Bao Xing'an Guo Jichuan
How to coordinate and coordinate fiscal policy and monetary policy has received extensive attention.
Members of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and experts interviewed by the "Securities Daily" reporter said that fiscal policy and monetary policy are being coordinated and linked in terms of aggregate and structure to promote high-quality development of China's economy.
Yang Changchang, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and chief economist of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter that since the fourth quarter of last year, some fiscal and monetary policies have been implemented, such as fiscal policy increasing the issuance of special bonds, monetary policy Increased targeted investment further accelerated infrastructure investment and construction, driving economic development.
This year, the special debt quota has been issued ahead of schedule, and some measures have been introduced to reduce taxes and fees, reflecting that the fiscal policy is appropriately advanced.
At the press conference on fiscal reform and development held by the State Council Information Office not long ago, Minister of Finance Liu Kun said that policy efforts should be properly advanced.
In fact, it is to make good use of the policy toolbox, make sufficient advance measures, introduce policies early, and implement them early.
"From the issuance of fiscal policy and monetary policy, to the implementation of projects in various places, and then to the increase in construction volume, it is a gradual process. The policy has accelerated this process in advance." Yang Changchang introduced that fiscal policy and monetary policy are changing from the total amount. and structural coordination.
In the past, the view was that fiscal policy was a structural policy, and monetary policy was an aggregate policy, but now they both have aggregate and structural characteristics, such as fiscal policy to moderately increase the fiscal deficit, increase the scale of special bond issuance, and increase reductions. The intensity of tax and fee reduction, etc., will stimulate the economy through the adjustment of the total amount; the monetary policy will be inclined to the green financial industry, and structural support will be increased in terms of scientific and technological innovation and support for small, medium and micro enterprises.
"From the perspective of economic growth, fiscal policy emphasizes proactiveness, and monetary policy emphasizes stability. The active cooperation of the two will effectively serve national strategies, such as the 'dual carbon' strategy and the digital economy development strategy. Under the guidance of the policy, the implementation of the project will be effectively promoted." Yang Changchang said.
The key to inter- and counter-cyclical regulation is to increase effective demand. Fiscal and monetary policies are the most important and efficient means of demand management.
Tu Yonghong, dean of the Yangtze River Economic Belt Research Institute of Renmin University of China and deputy director of the International Monetary Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the peak of my country's economic investment is usually concentrated in the spring, so it is necessary to make arrangements in advance and implement more active fiscal policies and prudent measures. Monetary policy, maintain a relatively loose liquidity environment, and increase the confidence and expectations of market players in investment and consumption by reducing taxes and fees and expanding fiscal expenditure.
In 2021, my country will vigorously develop strategic emerging industries, strengthen investment in new infrastructure, stabilize manufacturing and foreign trade, and achieve a GDP growth of 8.1%.
However, my country's economic development faces triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations. The most prominent manifestations are the decline of residents' willingness to consume, the low growth rate of private investment, the unsatisfactory structure of export commodities, and the great pressure on small, medium and micro enterprises to survive.
Tu Yonghong said that from the perspective of policy effectiveness, loose monetary policy is more effective, has better short-term stimulus effect, and has a greater impact on exchange rates and capital flows, and can play a role in reducing interest rates and financing costs, stimulating investment and consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade. Positive effect; active fiscal policy has a broader and longer-term impact on enhancing corporate investment and individual consumption capacity, guiding investment direction and structural changes.
Fiscal policy and monetary policy must give full play to their respective advantages, and strengthen coordination in terms of policy direction, duration of action, and policy strength to enhance policy effectiveness.
"The information communication and policy coordination mechanism between the central bank and the financial department should be further improved, especially the dual-pillar supervision mechanism of monetary policy and macro prudence, and the healthy operation of national debt and local special bonds should be taken into consideration in monetary policy. Financial prices such as exchange rates fluctuate violently, and play a greater synergistic effect in stabilizing investment, consumption and growth expectations." Tu Yonghong suggested.
In this regard, Song Xiangqing, deputy dean of the Beijing Normal University Government Management Research Institute and director of the Industrial Economic Research Center, also holds a similar view.
He believes that the coordination and linkage of fiscal policy and monetary policy will help enhance market confidence and help market players increase production and investment.
Improve the stability, directionality, preemptiveness and predictability of fiscal and monetary policies within a certain period of time, and promote enterprises to become the main body of enhancing market confidence and stabilizing social employment through the inward force and continuous increase of effective monetary funds. Lay a solid foundation for achieving high-quality economic development.
Song Xiangqing suggested that fiscal policy and monetary policy should be appropriately inclined to market guidance and consumption traction, so that domestic demand can accumulate more energy in the new round of development. By stimulating market vitality, tapping consumption potential, increasing the turnover frequency of goods and services, and building new services development pattern.
At the same time, it is appropriate to tilt towards high-tech innovative enterprises, especially to support a large number of specialized and new "little giant" enterprises to accelerate the take-off of the manufacturing industry.
(Securities Daily)