Food prices rose in the third quarter, experts believe that the
three major staple food prices are still within a reasonable range
Our reporter Qiao Jinliang
At present, harvesting of autumn grains is gradually unfolding from south to north, and grain prices have become a hot spot of social concern.
Imports of wheat have increased significantly compared with last year. Will it affect my country's wheat market?
The northeast region was hit by a typhoon in a "three combo", how much impact did it have on the corn market?
Why did the price of early rice move higher this year, and what will happen to the price trend of mid-late rice in the later period?
In response to the above issues, a reporter from the Economic Daily interviewed Tang Ke, Director of the Department of Market and Economic Information of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
Tang Ke said that in the third quarter, my country's food prices recovered and the fluctuations were still within a reasonable range.
This year, the summer grain and early rice have been harvested, and the autumn grain harvest is a foregone conclusion. There is a solid foundation for maintaining the stable operation of the agricultural product market.
In the later period, autumn grains in various regions will gradually enter the centralized listing period. Under the fundamentals of high grain yields and sufficient stocks throughout the year, it is unlikely that grain prices will rise or fall sharply.
All aspects should take a comprehensive and rational view of market fluctuations. Farmers should rationally arrange the rhythm of grain sales and sell them at a good price to avoid the loss of bad grains caused by improper storage. Traders and processing companies do not need to stock up and buy them, and they should prevent speculation. risks of.
In terms of wheat, after the listing of new wheat this year, supported by multiple favorable factors, prices have risen steadily.
There are three reasons. The first is that Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Henan have successively launched the implementation plan for the minimum purchase price of wheat, forming a bottom support; the second is that the price of corn has increased significantly, and the demand for wheat feed has increased, which has a significant impact on the price; Due to the impact of the epidemic, the market's bullish expectations have increased, and some large grain growers and traders are reluctant to sell, and short-term grain sources are tight.
Generally speaking, the increase in wheat prices is a recovery increase in the continuous increase in production costs and years of low food prices. The increase is not very large and belongs to the normal fluctuation range.
According to Tang Ke, since mid-July, the state has increased the minimum purchase price of wheat, and the market has sufficient grain supply. Some traders have been reluctant to sell, and wheat prices have gradually stabilized.
In September, ordinary wheat at the Zhengzhou Grain Wholesale Market was 1.20 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.7% from the previous month, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 5.9%.
At present, the country’s wheat stocks have exceeded one year’s consumption, and the government’s ability to regulate reserves is strong enough to fully guarantee the supply of rations in the market. Later, as autumn grains are launched in large quantities, wheat prices will remain stable.
Due to the better domestic market, wheat imports have increased significantly.
According to customs statistics, from January to August, my country's cumulative wheat imports were 4.99 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 137%.
However, the absolute amount of imports has not increased much, and the proportion of imports in my country’s output and consumption is still very low. Moreover, high-quality strong-gluten and weak-gluten wheat are mainly used for variety adjustment to meet the increasing demand for bakery food processing. The impact of the operation of the wheat market in my country is small.
With regard to corn, prices have continued to rise this year due to demand growth and market speculation. In August, the average wholesale price in the production area and sales area reached 2,270 yuan and 2,444 yuan per ton, respectively, which was a new high since the reform of the corn purchasing and storage system in 2016. However, after entering September, with the gradual listing of new corn and the gradual release of temporary storage auction corn, the price has shown a trend of seasonal decline. The monthly average wholesale price in the producing areas in September was 2222 yuan per ton, a month-on-month decrease. 2.1%.
"This year's corn sown area is basically stable, and the overall growth is good. At the end of August and early September, the northeast production area suffered three consecutive typhoons, and corn lodging in some areas. However, when the typhoon occurred, the corn growth in most areas had entered the middle and late stages of wax maturity. It has been basically formed, and the unaffected areas are growing well. The total corn output is expected to increase steadily this year." Tang Ke said that as the number of corn in the main producing areas gradually increases in the later period, the temporary storage of corn is out of the warehouse, and traders accelerate the sale Grain stocks, as well as imported corn and substitutes have gradually arrived in Hong Kong. The supply situation of the corn market will gradually become loose. In the short term, prices are expected to remain stable or fall slightly.
In terms of rice, this year the state issued a series of policies to support grain production, raised the minimum purchase price for early rice and mid-late indica rice, and integrated more than 4 billion yuan to support the resumption of double-cropping rice production in the main early rice producing areas. After many years of continuous decline in the planting area of early rice Resumption of growth. Although the average yield of early rice has declined due to the floods in the south, the total output has increased.
The reason for the high price of early rice is mainly due to the increase in demand for reserves and replenishment from the central and local governments, while the market has relatively few high-quality grain sources. The increase in the minimum purchase price also supports the price.
"In these years, rice prices have generally declined, and farmers have basically not made money from planting early rice. This year, prices have resumed to rise, which is conducive to protecting farmers' enthusiasm for planting early rice." Tang Ke said.
At present, the new-season mid-late indica rice in southern China has started to go on the market one after another. Market players are actively purchasing, and the price is generally higher and stable. It is expected that the market trend in the later period will be similar to that of early rice. The price characteristics are more obvious.
Due to the current national rice inventory is sufficient, more than one year's consumption, and this year's rice harvest is a foregone conclusion, the market supply is fully guaranteed, and the possibility of a sharp increase in prices in the later period is unlikely.
Qiao Jinliang