles will reach 100 billion kilowatt-hours of renewable energy; large-scale hydrogen production from renewable energy will be realized; low-cost and low-cost under all road conditions Commercial unmanned driving with high reliability, modular and rapid deployment; V2X technology supports the commercial use of autonomous driving above HA level; high-precision map data accuracy is close to centimeter level, and all dimensions of spatio-temporal big data meet the requirements of FA (fully autonomous driving) level autonomous driving .
Provide technological leadership for the development of the automotive industry
Li Jun, chairman of the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineering and academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that the technology roadmap 2.0 is based on the development of my country's automobile industry under the background of the new round of technological revolution, has recognized the technological development direction and trend of my country's automobile industry, and sorted out current technical shortcomings. Proposed a dynamic vision for the development of automobiles in 2035, and formulated a scientific, forward-looking and leading technical route.
"Roadmap 2.0 has condensed the short-term, mid-term and long-term key core technology research and development needs of my country's auto industry, identified the projects that will be prioritized in the near future, and provided technical guidance for the sustained, rapid and healthy development of my country's auto industry."
Hou Fushen, deputy secretary-general of the China Society of Automotive Engineers, said that the biggest role of Technology Roadmap 2.0 for the industry is to build consensus and gather strength.
The roadmap's guidance to the industry is not only reflected in the results, but also in the compilation process, from the technical backbone and experts in the industry expressing their opinions to the final consensus, the main participants and practitioners in the automotive industry, Through joint discussion and preparation of the roadmap, a consensus was finally reached.
"In terms of policy formulation, the technology roadmap also provides a lot of technical support, including the medium and long-term development plan of the auto industry and the formulation of standards. For companies, the roadmap has a very strong guiding role. According to our understanding, many companies It is precisely because of the release of the roadmap that they have strengthened their confidence in the development of the new energy vehicle industry and greatly advanced the time for mass production of high-performance and high-level batteries. It is conceivable that the 2.0 version of the roadmap will have a greater impact."
In an interview with reporters including The Paper, Cai Wei, the leader of the electric drive system roadmap for new energy vehicles and a professor at Harbin University of Science and Technology, said that the release of the technology roadmap 2.0 will provide various companies in the industry with the next 5-15 years. The development goals at each stage also provide companies with potentially available technologies to achieve these goals.
"In the process of goal setting, we fully considered and combined the actual situation of the enterprise's transformation and development. After the goal is put forward, it is conducive to the enterprise to prepare in advance according to the goal, leaving sufficient time for the enterprise to prepare in advance."
The Paper Journalist Cui Zhuzhu