There are 121 days left, until we know who will win the White House race. It is in the political tradition for a very long time, the outcome of which cannot be estimated, especially in the American elections, and the volatile mood of the electorate there.
Words came out from the Republican Party circles that President Donald Trump might voluntarily exit the race, if he felt that he would definitely not win, which his campaign spokesman quickly denied. We have to remember that things were 100% different, just five months ago, when the booming economy was Trump's guarantee for another four years.
Today in July, we have a pandemic that has killed nearly 130,000 Americans, changed the way of life, plunged the American economy, and we have George Floyd, whose murder sparked a social revolution, similar to what happened in the late 1960s.
Even Trump's most ardent supporters admit, today, that his chances of winning are less than in February, when the idea of re-election was taken for two reasons: the first is the booming economy at the time, and the second is a democratic candidate described by the president as sleepy, and he did not enjoy popularity in his party at the time.
The president has dealt with the Corona crisis, and the demonstrations have hurt him, even his favorite Fox news channel, saying that there is a real possibility that he will lose the elections. In a New York Times poll, Democratic candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden made 14 points, meaning 50%, compared to 36% for Trump, in the women's category.
But we have a lesson in the 2016 US elections, when the world chanted for 10 consecutive months that the winner inevitably was former first lady Hillary Clinton, to surprise the world, on the morning of November 3, with a billionaire real estate and reality TV star as the White House master. This proves that opinion polls are the poorest and most accurate science.
In mid-October 2016, ABC Channel published a poll that revealed that Clinton led 12 points over Trump, 20% among women and she was already a popular vote winner, and this was after the last debate between them, but the electoral college decided Trump as president.
The New York Times poll took place a few days after Trump's electoral rally in Tulsa, in which the president gambled on filling his seats, but he only had 6,200 spectators, while they watched it on TV and communication platforms, reached 7.7 million viewers, and the number announced by the Trump campaign 12 Million - if the numbers are accurate - then this means that the gathering did not fail.
Everything is expected during the remaining 121 days, and if Biden announced a black woman as vice president to enhance his chances among women, we will never rule out Trump changing his deputy Mike Pence, and appointing a woman is also from the minority, and the closest Republican Nikki Haley, his former ambassador At the United Nations, which is said to intend to run for president in 2024.
In Arabic: The difference between campaign supporters is that Trump supporters have a burning enthusiasm for the president and more than half of them are enthusiastic to vote for him, while Biden's supporters rate drops to 27%, and between these and these swingers they say they are not enthusiastic for Biden .. but the current president is not fit to rule.
Abdulla.AlQamzi@emaratalyoum.com
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Today, Trump's most ardent supporters admit that his chances of winning are less than in February.