Levant .. Regional and international battlefield (5-5)

The Russian and Chinese presence and the role played by Moscow and Beijing in the region - especially in Syria - were a source of concern and inconvenience for the American presence in the region, in terms of influencing the balance of power or in terms of restricting the movements of American forces in it, or in terms of the complexity of conflict equations.

It is true that the strength of the small American presence in Syria and Iraq is doubled by the presence of a huge American military infrastructure in the region, which has tens of thousands of soldiers deployed in 14 countries in the region (Turkey, Jordan, the Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Afghanistan ... etc), there is no competitor and undisputed, and this A reality that allied forces with the Syrian regime realized after a bitter experience in February 2018, when it faced the superior and mighty American military capabilities when it attempted to attack it east of the Euphrates.

But this does not diminish the impact that the Russian and Chinese presence has had on balances, conflicts and roles, especially after the tension in US-Turkish relations against the background of the divergent positions of the two parties on the “Kurdish People's Protection Units”, the military arm of the Democratic Union Party (Kurdish), and its role in the war to organize The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), and the great American military support provided to it or to the new framework at the time, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Likewise, Turkey's involvement in the Astana track and the coordination of its political and military positions in Syria with Russia and Iran, knowing that Russia considered the US national defense strategy for the year 2018 as an enemy, and proposed to refocus the effort of the American forces to focus on its rival, she and China.

As for Iran, it has been on the agenda of successive US administrations since 1979, and its role in the instability in the region is negatively affecting US interests; and it seeks to use Chinese / Russian differences with the United States to adopt positions in its favor, thus increasing pressure against the United States. .

The common goal of the three countries (Russia, China and Iran) is to limit American influence in the region and work to get Washington out of it, and Turkey's repeated threat against the US presence on its soil - particularly at Incirlik base - poses a challenge to the US presence in the region.

America’s exit from the region means Russia and Iran control the entire Arab Levant, especially since the United States’s allies in the region (Jordan, Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Bahrain) are not strong except for Israel, and they have no regional ambitions like Turkey and Iran, which makes Turkey’s keenness to balance the East The West is more and more disturbing to the United States.

Syria and Iraq were two battlefields and rivalry between Turkey, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Qatar, each of them trying to achieve geopolitical gains and score points on its opponents and competitors. The developments of the Syrian conflict called for mobile and changing alliances as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar - each with their own accounts - crossed their position in support of the opposition forces Syrian political and armed.

Then this alliance turned into rivalry and containment attempts, eventually turning into blatant antagonism and hostility, and at the ruins of an Israeli-Saudi-Israeli intersection against Iran and Turkey at the same time, to evict them from Syria and confront Iran in the Gulf with American blessing.

Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Egypt moved to confront Turkish influence in Libya with Russian blessing, and Syria was - until recently - an armed proxy confrontation between Turkey and Iran, and Iraq is a field of intense competition between their allies from the local Sunni and Shiite political forces, but the competition has cooled relatively in light of the intersection of interests around the project Kurdish in eastern Syria, and about working to get American forces out of there, each for its own considerations.

Turkey wants to weaken the Kurdish forces and Iran is seeking to secure a land corridor to Lebanon and the shores of the Mediterranean, with their difference over the future of this region between establishing a security zone under the supervision of Turkey and returning it to the control of the Iranian regime.

The United States seeks to remove Iran from Syria, or significantly weaken its influence, and focuses phasedly on keeping Turkey away from Russia and Iran, and pushing it to discipline with the criteria of an alliance with it. As for Russia, with the importance of Iran for its geostrategic approach in the region, it does not oppose the removal of Iran - as well as Turkey - from Syria, to ensure the West's contribution to the reconstruction of Syria, but it does not rush to expel it, pending a return from the West.

This is with the intensification of competition between Turkey and Iran for influence in the region, and the ability of each of them to be an active participant in launching a serious regional competition for influence. And Turkey's occupation of Syria can be considered the first opening attack in this competition, which made Turkey and Iran a source of headache for the United States and Russia, in light of the rule that governs the behavior of the major powers and which stipulates their isolation in their areas of influence and work to keep any other forces (international or regional) from these areas .

Therefore, with the removal of Iran and Turkey from Syria and Iraq, or at least the marginalization of their role, to serve their interests and their common goal of protecting Israel's security and preserving its superiority in the region. This prompted the United States to encourage Saudi Arabia and the UAE to open up to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and support them politically and financially.

Likewise, turning a blind eye to the Israeli strikes on Iranian centers and warehouses in Iraq, and standing in the face of Tehran's attempts to strengthen its geopolitical position in Syria, which took various forms from the military expansion to the economic, cultural and sectarian presence and penetration of the institutions of the Syrian state.

All of this made the Levant a region "simultaneously polarized and integrated," according to the description of American diplomat Robert Malley. And making its crises and hot files attract external interventions to invest in local factors or to contain them quickly before their development and complexity.

This has opened - with the Sunni / Sunni division and structures of dysfunctional countries in the region - non-state actors in the movement, recording attendance and achieving gains, nurturing conflicts and engaging in proxy wars, and giving major regional states new opportunities to try to expand their spheres of influence, and launch new competitions on Determine the fate of the political map - perhaps geographic - for the region in the future.