March LPR is on hold! 3.7% for 1 year Experts: Three reasons

　　China-Singapore Jingwei, March 21 (Dong Xiangyi) The new loan market quotation rate (LPR) for the new phase was released.

On March 21, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce:

　LPR unchanged in March

Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Union Finance, said in an interview with Sino-Singapore Jingwei that the LPR remained unchanged this month for three reasons

.

First, from the interest rate level, the current real economy loan interest rate is already at a low level.

The monetary policy implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2021 released by the central bank shows that at the end of December 2021, the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans of financial institutions was 4.76%, of which the weighted average interest rate of corporate loans was 4.57%, which was at the lowest level in more than 40 years of reform and opening up.

　　Second, from the perspective of the external environment, developed economies are tightening monetary and financial policies.

my country's monetary policy is "me-based", but this also makes financial management departments and financial institutions more cautious in lowering policy interest rates and market interest rates to a certain extent.

　　Third, on March 15, the central bank launched a one-year MLF operation of 200 billion yuan in the open market, and the winning interest rate remained unchanged at 2.85%. The MLF maturity scale that month was 100 billion yuan, and a net investment of 100 billion yuan was realized.

Dong Ximiao said that in general, if the MLF does not change, the LPR adjustment is less likely.

In addition, the central bank did not conduct RRR cuts and other operations in March, and the cost of funds for banks did not change significantly, and there was insufficient space and motivation to compress and add points.

　　Pacific Securities also believes that the 1-year MLF operating rate is the reference basis for the 1-year LPR quotation. The 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) interest rate conducted by the central bank on the 15th is the same as the previous period, and the 1-year LPR quotation this month will have a high probability. Remains unchanged; but the 5-year LPR is likely to fall to boost home sales.

　　Wind data shows that after the LPR reform in August 2019, the LPR has been lowered several times.

In terms of the stock market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly in the short term, but rose overall in the long term.

In the bond market, the yields of 10-year treasury bonds generally fell in the short term, and the yields generally rose in the long run.

　　The central bank said this month that in order to increase its available financial resources, it will hand over surplus profits to the central government in accordance with the law this year, with a total of more than 1 trillion yuan, mainly used for tax rebates and increased transfer payments to local governments, to support the relief of enterprises, stabilize employment and protect people's livelihood.

　　In the view of Western Securities, the central bank's handover of profits may push the LPR quotation down.

From the perspective of reserves, the reserves derived from foreign exchange deposits when the central bank turns over the balance of profits has no cost, which is equivalent to the banking system will obtain 1 trillion in reserves without cost in 2022.

Calculated according to the MLF interest rate, the 1 trillion turned over can help the banking system save 28.5 billion yuan in interest costs, which is similar to the cost savings for the banking system from the previous two RRR cuts.

That is to say, with the increase of the profit from the central bank's balance, it is possible to guide the bank to lower the LPR quotation separately.

　　In the "Main Policy Ideas for the Next Phase" of the "Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2021", the central bank clearly stated that it would "guide the decline of corporate loan interest rates and effectively promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs for enterprises"; and in the third quarter report, the relevant The formulation is "promote the comprehensive financing cost of small and micro enterprises to stabilize and decrease".

　　Dongfang Jincheng believes that it is still in a period of economic downward pressure, and there is still room for reducing the financing cost of enterprises through the reduction of LPR quotations in the future.

In addition, in order to curb the downward trend of the property market, the next step is to reduce the LPR quotation for a period of more than 5 years and reduce the interest rate of personal housing loans by a large margin.

(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)