During the current year in which the United States witnessed the trial of President Donald Trump with the aim of isolating him, the outbreak of the Corona epidemic, and the fires that came to light everything, while it is on a date with a presidential election whose repercussions are unknown, it is easy to feel as if American democracy is collapsing before our eyes.
With this introduction, the American writer Lee Dortman began a lengthy article in Foreign Policy on the future of the Democratic and Republican parties, the implications of the crises that America is experiencing this year on the two-party future, and the path of democracy in the largest power in the world.
The article expects that the first decade of the 21st century will witness a great political development in the United States, noting that America has gone through political and economic crises throughout its history, and has emerged from every crisis with a transformation that was urgently needed on the political and economic levels.
History says that
According to the author, those who look into the history of America throughout the ages finds that it is undergoing a political transformation every 60 years or so, and the time has come now, and the United States is expected to witness a wave of democratic transformation from the base to the top.
He said that America has witnessed throughout its history 6 party systems, and that partisan rivalry during those eras was fairly stable, whether in the relative balance of power between the parties or in the types of issues that the parties fought for, such as the role of the government in the economy, for example, and not limited to. The last of those party systems is the current two-party system that began in 1980.
Often the divisions and realignments in elite alliances and different ideologies, usually stimulated by the crises that society is going through, are the fuel for that transformation in the party system.
The writer pointed out that the first 5 party systems that America witnessed:
The first 3 of them lasted for 24 years each, the fourth lasted 32 years and the fifth continued for 36 years, pointing out that, based on these data, the timing of the collapse of the current party system should have come now.
The inevitability of change
According to the article, the disintegration of any party system or political alliance usually requires a major event, such as if the country witnesses an economic depression or ethnic conflict on a large scale, which is what the United States is currently experiencing in its successive crises, starting with the outbreak of the Corona virus and the stifling economic crisis that resulted from it, and the demanding protests. Respecting the rights of African Americans, noting that the current party system began to crumble 4 years ago when Trump was elected President of the United States.
The writer touched on the internal division in the Democratic and Republican parties, pointing out that it may not necessarily indicate a major change in the party system, but what indicates a possible change in that system is the absence of any substantive discussion about the major questions that have defined the partisan conflict throughout its history. United State;
Among them are the role assigned to the government, the organization of the economy, and the role of the United States in the world, which is being discussed instead of in the current election campaign about the reasons for the fact that the rival party is advancing the destruction of democracy and the country, in a speech filled with racism.
The writer concluded that the current political moment in which the United States is going, including its widespread resentment, grievances and annoyance, bears many features that marked previous eras, and which resulted in democratic reform in America.