Global Alert! Community spread of monkeypox in the UK, has the virus evolved? WHO: Human-to-human transmission has occurred! Chinese giants are buying dips one after another, how will the market go?
Brokerage China Author: Shi Qian
One wave is not flat, another wave is rising!
While the Covid-19 pandemic is still raging, the monkeypox virus hit the headlines this weekend and was the focus of the World Health Organization.
According to the latest data, the virus has spread in 12 countries and infected more than 100 people.
Monkeypox can kill as many as 1 in 10 people infected with the disease.
Even more vigilant is that the virus has already seen community spread in the UK.
Monkeypox is spreading through the community in the UK, with new cases being discovered every day, a senior British doctor has warned, according to Sky News.
Officials expect a "significant increase" this week after confirming that the total number of infections had risen to 20 on Friday.
On the 21st local time, the WHO pointed out that existing information shows that human-to-human transmission is occurring among people who have had close physical contact with symptomatic cases.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued a warning urging people to be "vigilant" about monkeypox.
After New York's first positive case of monkeypox, the city's health agency has called on local residents to put back "removed" masks indoors.
The U.S. government has ordered millions of doses of the vaccine.
Experts say the virus may have evolved and become more contagious.
Returning to the market level, since last Thursday, the A-share market has uncovered the monkeypox concept stocks sector.
However, this weekend, one after another listed companies responded.
On the other hand, industry leaders such as Alibaba and Weil shares continued to hunt down related companies.
How will the A-share market perform after the rally last Friday?
Beware of monkeypox
This past Sunday, monkeypox suddenly rushed to the top of Baidu's hot search and Weibo's hot search.
There are now more than 100 confirmed and suspected cases of monkeypox in Europe, data compiled by Reuters showed.
When the new crown epidemic has not yet ended, the sudden attack of the monkeypox virus still makes people somewhat instinctively vigilant.
What is even more worrying is that, according to Agence France-Presse, Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser of the British Health Security Agency, said on May 22 that new cases of monkeypox virus infection appeared in the UK every day. Community spread in the UK, the virus is not linked to travel to West Africa.
The British Health Security Agency said on the same day that after 20 cases of monkeypox virus infection were reported on the 20th, new data will be released on the 23rd.
After confirming that the total number of infections had risen to 20 on Friday, officials expect a "significant increase" this week.
On the 21st local time, Switzerland announced that the country had confirmed its first case of monkeypox.
Up to now, after the United Kingdom, 12 countries around the world have reported confirmed or suspected cases of monkeypox, of which Spain is more urgent.
Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) held an emergency meeting on Friday (20th) to discuss the recent "unprecedented" outbreak.
The situation is changing, WHO said, and it expects more cases of monkeypox to be detected as surveillance expands in non-endemic countries.
According to foreign media reports on the 21st, Krueger, the top WHO official in Europe, warned that there may be a wave of monkeypox cases in Europe in the next few months, "As we enter the summer of mass gatherings, festivals and parties, I am worried Spread may accelerate."
In addition, virus experts have pointed out that the spread of monkeypox outside West and Central Africa is "highly unusual", the behavior of the virus appears to have changed, and it is suspected to be more contagious.
US stockpiles millions of vaccine doses
According to overseas news, after the United States reported its first case of monkeypox infection this year, the US media "Newsweek" reported on the 19th that the US health department has ordered millions of doses of monkeypox vaccine worth $119 million.
On the 18th, the Danish vaccine company Bavarian Nordic issued a statement saying that the company signed a contract worth hundreds of millions of dollars with the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA).
According to the contract, the company will convert vaccines already produced under previous contracts with the US into freeze-dried vaccines, thereby extending their shelf life.
The statement also mentioned that the U.S. government’s contract with the company totals $299 million to provide 13 million doses of freeze-dried monkeypox vaccines, with the first batch of vaccines expected to be delivered next year (2023).
According to a report by "Russia Today" on the 20th, in addition to the vaccine, the U.S. Department of Defense signed a $7.5 million contract with a pharmaceutical company last week to purchase an antiviral treatment for monkeypox.
According to the data, the name monkeypox originated from the first discovery of the virus in monkeys by a Danish laboratory in 1958.
The first human case was identified in a child in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 1970.
Monkeypox virus is transmitted from one person to another through close contact with contaminated materials such as lesions, body fluids, respiratory droplets, and bedding.
The incubation period for monkeypox is usually 6 to 13 days, but it can be 5 to 21 days.
Monkeypox is usually self-limiting but can be severe in some individuals, such as children, pregnant women, or people who are immunosuppressed due to other medical conditions.
Compared with the Congo Basin clade, human infection in the West African clade appeared to result in less severe disease, with a case fatality rate of 3.6% compared with 10.6% in the Congo Basin clade.
Monkeypox concept stocks open for speculation
As the monkeypox virus heats up, the stock market hype over the virus also kicked off last Thursday.
Some investors have summarized a document involving Daan Gene, Zhijiang Biology, Changchun High-tech, Kangchen Pharmaceutical, Unionway, Renfu Medicine, Yatai Group, Chengda Biology, Wantai Biology, Tiantan Biology, West Point There are more than a dozen companies such as Pharma, Baipsis, Aladdin, and Jingxin Pharmaceutical.
These companies also performed very well last week. Zhijiang Bio rose by more than 16% last Friday, and Changchun High-tech and Chengda Bio also rose sharply.
So, how far can this sector go?
From the current point of view, there are mainly three directions: one is diagnosis, the other is vaccine, and the third is specific medicine.
The Huashan Infection official account published an article saying that preparations should be made in advance, the monitoring of cases with similar symptoms should be strengthened, and diagnostic methods and reagents should be developed.
From the perspective of testing, currently Zhijiang Bio, Shuo Shi Bio, and Daan Gene have indicated that they have relevant product reserves; from the perspective of vaccines, the smallpox vaccine is about 85% effective against monkeypox.
At present, Tiantan Bio has the technical reserves of smallpox vaccine; from the point of view of drugs, there is currently no specific drug for the treatment of monkeypox.
On Friday, the FDA-approved drug Tecoviride inhibited 50 percent of monkeypox virus replication in vitro.
Some analysts believe that A-share Unionway subsidiary Aibixin and others have such drugs for sale, and Aladdin (cidofovir) can be used to treat smallpox.
Giants continue to buy bottoms
So, in the context of the sudden onset of monkeypox, how will the market go?
First of all, there is no need to panic, as the WHO has not declared it a "public health emergency of international concern".
Secondly, judging from the rhythm of the market itself and investor behavior, it may not be affected by this in the short term.
The research report of CITIC Construction Investment Strategy on May 22 pointed out that from the perspective of risk premium, exchange hands, and new fund issuance, market sentiment is still at the bottom of the downturn. Although there is still a possibility of continued decline in the future, the odds The space is relatively limited.
Strategically, we can no longer be pessimistic, and we must gradually turn to optimism. The improvement trend of the entire internal and external environment is a high probability event.
Some giants are also in action.
Alibaba Health announced on the evening of May 22 that the shares of Alibaba Health indirectly held by Alibaba Group Holding Co., Ltd. through its subsidiaries increased from 7.665 billion shares to 7.713 billion shares, and the proportion of the total issued share capital of Alibaba Health increased from 56.7% to About 57.06%.
On the evening of May 22, the semiconductor giant Weir shares disclosed an announcement that Shaoxing Weihao Enterprise Management Consulting Partnership (Limited Partnership), a wholly-owned enterprise, plans to increase its holdings of Beijing Junzheng (300223) shares with no more than 4 billion yuan. After holding, the cumulative number of shares held by Beijing Junzheng shall not exceed 50 million shares, which shall not exceed 10.38% of the total share capital.
In addition, recently, Tencent, Xiaomi, HSBC, AIA, etc. have all repurchased shares.