A few days ago, the "2021 Harbin National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin" was released.
Data show that at the end of the year, the city's resident population was 9.885 million, and the city's natural population growth rate was -2.0‰.
This figure is 116,000 less than the 10.001 million permanent resident population of Harbin at the end of 2020 announced by the "Heilongjiang Statistical Yearbook 2021".
Therefore, following the announcement of the "Seven Census" data last year in Nanyang City, Henan Province, the population of Harbin City also fell below 10 million.
The number of cities with a population of 10 million in the country has dropped to 17, and there are no cities with a population of 10 million in the Northeast.
The resident population of Harbin has experienced negative growth for several consecutive years.
According to the official statistical yearbook, from 2017 to 2020, the permanent resident population of Harbin was 10.929 million, 10.858 million and 10.763 million respectively.
In addition, Harbin's aging population is serious.
At the end of 2021, among the registered population of the city, the population over the age of 60 was 2.345 million, accounting for 24.9%; the population aged 0-17 was 1.217 million, accounting for 12.9%.
So, how will the pattern of cities with tens of millions of people across the country change?
Vice President of the Chinese Population Society, Professor Lu Jiehua of the Department of Sociology of Peking University, and Wang Xiaofeng, Executive Director of the Chinese Population Society and Director of the Institute of Population, Resources and Environment of Jilin University, both said in an interview with the Red Star News reporter that the population inflection point has now reached, Changchun, It is still relatively difficult for Shenyang to compete with the new Northeast city with a population of 10 million.
Lu Jiehua pointed out that not only the Northeast, but also some provincial capital cities in other regions may start to decline in the next few years, but the Northeast, as one of the most significant and earliest areas of China's population decline, is beginning to show.
The general trend is that the population will gather in cities with relatively good economic development, institutional environment and business environment.
Harbin became a mega city last year,
But the urban population has started to decline
Harbin has just joined the ranks of megacities.
In November 2014, the State Council issued the "Notice on Adjusting the Criteria for Urban Scale Division", which stipulates that cities with a permanent population of more than 5 million and less than 10 million are megacities; cities with a population of more than 10 million are megacities.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Qiushi, as of 00:00 on November 1, 2020, there are 7 megacities and 14 megacities across the country.
Among them, Harbin and Dalian have become new megacities.
So far, among the four sub-provincial cities in Northeast China, Shenyang, Harbin and Dalian have become megacities.
The data shows that the resident population of Harbin is 5.5 million.
However, according to the "Seventh census" data, Harbin has a resident population of 10,009,900, a decrease of 626,100 compared with the sixth census. It is the only city with negative growth among the four sub-provincial cities in Northeast China, and the only provincial capital city with negative growth in the country.
The census data shows that the population of the suburban counties of Harbin has generally decreased.
Lu Jiehua pointed out that since some big cities still have a considerable rural population, it is not the most important thing to fall below the 10 million level. It depends on the changes in the urban population.
According to the statistical bulletin of Harbin over the years, at the end of 2021, the population of its nine districts and the registered urban population also declined for the first time, with a decrease of 16,000 and 19,000 respectively compared with the end of the previous year.
The standard basis for the division of urban scale in my country is also the urban population.
Why has the population of the Northeast declined as a whole?
Expert: The loss will reach a certain level
The overall population of the Northeast has experienced negative growth for many years.
Population growth includes natural growth and mechanical growth (ie, population inflow).
According to the statistical bulletin of the three provinces, in 2021, the natural population growth rate of Heilongjiang will be -5.11‰, that of Liaoning will be -4.18‰, and that of Jilin will be -3.38‰.
"The Northeast is not only facing a decline in the total population, but its biggest problem is the structure. There will be more and more elderly people, and young people will go there." Lu Jiehua said.
Both Lu Jiehua and Wang Xiaofeng pointed out that the population loss is related to the number of employment opportunities and the level of economic development in the city.
The Northeast has been grappling with population issues.
According to the Heilongjiang Daily, on February 21, 2022, Xu Qin, Secretary of the Heilongjiang Provincial Party Committee and Director of the Standing Committee of the Provincial People's Congress, presided over a meeting of the Standing Committee of the Provincial Party Committee to review the "Heilongjiang Provincial Party Committee of the Communist Party of China Heilongjiang Provincial People's Government on Optimizing the Birth Policy to Promote Population Implementation Plan for Long-Term Balanced Development.
The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to make overall plans for the long-term balanced development of the population, promote the organic connection between population planning and economic and social development planning, and fundamentally solve the outflow of people by cultivating industries, establishing enterprises, and increasing employment, so as to achieve stability in business, keep people in mind, and retain people. and population decline.
Wang Xiaofeng pointed out that the population also has a self-regulating effect.
After the population loss in the Northeast reaches a certain level and the population density is low to a certain level, it will reach a state of balance. On the one hand, the outflow of its own population will be reduced, and on the other hand, it will also attract foreigners who like places with few people.
The resident population of some cities has declined,
How did the northeastern capital city regain its appeal?
It's not just the Northeast that is seeing population declines.
Among the major cities that have published statistical bulletins, Beijing, Tangshan, Shijiazhuang and Tianjin also saw a decline in their permanent resident population.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, my country will have 10.62 million births in 2021, with a birth rate of 7.52‰, a new low after falling below 1% for the first time last year. The natural growth rate is 0.34‰.
The provincial statistical bulletin shows that in 2021, 16 of the 31 provinces and municipalities will see a decline in the resident population, and 15 provinces will see an increase in the resident population.
In addition, 11 provinces experienced negative natural population growth.
Among them, 5 provinces have turned negative for the first time in the natural population growth rate in recent decades.
However, a number of provinces with declining populations experienced a decrease in the total population but an increase in the population of the provincial capital.
Do young people in northeastern counties and cities prefer to go to the provincial capital, or do they jump out of the northeast and go to the south?
At present, the population of Changchun, the capital of Jilin Province, is still growing, and the population of Shenyang, the capital of Liaoning Province, which has not yet released the 2021 statistical bulletin, has also been growing.
Changchun has clearly put forward the goal of the permanent population exceeding 10 million in the "14th Five-Year Plan" outline.
So, can Changchun or Shenyang, with a population of just over 9 million, become the next city with a population of 10 million in Northeast China?
Both Lu Jiehua and Wang Xiaofeng believe that now that the population inflection point has been reached, it is still relatively difficult for Changchun and Shenyang to compete with the new Northeast cities with a population of 10 million.
Therefore, the pattern of large cities in the Northeast will not change much.
Lu Jiehua believes that not only the Northeast, but also other regions in the next few years, such as the provincial capital cities in some western regions, may also begin to decline in population, but the Northeast, as one of the regions with the most significant and earliest population decline in China, is beginning to show.
"Cities that are particularly attractive, such as first-tier cities, can still maintain a population level of 10 million, while other cities with relatively weak attractiveness will gradually decline in population. The general trend in the future is that the population will be relatively low in terms of economic development, institutional environment, and business environment. Good cities gather." Lu Jiehua predicted.
Wang Xiaofeng added that the government will give priority to the development of the provincial capital. The role and status of the provincial capital city in the northeast is still there. It may still be attractive to the population of small cities in the province, but it is not very attractive to the population outside the province.
Among the 17 cities with a population of 10 million, there are 7 in the north and 10 in the south.
Many cities have also proposed to enter the cities with a population of 10 million.
In addition to Changchun, Nanjing, Nanning, Kunming and other cities have put forward the goal of tens of millions of people.
The city club with a population of 10 million is still in the process of shuffling.
Red Star News reporter Wu Yang intern reporter Hu Yiwen reported in Beijing